JustinRP37 Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 6 hours ago, Big Jims Videos said: Spectacular weekend at the beaches. Finally. At the beaches yes, but that water… naw too cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least mid-month and likely beyond it. The generally dry weather will continue with perhaps a few showers or thundershowers through tomorrow. Tomorrow will likely be the warmest day of the week with widespread readings in the 80s. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely Monday into Tuesday. The latest ECMWF weeklies have backed off the development of sustained warmer than normal conditions after the second week of June. The warmth is delayed until late in the month, but that's a low-skill forecasting range. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The SOI was +13.50 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.987 today. On June 8 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.277 (RMM). The June 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.593 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.4° (0.6° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 What we're looking at here is temperatures gradually warming up over time but a pattern closer to winter 1960-61 than any pattern we've ever seen during a summer. Maybe a Donna look-alike will come up the coast. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 72degs.(64/82) or Normal. Reached 78 here yesterday at 4pm. Today: 80-85, wind w. to s., increasing clouds, 67 tomorrow AM. 66*(75%RH) here at 7am. 67* at 8am. 68* at 9am. 70* at 10am. 73* at Noon. 70* at 4pm. Reached 78* at 6pm. 69* at midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 66/57 and a SSW wind with partly cloudy skies and a warmer with highs in the low perhaps mid 80s depending on clouds arrival. ULL #3 is cutting off over the Great Lakes and will slowly progress east over the next 5 days. A low with in the cut off torugh will push through later Mon (6/12) and Tue (6/13) bringing a widespread .50 - 0.75 or more rain to the area. First meaningful widespread rain since May 20th (outside the isolated storms last Tue). Overall near normal the ret of the week with highs upper 70s / near 80 Wed (6/14) and low 80s Thu (6/15). Chances for clods and scattered showers storms Wed. Cut off lifts out by the end of the week. Beyond there the Euro flattens the flow and warms it up gradually by fathers day (6/18) into the following week. We'll see if the weakness and tendency for cut off into the east shifts more north. Strong ridge and heat build into the Rockies and S plains and pieces ejecting east the final 9 - 10 days of June. GFS and ECM control had some su tropical in the way beyond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 Records: Highs: EWR: 96 (2000) NYC: 95 (1973) LGA: 96 (1984) Lows: EWR: 46 (1980) NYC: 46 (1972) LGA: 46 (1972) Historical: 1842 - A late season snowstorm struck New England. Snow fell during the morning and early afternoon, accumulating to a depth of ten to twelve inches at Irasburg VT. Berlin NH was blanketed with eleven inches of snow during the day. Snow whitened the higher peaks of the Appalachians as far south as Maryland. (David Ludlum) 1842: A late-season snowstorm struck New England. Snow fell during the morning and early afternoon, accumulating to a depth of ten to twelve inches at Irasburg, Vermont. Berlin, New Hampshire was blanketed with eleven inches of snow during the day. Snow whitened the higher peaks of the Appalachians as far south as Maryland. The latest date for the occurrence of a general snowstorm in our period over northern New England and northern New York came in 1842 on the morning of 11 June. Zadock Thompson, a professor of natural history and the Queen City's longtime weatherman, commented: "Snow during the forenoon's boards whitened and the mountains as white as in winter." 1877 - The temperature at Los Angeles, CA, reached 112 degrees during a heatwave. It would have been the all-time record for Los Angeles but official records did not begin until twenty days later. (The Weather Channel) 1972 - Heavy showers brought 1.64 inches of rain to Phoenix AZ, a record for the month of June. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - South Texas endured another day of torrential rains. Up to twelve inches of rain drenched Harris County, and nearly ten inches soaked Luce Bayou, mainly during the afternoon hours. Thunderstorm rains left seven feet of water over Highway 189 in northern Val Verde County. Flooding caused nine million dollars damage in Real County. A thunderstorm at Perryton, TX, produced golf ball size hail and 70 mph winds, and spawned a tornado which struck a mobile killing one person and injuring the other four occupants. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thirty cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including El Dorado, AR, with a reading of 48 degrees. Canaan Valley WV and Thomas WV dipped to 30 degrees. Flagstaff AZ was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 30 degrees. Coolidge, just 180 miles away, was the hot spot in the nation with an afternoon high of 105 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the south central and southeastern U.S. during the day and night. Thunderstorms spawned eleven tornadoes, including one which tore the roof off a restaurant at Bee Branch, AR, injuring six persons. The tornado tossed one car into the restaurant, and another car over it. Temperatures soared into the 90s across much of Florida. Lakeland reported a record high of 99 degrees for the second day in a row. