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July 2023


Stormlover74
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12 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Just landed in Charleston so going to miss whatever comes through tomorrow am. Sitting on the tarmac due to lightning.  Landed just as the storm was moving out

You didn't miss much, and now the models are not showing much for the afternoon. Today is gonna be a disappointment overall, but we saw the signs so it's not a surprise.

Of course you are gonna miss the beautiful weekend with lower humidity up here as you deal with the heat/humidity down there, but I hope you have a good time down there. 

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1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

We are managing...beats last year no money

 

But the weekend is dry and some big heat on the way starting Wednesday with fairly dry weather the next 7-10 days

Yeah it's all about the beautiful weekend with lower humidity and then the heat late next week. We've been in a wet pattern since late June, but now a break is finally coming. Maybe just an isolated shower/storm on Tuesday. It'll be interesting to see if we can make it to the upper 90s late next week. 

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26 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

You didn't miss much, and now the models are not showing much for the afternoon. Today is gonna be a disappointment overall, but we saw the signs so it's not a surprise.

Of course you are gonna miss the beautiful weekend with lower humidity up here as you deal with the heat/humidity down there, but I hope you have a good time down there. 

Supposed to be 98 with a dewpoint of around 76. When I was out this morning it wasn't terrible yet

Edit looks like they dropped the high temp to 96

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A fair and dry weekend lies ahead.

An extreme heat event continues to grip the Southwest. Phoenix reached 117° today, its 22nd consecutive day with highs at or above 110°. Tucson also extended its record for 110° days to 13. Salt Lake City could make a run at its all-time high temperature tomorrow and Sunday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around July 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.97°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -14.84 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.240 today.

On July 19 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.245 (RMM). The July 18-adjusted amplitude was 0.509 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.1° (1.6° above normal).

 

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