September 2023

[wthrmn654]

4 hours ago, nycwinter said:

i have had a the heat quite a few times before this weekend even in manhattan..

Your not old enough to be constantly cold like my parents and grandparents are you?!

[JerseyWx]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

And yet incredibly boring 

Relatively, yeah.  But I have to say this summer did have some pretty intense storms here, one of which produced some of the heaviest rain I've seen, and for the longest duration.  Naturally early fall is one of the more quiet times around here, as you don't really have much going on besides this kind of crap like we had this weekend.

[bluewave]

Just add 2° to the NYC September average temperature to compensate for the artificial cooling from the trees. Notice how much warmer the downtown NYC average temperatures have been this month. Even Montauk is several degrees warmer this month. The the new WTC station at Liberty Park is 2° warmer and it right on the water. So  the actual temperature in Central Park away from the trees will finish above 70° in September.

 

https://facilityexecutive.com/world-trade-center-weather-station-offers-insights-for-facilities/

Monthly Data for September 2023 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Mean Avg Temperature
NY	PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL	ICAO	74.7
NY	WORLD TRADE CENTER	WBAN	73.9
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	73.6
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	73.5
NY	MONTAUK AIRPORT	WBAN	73.3
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	73.0
NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	72.2
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	72.0
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	71.8
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	71.8
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	71.7

[CIK62]

The last 6 days of September are averaging   61degs.(55/67) or -5.

Month to date is   71.8[+1.5].     September should end at   69.6[+0.3].

Reached 68 yesterday at 2pm.

Today:   58-62, wine ne.-breezy, Showers, 56 tomorrow AM.

61*(99%RH) here at 7am.     61* at 9am.       63* at 2pm.

[SACRUS]

 

61 / 61 3.95 total from this past 3 days.  Grey skies nothing but grey skies.  Showers and clouds continue this 4th day.  Ophelia or what's left of will depart later tonight and Tue (9/26) PM with scattered showers persisting. 

Beyond there the Atlantic ridge keeps flow stagnant on the EC and ridgig into Canada keeps flow easterly.   Would not surprise me for cut off low to bring more rain chances between 9/25 - 10/2/.

Beyond there the flow comes around with perhaps a two surge of stronger warmth before an overall warmer than normal into early October.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 91 (1970)
NYC: 90 (1970)
LGA: 90 (2010)


Lows:

EWR: 39 (1950) 2nd record low sub 40 in sep.
NYC: 40 (1887)
LGA: 42 (1950)


Historical:

 

1848: The Great Gale of 1848 was the most severe hurricane to affect Tampa Bay, Florida and is one of two major hurricanes to make landfall in the area. This storm produced the highest storm tide ever experienced in Tampa Bay when the water rose 15 feet in six to eight hours.
 

1939 - A west coast hurricane moved onshore south of Los Angeles bringing unprecedented rains along the southern coast of California. Nearly five and a half inches of rain drenched Los Angeles during a 24 hour period. The hurricane caused two million dollars damage, mostly to structures along the coast and to crops, and claimed 45 lives at sea. ""El Cordonazo"" produced 5.66 inches of rain at Los Angeles and 11.6 inches of rain at Mount Wilson, both records for the month of September. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1942: From September 24th through the 26th, 1942, an early-season winter storm moved through the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi River Valley, and Great Lakes, dropping measurable snow as it went.  In many places across Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and northern Illinois, this was their earliest measurable snow on record. 
 

1987 - Hurricane Emily crossed the island of Bermuda during the early morning. Emily, moving northeast at 45 mph, produced wind gusts to 115 mph at Kindley Field. The thirty-five million dollars damage inflicted by Emily made it the worst hurricane to strike Bermuda since 1948. Parts of Michigan and Wisconsin experienced their first freeze of the autumn. Snow and sleet were reported in the Sheffield and Sutton areas of northeastern Vermont at midday. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Low pressure off the Northern Pacific Coast brought rain and gale force winds to the coast of Washington State. Fair weather prevailed across most of the rest of the nation. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Twenty-three cities in the south central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Topeka KS with a reading of 33 degrees, and Binghamton NY with a low of 25 degrees. Showers and thunderstorms in the southeastern U.S. drenched Atlanta GA with 4.87 inches of rain, their sixth highest total of record for any given day. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1998: Four hurricanes were spinning simultaneously in the Atlantic basin: Georges, Ivan, Jeanne, and Karl. That was the first time this had happened since 1893.

 

2015: Fairbanks, Alaska received 4–9 inches of snow. Another storm on September 27-30 produced 14.2 inches, including 11.2 inches on the 29th. September 2015 would end up being Fairbanks's second snowiest September on record with 20.9 inches.

 

2015: An EF2 tornado tracked nearly seven miles across Johns Island in South Carolina. 

 

 

[MANDA]

Three day rainfall total here = 3.16".  Still ongoing mist and drizzle.

[wdrag]

On 9/24/2023 at 9:30 AM, wdrag said:

Adding this for a a late week tease by the EPS

GEPS the only model on board for this significant additional coastal flood/rain event as GEFS has progressed seaward.  EPS still an option but I haven't seen the 06z/25 EPS trend.   For now,  I keep this potential on the table as a likely event for NJ/LI southward.  There is the option for a non event but what I'm seeing right now even in the GFS...daily minor coastal flooding NJ coast for the week, with a chance for a moderate Tuesday afternoon-evening high tide and this without the mid Atlantic low pressure at the end of the week. 