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990: One of the most expensive hailstorms in U.S. history occurred as $625 million of damage was caused along the Colorado Front Range from Colorado Springs to Estes Park. Golf to baseball sized hail fell along with heavy rain. 60 people were injured in the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 we could use a tropical system 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 monday comes down to bands of convection which are always annoying to figure out in advance 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, forkyfork said: monday comes down to bands of convection which are always annoying to figure out in advance Yep. Also means there will be winners and losers as far as totals go! Seems the further east you go the lesser the chances at meaningful totals, IMO. Anything less than .50" at my location will be a fail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, MANDA said: Yep. Also means there will be winners and losers as far as totals go! Seems the further east you go the lesser the chances at meaningful totals, IMO. Anything less than .50" at my location will be a fail. RGEM just came in looking great, but HRRR says the significant rain will stay to the northwest. As Forky said this is a tough one to predict. I'm hoping tomorrow won't be a disappointment since we're in desperate need of rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 I went to Jones beach yesterday. Got there a little after low tide, so the water line was low down the beach. Nice breeze, temps in the 70s. I love listening to the waves crash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: monday comes down to bands of convection which are always annoying to figure out in advance Anyway to say when approx. the rain may start? Asking because I am painting the exterior of a house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: Anyway to say when approx. the rain may start? Asking because I am painting the exterior of a house. the main event should hold off til after 5 but we could get showers before then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 Made it to 88 ahead of the clouds. COuld see more breaks between 3 - 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 It hadn't been as sunny as I thought it'd be today. Hazy skies most the time. Is some smoke pushing back in or regular humid summer day haze/clouds? 79/dew 61. Still struggling to 80, forecasted 86 look tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 11, 2023 Author Share Posted June 11, 2023 12 minutes ago, dWave said: It hadn't been as sunny as I thought it'd be today. Hazy skies most the time. Is some smoke pushing back in or regular humid summer day haze/clouds? 79/dew 61. Still struggling to 80, forecasted 86 look tough. I could've sworn it smelled like smoke this morning but probably just my imagination Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 Heights building but no heatwave with an easterly wind. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 39 minutes ago, dWave said: It hadn't been as sunny as I thought it'd be today. Hazy skies most the time. Is some smoke pushing back in or regular humid summer day haze/clouds? 79/dew 61. Still struggling to 80, forecasted 86 look tough. It's mostly mid to high level clouds, but there still is some smoke aloft which is probably promoting more clouds at those levels with the additional condensation nuclei. There is also a small amount of smoke near the surface still 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 4 hours ago, Wannabehippie said: I went to Jones beach yesterday. Got there a little after low tide, so the water line was low down the beach. Nice breeze, temps in the 70s. I love listening to the waves crash in. Nice I’m there right now, my 24th summer life guarding at jones beach. Today wasn’t nearly as nice a beach day as expected. Definitely some smoke in the air here when the sea breeze kicked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 33 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: Heights building but no heatwave with an easterly wind. WX/PT Over the top heat is the norm the last few summers. Bermuda High keeps getting displaced 300+ miles north so we get S or SE onshore wind vs SW. Meanwhile Quebec roasts where the fires are starting up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 83 today in Nw Suffolk. Was in Long Beach earlier and was a cool 71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 I have a feeling this is going to be one of those "where's all the rain" type things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 felt humid today even with dewpoints in the upper 50's been uncomfortable since we have not been accustomed to that this spring.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 Felt like summer today, high temperature here was 82. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 41 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I have a feeling this is going to be one of those "where's all the rain" type things. i'm thinking there will be a band east of the main show with bustorama around it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 3K Nam does that-skunks NYC and dumps on E CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 12z euro very wet next week into the weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 12z euro very wet next week into the weekend makes sense given the cutoff lows. So far June has been a drier version of 2009 - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: makes sense given the cutoff lows. So far June has been a drier version of 2009 - Might be a big mid Atlantic winter coming 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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