Hurricane Idalia

[jacindc]

Earlier TWC showed video of street flooding in Ft. Myers Beach. Hope people up the coast who won't "take a direct hit" are noting that.

[hlcater]

Eye diameter on radar is about 10nm at 20,000ft so it is likely ~9.5nm at flight level and we had a drop of probably 3-4mb between passes. From 972 to probably 968ish. Looks like its go time.

 

Update: 968 confirmed. That's a big pressure drop.

[Hotair]

965 mb

[Hotair]

[Doc Jon]

Lightning in the eyewall again - North and even Western sides too, looks like she's getting ornery!

[hawkeye_wx]

4 mb drop in last 1 hour 24 minutes.

[WxWatcher007]

Latest VDM with interesting characterization of the eye

 

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 22:11Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Name: Idalia
Storm Number & Year: 10 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 21:44:51Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.28N 84.74W
B. Center Fix Location: 180 statute miles (290 km) to the W (262°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 968mb (28.59 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 65° at 4kts (From the ENE at 5mph)
F. Eye Character: Ragged
G. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
G. Inner Eye Diameter: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
G. Outer Eye Diameter: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 84kts (96.7mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the E (99°) of center fix at 21:41:47Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 181° at 103kts (From the S at 118.5mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the E (95°) of center fix at 21:40:55Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 64kts (73.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the WSW (244°) of center fix at 21:46:18Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 313° at 64kts (From the NW at 73.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WSW (242°) of center fix at 21:47:27Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,458m (8,064ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,460m (8,071ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 103kts (~ 118.5mph) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the E (95°) from the flight level center at 21:40:55Z

[Tezeta]

Concentric eyes 

[hlcater]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Latest VDM with interesting characterization of the eye

 

 

Can see that on radar. Though it doesn't look like an EWRC to me. Looks like growing pains of inner core organization.

Also supported by the fact that there is no outer wind maxima visible on the aircraft data.

[Windspeed]

Concentric eyes 

It's clearly due to me posting that there isn't time for an ERC prior to landfall. Murphy's Law. The eyewall appears to be intensifying, perhaps a merger? Perhaps the outer banding is involved in the new impressive bursts. At any rate, the pressure is falling, not steady state or rising, so no clue.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[wkd]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, not physiologically, but it does tell us areas that are perhaps more geographically prone than others...like Hateras vs the Georgia coast.

Appreciate the response but I don't see how this applies to the current situation. Hatteras and also the Capes in New England will certainly experience more adverse effects from coastal storms due to their eastward location.  But how does that apply to the current situation in the Gulf?

[Nibor]

Composite from the past 10 hours.

[CoastalWx]

31 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

That should settle the question on it being deserving of 100mph. That’s close enough. 

At the time though it’s a little stretch to go 85 kts from 91 kts from FL winds. That was over 90 min ago too. 

[wkd]

Just now, Nibor said:

Composite from the past 10 hours.

What is your radar source?

[CoastalWx]

Definitely a better appearance on radar and satellite. 

[Nibor]

Just now, wkd said:

What is your radar source?

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-E_Gulf_Coast-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Have fun. One of my favorite storm resources.

[Chinook]

Here is the radar image, showing wind gusts measured up to 49mph in the last hour. Maximum radar base velocity of 87kt toward the radar and 69kt away from KTBW.

 

 

[Random Chaos]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At the time though it’s a little stretch to go 85 kts from 91 kts from FL winds. That was over 90 min ago too. 

There was an eyewall dropsonde before NHC said 100mph that measured 98kt winds at 955mb (less than 1000 ft above surface). Suspect that’s what they used. 
 

 

There is now a new dropsonde with 110kt winds about 1700ft above surface (921mb):

 

[Windspeed]

There has been a dryslot on the western semicircle of the core for much of the late afternoon. But the eastern semicircle looks more like a merger over the past hour. There exist some very intense wrapping cells at present.

[George BM]

5 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

9 mb pressure drop (965 w/22 kt wind) in a little less than 2 hours.

It's actually 968mb at the surface on that sonde... there's just no wind data at the very surface for some reason... so probably good for 967/966mb.

[beanskip]

Close to nowcasting, but still some value from 18z runs imo. Both of the HAFS are reflecting the failure of Idalia to get west of 85.0 and are now showing slightly more eastern solutions. Every inch, foot and mile matters for the angle of approach and the windfield for Wakulla's coast, Tallahassee and others. 

[gymengineer]

3 minutes ago, George BM said:

It's actually 968mb at the surface on that sonde... there's just no wind data at the very surface for some reason... so probably good for 967/966mb.

Whoops, glanced too quick. Thanks for pointing that out!

[David Reimer]

 

[Rtd208]

 

[wkd]

25 minutes ago, Nibor said:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-E_Gulf_Coast-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Have fun. One of my favorite storm resources.

I've been using COD radar for a long time but I still can't understand how you get to this radar graphic.  What Nexrad should I click on?

[Buddy1987]

Pretty crazy how quick convection has managed to wrap around the eyewall just within the last 30 min approx. Looking forward to reports as the evening progresses. 

[friedmators]

1 minute ago, wkd said:

I've been using COD radar for a long time but I still can't understand how you get to this radar graphic.  What Nexrad should I click on?

subregional..choose off FL then click nexrad

[Nibor]

3 minutes ago, wkd said:

I've been using COD radar for a long time but I still can't understand how you get to this radar graphic.  What Nexrad should I click on?

Sub regional sectors > Mosaic Radar

[CoastalWx]

TBW radar definitely showing convection wrapping around now. Yeah