[wdrag]

CoCoRaHs two day totals as also posted under Ophelia topic. Ignore the 13.31 typos in sw CT. Undoubted some 5+ on the southern and northwest edge of of the NYC subforum... so far. 

[Stormlover74]

wet weekend on the ukie and cmc

[Stormlover74]

Euro wet but gone by Friday afternoon

 

[winterwx21]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro wet but gone by Friday afternoon

 

Yeah we probably have some wet weather coming in for Thursday into Friday, but hopefully it'll be out of the way in time for the weekend. Euro and GFS have a dry weekend. CMC dries it out for late Saturday and Sunday. Right now I would lean towards a dry Saturday, but the models have been going back and forth. It's questionable right now. 

[MANDA]

Getting closer little by little and day by day.

[the_other_guy]

it feels like November out. Raw. Damp right to the bone. 

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

it feels like November out. Raw. Damp right to the bone. 

Yeah, Saturday was the 4th coldest high temperature departure of the year so far at HPN.  Anytime we get at least -10 for high or low departure it really stands out these days. 
 

Data for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature Departure
2023-02-04	-16.1
2023-02-25	-15.3
2023-04-29	-14.4
2023-09-23	-12.7
2023-05-03	-10.7
2023-08-24	-10.2
2023-04-28	-10.1
2023-05-04	-10.0

 

[Rtd208]

A good portion of the NYC metro area is pretty water logged with all the recent rain we have had. Something to consider going forward if we get more storms/heavy rainfall especially in the short and medium range.

[wdrag]

More coming...maybe a stripe of 1/4-1/2" between now and Noon Tuesday parts of CT, LI, NJ.  FFG has decreased to generally 1.5-2" in 6 hours se NYS, portions of interior CT and NNJ. So that won't improve- dry out for a while. 

Additionally at least two models (18z-GFS and 12z EC have spotty 2-3" the Night-Fri) at the nose of the inverted trough. Interesting through Friday for wind/rain/(coastal flood episodes at the higher of the daily high tide cycles in NJ) as well spotty minor river flooding CT/NYS.

 

posted 634P/25

 

[JerseyWx]

Approaching 2.5" here.  Really hoping the rain Friday clears out early so we get a nice weekend.  Been a miserable three days and it's not like tomorrow is looking nice either.

[qg_omega]

Not sure why there is talk of a dry pattern, looks like rain every few days

[donsutherland1]

Ophelia's remaining showers will depart tomorrow. Afterward, drier air will return to the region. Additional rain is possible on Friday.

In the wake of Ophelia, cooler than normal weather will continue through much of the remainder of the month. As a result, September now looks to wind up near normal to somewhat warmer than normal. In the medium and longer range, a warmer than normal pattern will likely develop in eastern North America as October begins.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around September 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.55°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -5.11 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.054 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.5° (0.3° above normal).

 

[SRRTA22]

@nycwinter I thought we'd be in one hoodie territory by now, not two! 

It feels good to have an old school fall again (even if it's short lived and we torch October) 

[CIK62]

The last 5 days of September are averaging   62degs.(57/66) or -4.

Month to date is   71.4[+1.2].     September should end at   69.8[+0.5].

Reached 63 here yesterday at 1:30pm.

Today:   58-63, wind ne.-breezy, m. cloudy, 55 tomorrow AM.

59*(90%RH) here at 7am{was 58* at midnight}.     60* at 9am.     61* at Noon.

[EastonSN+]

I love the fact that we are heading into an El nino winter, however as we all know we have had some real furnace el ninos as well. 

One question I have is how does this El nino look CURRENTLY compared to ninos of the past?

I believe 1997 (or 1998) was a strong El nino, however it was one rain storm after another. The constant rain kept overall temps a bit cool otherwise who knows how warm it would have been.

Looking at last winter, the RNA overruled a decent block. Also, and I am guessing here, I believe the blocking placement allowed high pressures to move east when storms "arrived". I believe more of a ride east of us would have helped lock in high pressure.

History has a way repeating, just hope it's more 95/1996 than 1997.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Interesting radar over nyc area, simultaneously have east and west moving showers. 

[SACRUS]

 

58 / 54 and total of 4.19 since Friday - coming on 100 straight hours of mostly cloudy weather and likely get to 120 before sun returns or at least partially on Wed for a few hours.  Hung up pattern keeping it cloudy, misty and very unpleasant (well for most that is).  Flow comes around a to the NW/W by Mon 10/2 - Wed (10/14) but still see signs pf onshore and potential cut offs.  Overall warmer with a day or two of stronger warmth.  Still think we ride the wet side as the flow is still botteled up into the EC.  

 

 

[Stormlover74]

I turned the heat on 

[guinness77]

Literally couldn’t have picked a worse week to be off. This weather is frustrating. 

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Interesting radar over nyc area, simultaneously have east and west moving showers. 

The center of the low that once was Ophelia is now undiscernable, at least via radar or satellite.  The last I saw, it was exiting the Jersey Coast, somewhere around Belmar?  Obviously it is not going anywhere too fast.

[nycwinter]

hoodie and a jacket wearing season last few days..

[lee59]

This will be the 12th straight day of below normal temperatures at Central Park and probably all other nearby stations but I have not checked.