April 2023

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

48 here

35 out this way

[CIK62]

The last 6 days of April are averaging     55degs.(49/62) or -3.

Month to date is    58.9[+6.3].       April should end at     58.1[+4.4],  1st. Place.

Reached 61 here yesterday at 4pm.

Today:   60-63, wind nw. to sw., p.sunny-clouds late, 49 tomorrow AM.

48*(58%RH) here at 7am.      50* at 8am.       57* at Noon.      59* at 2pm.      Reached 61* at 3pm.       55* at 8pm.     52* at 10pm.

 

[Tekken_Guy]

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

The last 6 days of April are averaging     55degs.(49/62) or -3.

Month to date is    58.9[+6.3].       April should end at     58.1[+4.4],  1st. Place.

Reached 61 here yesterday at 4pm.

Today:   60-63, wind nw. to sw., p.sunny-clouds late, 49 tomorrow AM.

48*(58%RH) here at 7am.      50* at 8am.

 

Is it possible we fall slightly below the record of 2010?

[Stormlover74]

14 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Starts Sunday afternoon so maybe we salvage Saturday 

Now it looks like Friday into Saturday and round 2 Sunday night into Monday 

[bluewave]

On 4/23/2023 at 9:53 PM, lee59 said:

Brookhaven National Labs (on Long Island) still has an average January temperature below 30 degrees. I think one reason why is the recording station is not at an airport or urban area but rather in the middle of a large open field. I am sure they get very good radiational cooling. 

January 22, 1961 Brookhaven hit a record low of -23 degrees. The same night Newark hit 5 above, Laguardia 9 above and Kennedy 13 above. Now that is some difference.

Here is their website for anyone interested.   

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/

The Pine Barrens is a great location for radiational cooling. But the temperature patterns are the same there across the winter months as around NYC. Faster warming in December and February than January. 

BNL

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/extremes.php

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/monthlymeantemps.htm

Average temperatures

December 1951-1980….32.8…..1991-2020…..36.2….+3.4

January……1951-1980….28.2….1991-2020……30.3…..+2.1

February…..1951-1980….29.2….1991-2020……32.5…..+3.3

Minimum temperatures 

January 1951-1980…19.1…1991-2020…22.4..+3.3

[Dark Star]

19 hours ago, nycwinter said:

i like rainy washout weekends.. i like seeing people being unhappy..

I'm not happy

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Now it looks like Friday into Saturday and round 2 Sunday night into Monday 

Yeah saturday's rain is looking more impressive now. 12z CMC gives us a nice 1 to 2 inch soaking saturday, similar to last night's Euro. 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah saturday's rain is looking more impressive now. 12z CMC gives us a nice 1 to 2 inch soaking saturday, similar to last night's Euro. 

And another 1 to 2 on Monday 

[hudsonvalley21]

55 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

And another 1 to 2 on Monday 

 

[MJO812]

Beautiful weather

 

Chilly and rainy 

[Brian5671]

I don't mind the rain but stinks 2 weekends in a row

[rclab]

56 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

i like rain it’s my favorite

Good afternoon Will. You and Anthony should audition, if theirs a remake/revival. Stay well, as always. …,

[ILoveWinter]

Another weekend ruined, boo. This should put a temporary stop to the frequent "we desperately need the rain" comments, lol

[Stormlover74]

22 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Another weekend ruined, boo. This should put a temporary stop to the frequent "we desperately need the rain" comments, lol

Euro cut back so we'll see

[Rtd208]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro cut back so we'll see

Probably a fluke run. It will most likely bring back the heavier rain amounts as the pattern late week into early next week is conducive for a prolonged period of very wet weather. We'll see.

[Rtd208]

DT (WxRisk) was hitting the wet weather pretty hard when he posted this yesterday. 

[Allsnow]

16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro cut back so we'll see

Drying up…brutal 

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Drying up…brutal 

King Euro ?

I rather have the GFS by my side after another terrible performance from the Euro during the winter .

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

King Euro ?

I rather have the GFS by my side after another terrible performance from the Euro during the winter .

Well the gfs just went dry for Sunday Monday as well

[forkyfork]

again and again

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

again and again

Yup. Same pattern since the winter. Models increasing the strength of the -pna 

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. Same pattern since the winter. Models increasing the strength of the -pna 

You get different outcomes by late April/May.

