August 2023

[TriPol]

9 hours ago, Dan76 said:

LOL the blue stuff 

The 384 hour GFS has upgraded from shrooms to crack!

[Snowlover11]

man its dark as hell outside, if you told me we would be slammed by storms i’d believe you.  definitely has that look.

[MJO812]

Very dreary day today 

[Brasiluvsnow]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Very dreary day today 

Don't worry Ant, It will be snowing soon 

[CIK62]

The last 8 days of August are averaging   73degs.(66/80) or -1.

Month to date is   75.4[-1.2].      August should end at   75.0[-1.1]

Reached 78 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:   71-75, wind e. to s., m. cloudy, Rain after 6pm, 70 by tomorrow AM.

71*(75%RH) here at 7am.      73* at Noon.      down to 70* at 1pm.     69* at 2pm.       68* at 3pm.

[SACRUS]

 

71 / 60 and cloudy with showers.  Kind of stuck in the muck the next two or so days showers clouds.  Weekend looks ok but would watch for any changes.   Trough into the NE to close the month near normal and additional rain chances Tue (8/29) and Wed (8/30).  Euro with storm into the FL pan handle again on the 00Z / GFS no storm. 

 

Sep will see if ridging can build into the EC.  Sep 1 - 10 near / above normal.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

 

EWR: 95 (1947)
NYC: 94 (1972)
LGA: 93 (2020)


Lows:

EWR: 52 (1940)
NYC: 52 (1890)
LGA: 55 (1971)

 

Historical:

 

1906 - A cloudburst deluged Guinea, VA, with more than nine inches of rain in just forty minutes. (David Ludlum)

1968 - Lightning struck the Crawford County fairgrounds in northwest Pennsylvania killing two persons and injuring 72 others. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Autumn-like weather prevailed across the north central and northeastern U.S. Seven cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Saint Cloud MN with a low of 37 degrees. Temperatures in Florida soared to 98 degrees at Pensacola and 99 degrees at Jacksonville. Thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the Southern High Plains Region, with 5.40 inches at Union NM, and 7.25 inches reported west of Anthony NM. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms in the Delaware Valley of eastern Pennsylvania produced wind gusts to 95 mph around Philadelphia, and gusts to 100 mph at Warminster. A tropical depression drenched the Cabo Rojo area of southwestern Puerto Rico with up to ten inches of rain. San Juan received 5.35 inches of rain. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in eastern Montana and western sections of the Dakotas. Thunderstorms in Montana produced wind gusts to 76 mph at Jordan, and golf ball size hail at Rock Springs, which collected three to four feet deep in ditches. Lewiston ID reported a record 1.50 inches of rain for the date, and a record rainfall total for August of 2.63 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1992: Hurricane Andrew made landfall in southern Florida at 4:30 AM on this day. The high winds caused catastrophic damage in Florida, with Miami-Dade County cities of Florida City, Homestead, and Cutler Ridge receiving the brunt of the storm. About 63,000 homes were destroyed, and over 101,000 others were damaged. This storm left roughly 175,000 people homeless. As many as 1.4 million people were left without electricity at the height of the storm. In the Everglades, 70,000 acres (280 km2) of trees were knocked down. Additionally, rainfall in Florida was substantial, peaking at 13.98 in (355 mm) in western Miami-Dade County. About $25 billion in damage and 44 fatalities were reported in Florida.

 

[nycwinter]

this is what humidity feels like  i almost had forgotten after a few low dewpoint days..

[MJO812]

Raining 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Pretty cool if you look at the current radar, lower level returns from the south passing through upper level returns from the north west

[Volcanic Winter]

5 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Don't worry Ant, It will be snowing soon 

I’m SO hyped to be in here with you guys late fall and winter again. Even when it’s a shitshow (especially when?), this place is always amusing. And genuinely AmericanWX has one of the smartest groups of individuals I’ve ever interacted with online. 

Let’s get that snow this year, but hey at least the company ain’t bad either. 

[psv88]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Pretty cool if you look at the current radar, lower level returns from the south passing through upper level returns from the north west

Waterspout off the jersey shore before

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Waterspout off the jersey shore before

Makes allot of sense, lots of effective shear. 
meanwhile poring sheet drizzle on the uws put an end to my day working outside. 

