May 2023

[tdp146]

Maybe I’m trying too hard, but I actually think you can smell a hint of smoke right now when you initially step outside. 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Superstorm93 said:

Quite possibly the dullest May I can remember in the last 10+ years. 

Haven't even had a lightning strike since April over here.

Very boring but alot of nice days this year....

[Gravity Wave]

1 hour ago, Superstorm93 said:

Quite possibly the dullest May I can remember in the last 10+ years. 

Haven't even had a lightning strike since April over here.

Our peak severe season is half gone and there are no threats on the horizon. I'm not gonna complain about the lack of heat/humidity but it would have been nice to sneak an event in somewhere.

[Eduardo]

I am not gonna complain.  Would love to see some severe wx (which we only seem to get during the winter months now anyway), but I am loving the lack of humidity!

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Our peak severe season is half gone and there are no threats on the horizon. I'm not gonna complain about the lack of heat/humidity but it would have been nice to sneak an event in somewhere.

City on east is tough for severe in April/May-we are the graveyard of severe storms here until later in June...marine layer kills most storms 

[Stormlover74]

2 hours ago, tdp146 said:

Maybe I’m trying too hard, but I actually think you can smell a hint of smoke right now when you initially step outside. 

Definitely noticing it now 

[MANDA]

Still a remarkable lack of rainfall over the next 7 to 10 days on most of the latest guidance.  Lawns in partial to full sun in my area that are not being watered are browning QUICKLY.  Planted flowers and vegetables being watered every second to third day.  Potted plants needing water daily or they wilt.

[CIK62]

I am in a high rise in CI and can smell this smoke continuously.     Visibility is about 6 miles and the Verrazano Bridge is about to white out from my vantage point high up.      

Almost smells like something in the smoke can make you high after a while---no it is not Mar...........!      In the bark of the burning trees perhaps.

Ha! Ha!   The EURO still can not make it to 80............and it has some rain Saturday.      GFS at 95.

[dWave]

2 hours ago, tdp146 said:

Maybe I’m trying too hard, but I actually think you can smell a hint of smoke right now when you initially step outside. 

I heard some mets say it's possible, since this time it can mix down to the surface and affect air quality.

I noticed the haze in the sky around 1pm. Sitting in a Manhattan high rise I can make out it lowering now to near ground level and in between buildings like fog. 

[dWave]

12 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

I am in a high rise in CI and can smell this smoke continuously.     Visibility is about 6 miles and the Verrazano Bridge is about to white out from my vantage point high up.      

Almost smells like something in the smoke can make you high after a while---no it is not Mar...........!      In the bark of the burning trees perhaps.

Ha! Ha!   The EURO still can not make it to 80............and it has some rain Saturday.      GFS at 95.

Took a walk outside and you def can smell it and see it from street level.

[Brian5671]

Smoke here and you can smell it.

[bkviking]

The look in Port Jefferson over the harbor looks like a classic heat wave end of July into August. Slight smoky smell but my nose ain’t the greatest, so probably  worse. 

[Cfa]

Ground level smoke. Slight burning birthday candle smell.

[forkyfork]

even more tomorrow

[dWave]

I go uptown to the Bx and the sky is blue and no perseivable smoke..but how if it's coming from the NE, or is it sweeping around from the south? Or is it because it more breezy here?

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, dWave said:

I go uptown to the Bx and the sky is blue and no perseivable smoke..but how if it's coming from the NE, or is it sweeping around from the south? Or is it because it more breezy here?

Seems to be coming in waves?

[gravitylover]

This is the thickest smoke we've ever had here that I can remember. My memory of stale, hot, humid summer days before  catalytic converters is similar. Yuck... 

[BxEngine]

27 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

This is the thickest smoke we've ever had here that I can remember. My memory of stale, hot, humid summer days before  catalytic converters is similar. Yuck... 

we had one in the summer in the early 2000s from fires in canada too. Just now it was strong enough that it smelled like the neighbors house was on fire.

[forkyfork]

15 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

we had one in the summer in the early 2000s from fires in canada too.

2002 duh

[Nibor]

In the city it smells like someone lit a match in the bathroom to cover the smell of shit and urine. 

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures will begin to rebound tomorrow. June will start with above normal temperatures, but a trough will likely develop leading to a return of cooler conditions shortly afterward.

The latest ECMWF weeklies suggest that sustained warmer than normal conditions could develop during or after the second week of June.

Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. The latest data suggests that May 2023 is now extremely likely to wind up somewhat cooler than normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around May 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -15.45 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.057 today.

On May 28 the MJO was not available. The May 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.796 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied nera 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.8° (0.4° below normal).

 

[SACRUS]

 

5/30

PHL: 76
NYC: 72
TEB: 72
TTN: 71
EWR: 70
New Brnswck: 70
LGA: 69
ISP: 68
ACY: 68
BLM: 66
JFK: 66
 

[forkyfork]

the smell is pretty strong now 

[dWave]

3 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Seems to be coming in waves?