Closed low with blocking to the NE will cause a lot of rain. Fully anticipate models to ramp up totals 

Big signal from EPS

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

again and again

Tough to verify day 10 snowstorms during the winter when that warm pool ridge east of New England keeps popping up the closer in we get. Someone at one of the weather model centers should come here and discuss this frequent model error. The GFS has had even more of a cold bias than the Euro at day 10. So the long range  GFS has even more virtual snow than the Euro. 
 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 88 (2009)
NYC: 91 (1915)
LGA: 88 (2009)

LOWs:

EWR: 37 (1971)
NYC: 29 (1919)
LGA: 36 (1971)

Historical:

 

1875 - New York City received three inches of snow, the latest measurable snow of record for that location. (David Ludlum)

1898 - The temperature at Volcano Springs CA hit 118 degrees to establish a U.S. record for the month of April. (The Weather Channel)

1910 - Chicago, IL, was blanketed with 2.5 inches of snow, and a total of 6.5 inches between the 22nd and the 26th. It was the latest significant snow of record for the city. (The Weather Channel)

1912: An estimated F4 tornado struck Ponca City, Oklahoma. One person was killed, and 119 homes were damaged or destroyed. Dozens of oil derricks were flattened or twisted, southwest of town. The tornado was reportedly visible and audible for 20 miles.

1920 - Atlanta, GA, received 1.5 inches of snow, and experienced their latest freeze of record with a morning low of 32 degrees. The high of just 39 degrees was only their second daily high colder than 40 degrees in April. (The Weather Channel)

1984 - A late season snowstorm struck the Northern Rockies and the Northern Plains. The storm produced some unsually high snowfall totals. The town of Lead, located in the Black Hills of western South Dakota, was buried under 67 inches of snow. Red Lodge, located in the mountains of southern Montana, reported 72 inches of snow. Up to 60 inches blanketed the mountains of northern Wyoming. It was rated the worst late season storm of record for much of the affected area. (25th-28th) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Low pressure off the coast of North Carolina produced heavy rain flooding creeks in the foothills and the piedmont area, before moving out to sea. The low pressure system also produced wind gusts to 50 mph in Virginia. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms racing at 65 mph produced large hail in Alabama and Georgia. Hail damage in Alabama was estimated at fifty million dollars, making it their worst weather disaster since Hurricane Frederick in 1979. Hail three inches in diameter accompanied a tornado near Valdosta GA. Hail four and a half inches in diameter was reported south of Atlanta GA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing along a stationary front produced severe weather from North Carolina to Indiana and Ohio, with more than 70 reports of large hail and damaging winds. A strong (F-2) tornado hit Xenia OH injuring 16 persons and causing more than a million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Texas to Nebraska. Thunderstorms spawned fifteen tornadoes, including a powerful (F-4) tornado near Weatherford TX. Between 3 PM and 8 PM, a storm complex tracking northeastward across central Kansas spawned four tornadoes along a 119-mile path from Ness to Smith Center, with the last tornado on the ground for 55 miles. Del Rio TX was raked with hail two inches in diameter, and wind gusts to 112 mph. Brown County and Commanche County in Texas were deluged with up to 18 inches of rain, and flooding caused more than 65 million dollars damage. Two dozen cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 87 degrees at Flint MI and 90 degrees at Alpena MI were records for April. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1990: Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Texas to Nebraska. Thunderstorms spawned fifteen tornadoes, including a powerful F4 tornado near Weatherford, Texas. Between 3 PM and 8 PM, a storm complex tracking northeastward across central Kansas spawned four tornadoes along a 119-mile path from Ness to Smith Center, with the last tornado on the ground for 55 miles. Del Rio TX was hit with hail two inches in diameter and wind gusts to 112 mph. Brown County and Commanche County in Texas were deluged with up to 18 inches of rain, and flooding caused more than 65 million dollars damage.

2008 - Anchorage, AK, receives a record 17.2 inches at the airport and 22 inches in northeast Anchorage from the 25th to 26th. The 15.5 inches on the 25th makes it the third most received on any one day in Anchorage.

[donsutherland1]

An extended cool period will likely continue through the opening week of May. This sustained period of cooler than normal weather is shown on both the CFSv2 and ECMWF weeklies. There remains considerable uncertainty beyond the first week of May.

The region could experience some rain Friday night into Saturday. Afterward, a moderate to perhaps significant rainfall is possible Sunday into Monday.

April 2023 remains on a trajectory that will rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. The potential exists for some locations to challenge their warmest April on record. A cool end to the month won't be sufficient to avoid top 10 warmth.

The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was:

Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest)
Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest)
Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest)
New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest)
New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest)
Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest)
Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest)
White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around April 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -9.52 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.871 today.

On April 23 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.074 (RMM). The April 22-adjusted amplitude was 2.023 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.0° (4.3° above normal). That would rank April 2023 as the warmest April on record.

 

[CIK62]

The next 6 Weeks+.      AN comes at mid-May.

 

[donsutherland1]

From Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology: A forecast for a super El Niño.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I anticipate at this point that any return to above normal temperatures for the NYC Metro region would probably occur late during the 3rd week or 4th week of May. We might get into near normal temperatures a few days to a week before then.