[Stormlover74]

Surprised no mention of heavy rain tomorrow morning in upton's forecast. Hrrr and nam are both quite wet although 3knam is less so

[Brian5671]

18z NAM a drencher tonight/tomorrow AM

[Stormlover74]

Upton discussion

Another shortwave traversing within the NW flow aloft between the heat ridge across the central states and troughing over the North Atlantic will approach. An MCS will likely develop with this shortwave as it moves out of the Great Lakes region tonight. There is still fairly high confidence that the majority of this complex will pass well to our west across PA following the greater instability and along and west of the warm front.

However, there will also be a 30-40 kt LLJ over the northeast and New England overnight into Friday morning. Showers will increase in coverage during this time associated with the LLJ and warm advection. While the majority of the convective complex moves to the west, a weaker, more stratified eastern edge may push through NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley and portions of the NYC metro. The combination of these features support widespread showers late tonight into Friday morning. PWATs should reach 1.75-2 inches and there will be a deep warm cloud layer of around 13 kft, supporting locally heavy rainfall potential. Low level lapse rates may be fairly steep, but surface instability will be limited by a cap/inversion around 6-8 kft. There is enough elevated instability to support some embedded thunder

[qg_omega]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

18z NAM a drencher tonight/tomorrow AM

[brooklynwx99]

18 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

for where he lives, that's still a soaker

[Stormlover74]

Hrrr quite wet west and south of the city

 

[donsutherland1]

Showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight and tomorrow. A prolonged stretch of generally cooler than normal readings will continue through at least the end of the month.

Meanwhile, Chicago reached a daily record-tying 100° today. Houston (109°) and Alexandria, LA (110°) tied their all-time records. In Europe, more than 75 cities in France set new all-time high temperature records.

In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week or two of September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around August 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.17°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -12.93 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.742 today.

On August 22 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.931 (RMM). The August 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.865 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.4° (1.7° below normal).

 

[weathermedic]

4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Upton discussion

Another shortwave traversing within the NW flow aloft between the heat ridge across the central states and troughing over the North Atlantic will approach. An MCS will likely develop with this shortwave as it moves out of the Great Lakes region tonight. There is still fairly high confidence that the majority of this complex will pass well to our west across PA following the greater instability and along and west of the warm front.

However, there will also be a 30-40 kt LLJ over the northeast and New England overnight into Friday morning. Showers will increase in coverage during this time associated with the LLJ and warm advection. While the majority of the convective complex moves to the west, a weaker, more stratified eastern edge may push through NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley and portions of the NYC metro. The combination of these features support widespread showers late tonight into Friday morning. PWATs should reach 1.75-2 inches and there will be a deep warm cloud layer of around 13 kft, supporting locally heavy rainfall potential. Low level lapse rates may be fairly steep, but surface instability will be limited by a cap/inversion around 6-8 kft. There is enough elevated instability to support some embedded thunder

Line of strong to severe storms developing over the Great Lakes. Will see what holds together and how far it makes it.

[Stormlover74]

Hrrr has been shifting the heaviest north and east

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Hrrr has been shifting the heaviest north and east

Other models showing the heavier amounts to the north too. It's looking as if our area could be near the sharp cutoff. We could get just a quarter inch or 1 to 2 inches. 

[Stormlover74]

31 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Other models showing the heavier amounts to the north too. It's looking as if our area could be near the sharp cutoff. We could get just a quarter inch or 1 to 2 inches. 

Yeah rgem is like a quarter inch for us

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.14" of rain for the day.

Current temp 70/DP 69/RH 96%

[Stormlover74]

Quite a nice batch of heavy rain moving through 

[Maureen]

47 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Quite a nice batch of heavy rain moving through 

Yes, we’ve got about .73 so far, along with some lightning and distant rumblings. 

[Stormlover74]

Just hit 1" here for this batch plus what fell last evening. Should clear 1.25 before this wraps up in an hour or so 

[dmillz25]

Pouring here in the UWS