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July 2023


Stormlover74
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21 hours ago, gravitylover said:

So I'm picturing a Cat 4 or 5 energized by 95° water beating up the GOM, transiting FL while it's looking for some Gulf Stream Good Juice and then running up the coast, following that pretty red ribbon, hammering 50 million people in the US before restrengthening off the Canadian coast and causing outright mayhem as it sits and spins groovin' on the bathtub water.

No? 

Don set a new record for furthest north development near the record warm pool in July.

 

 

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Found this interesting. ISP has hit 80° or above 25 days in a row now, today will be 26, which is the 6th longest streak on record. By Saturday, it will be at least 31 days. That'll make it tied with last year for 4th place. Last year's would have been the longest on record with 65 days in a row, however, just one day, August 1st, 2022, was below 80°. It's interesting that we have a streak this year this long considering there was only one 90 degree day with a max of 91°. All other years had heat 95°+.

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 80
for Islip Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Dates
1 41 2010-07-02 through 2010-08-11
2 33 2022-06-29 through 2022-07-31
- 33 1966-06-27 through 1966-07-29
4 31 2022-08-02 through 2022-09-01
5 27 2019-06-26 through 2019-07-22
6 25 2023-06-28 through 2023-07-22
- 25 1988-07-25 through 1988-08-18
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Mainly dry and warm weather will continue through Tuesday. Afterward, there is growing potential for the development of a heatwave in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. At present, the potential heatwave does not appear to be a prolonged affair.

An extreme heat event continues to grip the Southwest. Las Vegas registered its record-tying 10th consecutive 110° day. Phoenix extended its record to 24 consecutive 110° days. El Paso's 100° streak reached 38 days.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around July 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.97°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -22.71 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.894 today.

On July 21 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.346 (RMM). The July 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.032 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.4° (1.9° above normal).

 

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The last 8 days of July are averaging   82degs.(72/92) or +4.

Month to date is    79.2[+1.8].       July should end at    80.0[+2.4].

Reached 86 here yesterday at 3pm.

Today:   83-88, wind w. to s., p. cloudy, 73 tomorrow AM.

75*(71%RH) here at 7am{was 74 earlier}.      80* at Noon.      81* at 2pm.     83*at 4pm.       85* at 6pm.       78* at 8pm.

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43 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I made it to 59.5 for a low this weekend, which feels unbelievable in light of how warm nights have been since July began. 

 

Was really the first decent weekend in awhile-others have had rain on at last one day or terrible humidity

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75 / 66 and mostly cloudy with some showers into P and SNJ.  Scattered showers into the region. Low - mid 80s (if enough sun).  Tue (7/25) transition back to a very humid and hot is commpleting as the W. Atlantic Ridge expands west and splits the trough.  Some potential widespread showers and storms Tue PM. 

Wed (7/26) - Sun (7/30) the heat is on as sw flow pulls the western heat east 850 mb tmps >18c and near or peaking >20c Fri (7/28) / Sat (7/29).  W. Atl Ridge in the classic Bermuda position.   Some storms ride the periphery of the ridge to our north but wouldn't rule out some storms in northern sections Fri pm.  Peak heat mid - upper 90, we'll see if perhaps enough sunshine and day heating gets the hot spots in NE-NJ or LGA to 100.  Will be close. 

Ridge contracts and trough and front push south Sun (7/30) with like some storms.  Cool back near normal to open next month before warming into the first week.  Western Atlantic ridge expands west again, Western ridge anchored with trough into the NE backing into the GL, looks to go humid and warm towards the end of the first week of the month.

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif  

     

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Records:


Highs:


EWR: 102 (2022)
NYC: 97 (2010)
LGA: 98 (2022)


Lows:


EWR: 55 (1947)
NYC: 56 (1893)
LGA: 59 (1992)


Historical:

 

1886 - Rain fell at Lawrence, KS, for the first time in four weeks. Rain fell over much of the state of Kansas that day relieving a severe drought which began in May. The very dry weather ruined crops in Kansas. (David Ludlum)

1936 - A record all time Kansas state high temperature set just 6 days earlier was tied in the town of Alton, located in Osborne County. (US National Weather Service Wichita)

1942 - The temperature at Las Vegas, NV, hit 117 degrees to set an all-time record for that location. The record was tied on July 19, 2005.

1947 - One of the most powerful strokes of lightning ever measured yielded 345,000 amperes of electricity in Pittsburgh, PA. (The Weather Channel)

1952 - The temperature at Louisville, GA, soared to 112 degrees to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1952: The temperature at Louisville, Georgia soared to 112 degrees to establish a state record. The temperature also hit 112 degrees in Greenville, Georgia on August 20, 1983.

1980 - Claudette, a weak tropical storm, deluged southeastern Texas with torrential rains. The Houston suburb of Alvin received 43 inches, a 24 hour record for the U.S. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Twenty-one cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 91 degrees at Beckley, WV, was their hottest reading in 25 years of records, and marked their third straight day of record 90 degree heat. Bakersfield, CA, dipped to 60 degrees, marking their eighth straight morning of record cool weather. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in Oklahoma, and over Nebraska and Wisconsin. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Brainerd, NE. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Afternoon thunderstorms produced some flash flooding in New Mexico. Albuquerque, NM, was deluged with an inch and a half of rain in forty minutes. Evening thunderstorms soaked Whie Pine, PA, with two inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

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49 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Obviously we're gonna have pretty good heat for a few days and Friday's heat looks impressive, but it isn't gonna last too long. Looks like a beautiful airmass coming in next Monday. Should be very low humidity and overall most of that week looks pretty comfortable. 

Yep the big hot summer is going poof...yes above normal for July but big long lasting heat has not been there this year...and even this heat is not that impressive east of the city...might be near 90 here a couple of days which is nothing unusual for late July.  Friday looks like the hottest day-Sat/Sun it really drops off esp north and east of the city

1690653600-sGK5i8O9lPo.png

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Records that could be challenged.  Caveat storms, clouds.  850 MB temps forecast 18c - 21c offer near or record potential.  Could be close.

Fri 7/28
EWR:  101
PHL: 100
LGA:  98

Sat 7/29
EWR: 100
LGA: 97
PHL: 98

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