Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[CoastalWx]

I’ll take the opposite. Gfs blows. I can handle the Canadian. 

[powderfreak]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I’ll take the opposite. Gfs blows. I can handle the Canadian. 

I need Phin back .  Just let him carry the NNE weight.

[powderfreak]

Weird the GGEM has this decent low move through just prior on 3/2... and you can definitely see it shoves everything much further south behind it for the 4th.

It is significantly colder behind whatever this lead storm is than the GFS which does not seem to have this.  The backside of that system sets the table for the next one on the 4th.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Weird the GGEM has this decent low move through just prior on 3/2... and you can definitely see it shoves everything much further south behind it for the 4th.

It is significantly colder behind whatever this lead storm is than the GFS which does not seem to have this.  The backside of that system sets the table for the next one on the 4th.

Yea. Gfs has it actually but it’s weaker and north while the cmc is potent and further south.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I need Phin back .  Just let him carry the NNE weight.

Ha. I was more pointing out different solutions thanks to our locations. I’m sure it will probably bone here no matter what.

[powderfreak]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. Gfs has it actually but it’s weaker and disjointed while the cmc is potent.

Yeah I just saw that, missed it on the GFS but it’s the weak wave that even goes north of here. Seems to play a role in the system right behind it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

GEFs has also trended several mb weaker overall ... 

This isn't gonna be an easy ride.   We still have the caveat wrt to the -PNA footprint/fast progressive nature to the flow to contend with.

We are all aware that 'past performance doesn't dictate future performance' with these models, but I've never fully agreed with that sentiment.  Partially? sure - but only in so far as every situation/scenario has to be considered for its own identity.  The problem is... that identity is in the same family and families tend to share behavioral-related genetics.  Heh...  In this case, the modest transient exertion by the -NAO ...doomed the GFS' fancy wrt to the 28th.  It seems reasonable to assume the same exertion will be in place as this thing is approaching - the key difference being, this one is wholesale more powerful upon ejection out of the SW...  So how that resolves as it moves closer toward the terminus of the NAO exertion ( roughly where we are in space)... that's a "cloudy" picture. 

I am noticing the gap between the 3rd/4th principle S/W, and a new injection coming in from the W, is shrinking across the last several cycles. It seems this cycle has crossed a threshold where there is now some destructive interference being introduced into the whole circuitry of affairs, from that introduced source, that was not a part of previous run cycles.  So yayyy ...another card player shows up for the deal. This higher error prone progressive pattern could morph all this ...if that gap narrows further and then it becomes dominant and we end up with something no one saw coming. 

Anyway, this 12z GFS deterministic run is selling less NAO exertion overall, and for that ... tries to make a run at a cutter.. .but ultimately fails - not before it is too late... and this ends up less than appealing to winter enthusiasm.  right.

 

I feel as though we are still going to see this shear out unless it phases), just less so than this next one. 

[mahk_webstah]

19 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Weird the GGEM has this decent low move through just prior on 3/2... and you can definitely see it shoves everything much further south behind it for the 4th.

It is significantly colder behind whatever this lead storm is than the GFS which does not seem to have this.  The backside of that system sets the table for the next one on the 4th.

That would be a huge win for the whole forum and the one to the south.  We cash in March 2 along with SNE and then the Mid Atl cashes in on the next.  Maybe s and sw SNE get some of each?  Feed the needy.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel as though we are still going to see this shear out unless it phases), just less so than this next one. 

That may be so... no qualms employing that anticipation.  In fact, it's highly likely.  How much or how little?  

But I don't see a phasing source?  

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That may be so... no qualms employing that anticipation.  In fact, it's highly likely.  How much or how little?  

But I don't see a phasing source?  

 

The lobe of the PV....it was phasing in somewhat near NY and PA on last night's GFS...and in the maritimes on the EURO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That PV lobe N of ME is going to be a big problem for someone if EURO is more right....gonna be a sharp cut off with this one like Jan 2016 and Jan 96 (not saying its of that caliber, just prominent examples that people will remember). The N edge of the heavy snow band will be nuclear assuming this doesn't get shredded.

The GFS starts phasing the lobe in over PA and NYS, but the EURO has it out ahead more to the NE so that it shunts the system and doesn't phase until the maritimes. Gonna be an interesting model war....a compromise between the two could be very nice if that PV decided to give that southern wave road head near the cape.

 

[dryslot]

Split the difference.

[CoastalWx]

Euro with a nod to the gfs later this week. Lol. 

[Thunderblizzard]

Euro looks a lot more amped than the 0z run... much closer to the GFS but not quite as amped as it.

[CoastalWx]

Well not as warm, but big jump north.

[ineedsnow]

looks like its about to crush

[ineedsnow]

ill lock the Euro

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro with a nod to the gfs later this week. Lol. 

Meh

 

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Meh

 

Enjoy your plowable Tuesday. 

[DJln491]

Slide it east 

edit: never mind there still more panes lol

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Enjoy your plowable Tuesday. 

I'm not getting that much 

More bigger threat saturday 

[ineedsnow]

12 to 16 on the Euro here we take

[Thunderblizzard]

Looks pretty similar to the UKMET actually.

[powderfreak]

Decent move from 00z to 12z.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I'm not getting that much 

More bigger threat saturday 

In a nod to the gfs, it looks faster now with a Friday start

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Is this one “deamplifying” on approach , is there a grinder it has to go thru at all 

[powderfreak]

700mb low goes BGM to BOS.  Interesting track.

[George001]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Decent move from 00z to 12z.

EPS will be interesting, looks like the mid Atlantic special is becoming less and less likely. No snow for Philly and DC, and there is enough time for even more north shifts. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

700mb low goes BGM to BOS.  Interesting track.

You buy it 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

EPS will be interesting, looks like the mid Atlantic special is becoming less and less likely. No snow for Philly and DC, and there is enough time for even more north shifts. 

We wanted this to stay south of the mid Atlantic the next few days. Congratulations NNE on your storm