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Hurricane Idalia


hlcater
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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like HAFS-A and HAFS-B have landfall in Apalachee Bay just near and SE of Newport FL.

And HMON right on top of their positions -- remarkable agreement. 

EDIT: And the HWRF also in virtually the exact same spot  -- slight timing differences, but tracks are the same. 

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1 minute ago, beanskip said:

And HMON right on top of their positions -- remarkable agreement. 

EDIT: And the HWRF also in virtually the exact same spot  -- slight timing differences, but tracks are the same. 

I thought all these models are based off the GFS?

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Could be faulty radar data, but northern eyewall may have temporarily opened up. Towers firing on the southern eyewall will probably fix this issue. BTW, BYX, and IR all show some sort of weakness in the northern eyewall. That being said, the VHTs on the southern eyewall are cranking and this will probably be solved quickly. 

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Another Tornado Warning for the Marco Island, FL area, this one until 2pm. 

edit: another one just north, covering most of the Collier County coast. 

earlier the local news station was on scene in Ft. Myers Beach, i would say about 6-10" of water on the roads.

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Water temp at this buoy 112m NW of Tampa is 88F. This is about 2 to 3* above the August average for that location.  Combined with the low shear and upper level trough enhancement, pretty ideal setup up until landfall. Not sure I would expect any weakening. In fact, this looks pretty ideal for some explosive strengthening tonight. Perhaps more so than even forecasted. Not looking too good. If we see anymore trends west TLH could see some wild winds.

 

NDBC - Station 42036 Recent Data (noaa.gov)

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22 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

About 18 hours away from landfall give or take. 2mb drop in pressure per hour puts this thing around 940mb by landfall. 

~975mb seems to be a a common spot where RI starts.  Happened with Micheal, IDA, Laura, Dorian and too many other for me to list.

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I know the focus in on FL but the 12Z runs are really bad news for GA.

Valdosta and Savannah could be looking at direct hits and metro Atlanta would get alot more weather (depending upon how bad the west side of the cane is) than it appeared 24 hours ago.

Atlanta has a huge tree canopy so high winds and heavy rain could lead to alot of power outages.

Also, the entire GA coast would be on the dirty side and have onshore action along the barrier islands.

 

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