WX/PT

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 88 (2009)
NYC: 91 (1915)
LGA: 88 (2009)

LOWs:

EWR: 37 (1971)
NYC: 29 (1919)
LGA: 36 (1971)

Historical:

 

1875 - New York City received three inches of snow, the latest measurable snow of record for that location. (David Ludlum)

1898 - The temperature at Volcano Springs CA hit 118 degrees to establish a U.S. record for the month of April. (The Weather Channel)

1910 - Chicago, IL, was blanketed with 2.5 inches of snow, and a total of 6.5 inches between the 22nd and the 26th. It was the latest significant snow of record for the city. (The Weather Channel)

1912: An estimated F4 tornado struck Ponca City, Oklahoma. One person was killed, and 119 homes were damaged or destroyed. Dozens of oil derricks were flattened or twisted, southwest of town. The tornado was reportedly visible and audible for 20 miles.

1920 - Atlanta, GA, received 1.5 inches of snow, and experienced their latest freeze of record with a morning low of 32 degrees. The high of just 39 degrees was only their second daily high colder than 40 degrees in April. (The Weather Channel)

1984 - A late season snowstorm struck the Northern Rockies and the Northern Plains. The storm produced some unsually high snowfall totals. The town of Lead, located in the Black Hills of western South Dakota, was buried under 67 inches of snow. Red Lodge, located in the mountains of southern Montana, reported 72 inches of snow. Up to 60 inches blanketed the mountains of northern Wyoming. It was rated the worst late season storm of record for much of the affected area. (25th-28th) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Low pressure off the coast of North Carolina produced heavy rain flooding creeks in the foothills and the piedmont area, before moving out to sea. The low pressure system also produced wind gusts to 50 mph in Virginia. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms racing at 65 mph produced large hail in Alabama and Georgia. Hail damage in Alabama was estimated at fifty million dollars, making it their worst weather disaster since Hurricane Frederick in 1979. Hail three inches in diameter accompanied a tornado near Valdosta GA. Hail four and a half inches in diameter was reported south of Atlanta GA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing along a stationary front produced severe weather from North Carolina to Indiana and Ohio, with more than 70 reports of large hail and damaging winds. A strong (F-2) tornado hit Xenia OH injuring 16 persons and causing more than a million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Texas to Nebraska. Thunderstorms spawned fifteen tornadoes, including a powerful (F-4) tornado near Weatherford TX. Between 3 PM and 8 PM, a storm complex tracking northeastward across central Kansas spawned four tornadoes along a 119-mile path from Ness to Smith Center, with the last tornado on the ground for 55 miles. Del Rio TX was raked with hail two inches in diameter, and wind gusts to 112 mph. Brown County and Commanche County in Texas were deluged with up to 18 inches of rain, and flooding caused more than 65 million dollars damage. Two dozen cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 87 degrees at Flint MI and 90 degrees at Alpena MI were records for April. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1990: Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Texas to Nebraska. Thunderstorms spawned fifteen tornadoes, including a powerful F4 tornado near Weatherford, Texas. Between 3 PM and 8 PM, a storm complex tracking northeastward across central Kansas spawned four tornadoes along a 119-mile path from Ness to Smith Center, with the last tornado on the ground for 55 miles. Del Rio TX was hit with hail two inches in diameter and wind gusts to 112 mph. Brown County and Commanche County in Texas were deluged with up to 18 inches of rain, and flooding caused more than 65 million dollars damage.

2008 - Anchorage, AK, receives a record 17.2 inches at the airport and 22 inches in northeast Anchorage from the 25th to 26th. The 15.5 inches on the 25th makes it the third most received on any one day in Anchorage.

 The Atlanta 1.5" April 25th snow and cold was truly amazing. However, the Atlanta based TWC actually got the year wrong. It was 1910 (same year as the noted Chicago snow), not 1920:

https://site.extension.uga.edu/climate/2017/04/april-25-1910-snowfall-in-northern-georgia/#:~:text=From This Day in Weather,of the 30s in April.

 I've read the old Atlanta newspapers from then (on microfiche at public library) and they predicted for 4/25/1910 rain and warmer than the much colder than normal 4/24. Instead, 4/25 was even colder along with the snow. This snow still is much later in spring than any other measurable snow there on record. Chattanooga was in the same boat except they got 4"! Nashville got 1.5".

[lee59]

39 was my low this morning and it looked like some of the rooftops may have had a little frost. Nothing but dew otherwise. Would not be surprised if there was frost in some of  the rural inland areas of both Nassau and Suffolk. I see mid 30s in the Muttontown area of northern Nassau.