qg_omega Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: The snow maps oversell a lot of zones in these marginal spring storms. But they give a rudimentary idea of what the model run is. Take 5-6:1 ratios below 1000ft and it looks like a much different map… but we all know how to mentally ratchet down the map in lower elevation areas. Agreed but fine above 1500 feet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Agreed but fine above 1500 feet A few of us up here keep internally discussing the number of SE flow synoptic snow events we’ve had this season… the seasonal totals are packing totals into the eastern ADKs, E.Greens and E.Whites. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 A bit of a nod to the Euro, but NAM is impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 That's some really poor agreement on a 24hr forecast. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: A few of us up here keep internally discussing the number of SE flow synoptic snow events we’ve had this season… the seasonal totals are packing totals into the eastern ADKs, E.Greens and E.Whites. Yes and eastern adks have really scored on every one of them where the cats have rained (they finally having a great one tonight) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Nipple is real? Still there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: NAM is just crushing Boston metro. Yeah, it's E and when it make the left turn and loops it stays offshore keeping us in the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: Yeah, it's E and when it make the left turn and loops it stays offshore keeping us in the goods. Perfect track. You’d think you could lock it within a day of go time but….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 That’s not bad for the WOR crew. Ugly for the rest of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 NAM is also sub freezing in BOS at the height. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 seems this is coming together a bit earlier than expected. Don't know what the projected timing was in SNE but we weren't supposed to change over for a few more hours. Lots of mystery still but damn what a great radar sig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 3k slays too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: seems this is coming together a bit earlier than expected. Don't know what the projected timing was in SNE but we weren't supposed to change over for a few more hours. Lots of mystery still but damn what a great radar sig. Comparing what’s happening on radar to when it should be happening it seems about 4-6 hours ahead of schedule. Hope it keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: That’s not bad for the WOR crew. Ugly for the rest of CT. Better than the 18z run at least... drops a lot more across the state than I'm expecting at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Christ the winds near the center of the low on 3K NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Perfect track. You’d think you could lock it within a day of go time but….. The 18z was evidence that we can't lock it. But the Hrrr was showing a similar setup at 0z, further E and N from its 18z run, so we have 2 models moving in the right direction to start 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Hurricane season starts early and ends late on the 3k NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 47 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: they valley is nada IDK for some areas. Snowing here and accumulating, and I'm only 350 feet at best. Maybe just far enough west? I would only expect it to get better from here. I honestly didn't expect a changeover til close to sunrise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Christ the winds near the center of the low on 3K NAM. Landfalling blizzard? Good luck out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Just now, UnitedWx said: IDK for some areas. Snowing here and accumulating, and I'm only 350 feet at best. Maybe just far enough west? I would only expect it to get better from here. I honestly didn't expect a changeover til close to sunrise I just checked and saw CEF was 33 with rain/snow mix and I went outside and I think snow is mixing here! Maybe I can hold off on sticking my head into the toilet for now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Landfalling blizzard? Good luck out there. Yeah wish I could buy it. I don't have a lot of trust right now, other than maybe a somewhat fun finish. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 NAM doesn’t shut the snow off in eastern areas until Wednesday morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Driving to work from Bernardston to Whately down 91, I was surprised to see that it remained 33F and snow the whole way. Even in Whately, it was sticking to grass areas and coming down pretty good. Will this over-perform in the upper valley? Hope so. ... we need an obs thread?Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 If Boston doesn't crack double digits then these models are almost worthless. I mean we are 12-14 hours away from go time here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 A lot of areas are a couple degrees colder than the models had us at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Well I'll be damned. There's one and it's like 12hrs old. Whoops!Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 1015 PM Update... * High Impact/Major Winter Storm with 1-2 feet of heavy wet snow & power outages into Tue for northern ORH Hills/Berks * Rain overnight in most lower elevations which will eventually transition to some snow Tue but amounts/impacts uncertain We have high confidence that a serious/major winter storm will impact the northern Worcester Hills/Berks above 1000 feet in elevation overnight into Tue. Firehose of rich moisture combined with tremendous forcing/dynamics and thermal profiles are all supportive of 1 to 2 feet of heavy wet snow & power outages through Tuesday. This will be a very serious storm for these locations. Forecast confidence is significantly less to the south of the MA Turnpike and all lower elevations. While some wet snow has been mixed in with rain at times across the lower elevations of the interior...ESE low level flow around 925 mb should result in some warming in that layer overnight. So expect mainly rain in this region through daybreak. This 925 mb warm layer begins to erode Tue am and especially by afternoon. How quickly this occurs and where exactly the dryslot and intense frontogenesis sets up will be crucial if significant accumulations occur in the lower elevations. This is quite complex too considering very marginal boundary layer temps. Given the rapidly intensifying low pressure system getting pulled back towards the coast along with an intensifying closed 700 mb low will need to be watched. If there was an area we were most concerned about in the lower elevations for significant wet snow accumulations...its portions of northeast MA especially just inland from the coast. We are still evaluating the latest model data. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 1 minute ago, Professional Lurker said: Driving to work from Bernardston to Whately down 91, I was surprised to see that it remained 33F and snow the whole way. Even in Whately, it was sticking to grass areas and coming down pretty good. Will this over-perform in the upper valley? Hope so. ... we need an obs thread? Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk There is an obs thread…pay attention. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Just now, 8611Blizz said: If Boston doesn't crack double digits then these models are almost worthless. I mean we are 12-14 hours away from go time here. It's also showing 10:1 ratios when it won't be. It's stacking snow like it's below freezing when it's not. So those amounts aren't going to be close. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It's also showing 10:1 ratios when it won't be. It's stacking snow like it's below freezing when it's not. So those amounts aren't going to be close. It is sub freezing for a lot of the meat. Kuchera was pretty robust in Boston metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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