Nibor Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 New towers firing along the western part of the eye wall. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Looks like HAFS-A and HAFS-B have landfall in Apalachee Bay just near and SE of Newport FL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like HAFS-A and HAFS-B have landfall in Apalachee Bay just near and SE of Newport FL. And HMON right on top of their positions -- remarkable agreement. EDIT: And the HWRF also in virtually the exact same spot -- slight timing differences, but tracks are the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerseyshorewxguy Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 minute ago, beanskip said: And HMON right on top of their positions -- remarkable agreement. EDIT: And the HWRF also in virtually the exact same spot -- slight timing differences, but tracks are the same. St Mark's bullseye. Wonder if the lighthouse survives. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpljr77 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 7 minutes ago, Nibor said: New towers firing along the western part of the eye wall. Does anyone have a good webcam in the Keys? Looks like they're getting some action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 minute ago, beanskip said: And HMON right on top of their positions -- remarkable agreement. EDIT: And the HWRF also in virtually the exact same spot -- slight timing differences, but tracks are the same. I thought all these models are based off the GFS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 https://x.com/nwstallahassee/status/1696544257451216896?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Definitely an eye poking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 We are now getting a nice burst of lightning in the eyewall. It's really looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: We are now getting a nice burst of lightning in the eyewall. It's really looking good. That was gonna be my exact question. If lightning was occuring in the eye wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Could be faulty radar data, but northern eyewall may have temporarily opened up. Towers firing on the southern eyewall will probably fix this issue. BTW, BYX, and IR all show some sort of weakness in the northern eyewall. That being said, the VHTs on the southern eyewall are cranking and this will probably be solved quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Another Tornado Warning for the Marco Island, FL area, this one until 2pm. edit: another one just north, covering most of the Collier County coast. earlier the local news station was on scene in Ft. Myers Beach, i would say about 6-10" of water on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Anyone notice all that lightning cropping up in the core of Idalia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Solid core developing now. TPC forecast of 125 mph landfall looks solid. I'd say landfall is before daybreak tomorrow, a little sooner that TPC 11am Advisory suggests. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 About 18 hours away from landfall give or take. 2mb drop in pressure per hour puts this thing around 940mb by landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Euro also right where HAFS-A and HAFS-B are. near and just SE of Newport FL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Euro edged west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 I’m down in Orlando for this one. We were supposed to fly back tomorrow morning but we moved it to Friday as a precaution. Only expecting some outer bands here but there’s at least a marginal tornado threat. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Water temp at this buoy 112m NW of Tampa is 88F. This is about 2 to 3* above the August average for that location. Combined with the low shear and upper level trough enhancement, pretty ideal setup up until landfall. Not sure I would expect any weakening. In fact, this looks pretty ideal for some explosive strengthening tonight. Perhaps more so than even forecasted. Not looking too good. If we see anymore trends west TLH could see some wild winds. NDBC - Station 42036 Recent Data (noaa.gov) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Please keep the banter where it belongs 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 With the intermediate 2pm advisory from NHC, the storm surge forecast from Wakulla coastline has been upped to the 7 to 11 foot range. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 It's worth following Chris's account on Twitter. He is in charge of the Wisconsin mesonet and a form lightning scientist for Vailasia (sp?) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Looking like all systems go with not much to slow down a "RI until landfall" scenario. Going to be some insane tree damages wherever this comes ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 22 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: About 18 hours away from landfall give or take. 2mb drop in pressure per hour puts this thing around 940mb by landfall. ~975mb seems to be a a common spot where RI starts. Happened with Micheal, IDA, Laura, Dorian and too many other for me to list. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 minute ago, Amped said: ~975mb seems to be a a common spot where RI starts. Happened with Micheal, IDA, Laura, Dorian and too many other for me to list. 12Z Intensity models drop pressure to 945-955 range at landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamblinRed Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 I know the focus in on FL but the 12Z runs are really bad news for GA. Valdosta and Savannah could be looking at direct hits and metro Atlanta would get alot more weather (depending upon how bad the west side of the cane is) than it appeared 24 hours ago. Atlanta has a huge tree canopy so high winds and heavy rain could lead to alot of power outages. Also, the entire GA coast would be on the dirty side and have onshore action along the barrier islands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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