Its here now..burns my eyes actually

[JerseyWx]

2 hours ago, BxEngine said:

we had one in the summer in the early 2000s from fires in canada too. Just now it was strong enough that it smelled like the neighbors house was on fire.

I can't remember if it was 2020 or 2021 but it was during the middle of one of our hot and humid periods of summer that we had some pretty thick smoke here too.  It was already HHH kind of weather, then the smoke made it worse.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

9 hours ago, forkyfork said:

2002 duh

Yeah that was very impressive. It also was during the summer heat so it just tagged on to our normal ozone issues. At least this ones coming from what is normally one of our best airmass generation areas so it’s all just natural wood smoke. 

[CIK62]

The last day of May is averaging   69degs.(56/82) or Normal.

Month to date is    62.6[-0.5].      May should end at    62.8[-0.4].

Reached  72 here yesterday.

Today:   71-76, wind e. to s., p. sunny, 60 tomorrow AM.

56*(78%RH) here at 7am{ was 55 at 6am}.     57* at 8am.      59* at 9pm.      61* at Noon.       70* at 4pm.     Reached 73* at 7pm.

[SACRUS]

 

A bit warmer today mid / upper 70s before back into the 80s to open the month Thu (6/1) and some stray 90 degree readings Fri (6/2) before a sharp change as strong NE flow pushes backdoor front through on Sat (6/3).  Sat may stay in the low 60s or lower with clouds and drizzle (ugly day).  Sun (6/4) perhaps a bit to clear out and remaining cool.

 

Trough builds down next week ECM a bit flatter, GFS cuts off low and spins waves around it with rain chances next Tue - Wed (6/7).  

Beyond there heights are rising by the 9th and warmer push into the area.  ECM much more robust on potential above normal, GFS closer to normal till md month.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 98 (2022) - hot one a year ago
NYC: 96 (1939)
LGA: 96 (1987) '87 a very warm May overall


Lows:

EWR: 44 (1938)
NYC: 46 (1938)
LGA: 50 (2021)

Historical:

 

1830: Shelbyville, Tennessee was turned into "a heap of ruins" as a tornado moved east through the center of the town. This tornado destroyed 15 homes and 38 businesses along with churches and other public buildings. Losses were estimated to be as high as $100,000. A book was said to be carried seven miles away.

1889 - The Johnstown disaster occurred, the worst flood tragedy in U.S. history. Heavy rains collapsed the South Fork Dam sending a thirty foot wall of water rushing down the already flooded Conemaugh Valley. The wall of water, traveling as fast as twenty-two feet per second, swept away all structures, objects and people. 2100 persons perished in the flood. (David Ludlum)

1941 - Thunderstorms deluged Burlington KS with 12.59 inches of rain to establish a 24 hour rainfall record for the state. (The Weather Channel)

1985 - Severe thuunderstorms spawned forty-one tornadoes across the Lower Great Lakes Region and southeastern Ontario which killed 74 persons. (Storm Data)

1987 - Thunderstorms in New England produced wind gusts up to 90 mph at Worcester, MA, and Northboro, MA, and hail an inch and a half in diameter at Williston, VT. Unseasonably hot weather prevailed in the northeastern U.S. The afternoon high of 94 degrees at Portland, ME, was a record for the month of May. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Hot and humid weather prevailed in the eastern U.S. Thirteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Cape Hatteras, NC, reported their first ninety degree day in May in 115 years of records. "Dust buster" thunderstorms in northwest Texas drenched Amarillo with more than three inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather and torrential rains in northern Indiana, northern Ohio and southern Lower Michigan. Saint John IND was drenched with four inches of rain in two hours, and Woodland MI was deluged with two inches in twenty minutes. Pittsburgh PA reported a record 6.55 inches of rain for the month of May, with measurable rain reported on twenty-five days during the month. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing along a warm front produced severe weather from northwest Texas to southeastern Louisiana. The thunderstorms spawned sixteen tornadoes, including thirteen in northwest Texas. One tornado hit the town of Spearman, TX, causing more than a million dollars damage, and seven other tornadoes were reported within twenty-five miles of Spearman. Thunderstorms over northwest Texas also produced baseball size hail at Monahans, and wind gusts to 80 mph at Paducah. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2013: The 2nd of the top 10 weather events for 2013 was EL Reno, Oklahoma tornado of May 31, 2013. Part of the multi-day storm outbreak caused $2 billion in damage. The EF3 that traveled through the western suburbs of Oklahoma City was the largest tornado ever observed with a width of 2.6 miles. It took eight lives including four tornado chasers.

[nycwinter]

the smoke thing was minor not as bad as i expected for the city..