Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

The snow maps oversell a lot of zones in these marginal spring storms. But they give a rudimentary idea of what the model run is.  Take 5-6:1 ratios below 1000ft and it looks like a much different map… but we all know how to mentally ratchet down the map in lower elevation areas.

 

Agreed but fine above 1500 feet

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

A few of us up here keep internally discussing the number of SE flow synoptic snow events we’ve had this season… the seasonal totals are packing totals into the eastern ADKs, E.Greens and E.Whites.  

Yes and eastern adks have really scored on every one of them where the cats have rained (they finally having a great one tonight)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

seems this is coming together a bit earlier than expected.  Don't know what the projected timing was in SNE but we weren't supposed to change over for a few more hours.  Lots of mystery still but damn what a great radar sig.

Comparing what’s happening on radar to when it should be happening it seems about 4-6 hours ahead of schedule. Hope it keeps up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Perfect track.  You’d think you could lock it within a day of go time but…..

The 18z was evidence that we can't lock it.  But the Hrrr was showing a similar setup at 0z, further E and N from its 18z run, so we have 2 models moving in the right direction to start 0z.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, UnitedWx said:

IDK for some areas. Snowing here and accumulating, and I'm only 350 feet at best. Maybe just far enough west? I would only expect it to get better from here. I honestly didn't expect a changeover til close to sunrise 

I just checked and saw CEF was 33 with rain/snow mix and I went outside and I think snow is mixing here! Maybe I can hold off on sticking my head into the toilet for now. 

  • Haha 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Driving to work from Bernardston to Whately down 91, I was surprised to see that it remained 33F and snow the whole way. Even in Whately, it was sticking to grass areas and coming down pretty good. Will this over-perform in the upper valley? Hope so.

... we need an obs thread?

Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1015 PM Update...

 

* High Impact/Major Winter Storm with 1-2 feet of heavy wet snow

  & power outages into Tue for northern ORH Hills/Berks

 

* Rain overnight in most lower elevations which will eventually

  transition to some snow Tue but amounts/impacts uncertain

 

We have high confidence that a serious/major winter storm will

impact the northern Worcester Hills/Berks above 1000 feet in

elevation overnight into Tue. Firehose of rich moisture combined

with tremendous forcing/dynamics and thermal profiles are all

supportive of 1 to 2 feet of heavy wet snow & power outages

through Tuesday. This will be a very serious storm for these

locations.

 

Forecast confidence is significantly less to the south of the MA

Turnpike and all lower elevations. While some wet snow has been

mixed in with rain at times across the lower elevations of the

interior...ESE low level flow around 925 mb should result in

some warming in that layer overnight. So expect mainly rain in

this region through daybreak. This 925 mb warm layer begins to

erode Tue am and especially by afternoon. How quickly this

occurs and where exactly the dryslot and intense frontogenesis

sets up will be crucial if significant accumulations occur in

the lower elevations. This is quite complex too considering very

marginal boundary layer temps. Given the rapidly intensifying

low pressure system getting pulled back towards the coast along

with an intensifying closed 700 mb low will need to be watched.

If there was an area we were most concerned about in the lower

elevations for significant wet snow accumulations...its portions

of northeast MA especially just inland from the coast. We are

still evaluating the latest model data.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Professional Lurker said:

Driving to work from Bernardston to Whately down 91, I was surprised to see that it remained 33F and snow the whole way. Even in Whately, it was sticking to grass areas and coming down pretty good. Will this over-perform in the upper valley? Hope so.

... we need an obs thread?

Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk
 

There is an obs thread…pay attention. 

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, 8611Blizz said:

If Boston doesn't crack double digits then these models are almost worthless. I mean we are 12-14 hours away from go time here.

It's also showing 10:1 ratios when it won't be. It's stacking snow like it's below freezing when it's not. So those amounts aren't going to be close. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It's also showing 10:1 ratios when it won't be. It's stacking snow like it's below freezing when it's not. So those amounts aren't going to be close. 

It is sub freezing for a lot of the meat.  Kuchera was pretty robust in Boston metro.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...