HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I’m planning on 3 to 4 inches here followed by drizzle. Pack will be solid once the cold air drains in and of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: can you post the link for that, thanks. https://www.weather.gov/gyx/winter go to probabilistic snowfall amounts and click Point instead of Range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 12 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: can you post the link for that, thanks. https://www.weather.gov/gyx/winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I like how the GFS tries to get cute with placing possible qpf amounts based off of elevation in there algorithm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Pretty high probability of snow on the low end amount based off of 90%+ chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: Trees and limbs down all over.. if this doesn't melt today it's going to be bad You’ve been willing that bad stuff the last couple days…you want snow on snow, that’s what you get. Don’t pretend you don’t love it. We see through the facade. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 GFS still pretty weak with the thump down here. I’m leaning toward that solution and not really buying the large NAM amounts. There’s just not a lot of vort energy that curls up into us until later when we’re already too warm for snow…and even when that happens, it’s strung out vort energy. Of we get a slight bump east or a slight increase in confluence, that could change but for now I’m leaning in the 1-3” range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I like 5-8” up here, 8-12” for the mountain. The upslope signal on backside with some cold moving in looks pretty good. Snowy day today, another 2” on the mountain and visibilities down to 1 mile in the valley at times with upslope. In the snow flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS still pretty weak with the thump down here. I’m leaning toward that solution and not really buying the large NAM amounts. There’s just not a lot of vort energy that curls up into us until later when we’re already too warm for snow…and even when that happens, it’s strung out vort energy. Of we get a slight bump east or a slight increase in confluence, that could change but for now I’m leaning in the 1-3” range. Both would help many, I've been looking for some of those small changes, So far not the case but the messenger rule may come into play the next 24-30 hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS still pretty weak with the thump down here. I’m leaning toward that solution and not really buying the large NAM amounts. There’s just not a lot of vort energy that curls up into us until later when we’re already too warm for snow…and even when that happens, it’s strung out vort energy. Of we get a slight bump east or a slight increase in confluence, that could change but for now I’m leaning in the 1-3” range. Seems like most of the mesos are a little better than the gfs, but not like the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS still pretty weak with the thump down here. I’m leaning toward that solution and not really buying the large NAM amounts. There’s just not a lot of vort energy that curls up into us until later when we’re already too warm for snow…and even when that happens, it’s strung out vort energy. Of we get a slight bump east or a slight increase in confluence, that could change but for now I’m leaning in the 1-3” range. Yea, I think 1-3" is the way to go. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Seems like most of the mesos are a little better than the gfs, but not like the nam Yeah HRRR and RGEM were more like 2-4” (maybe a little higher up by you)….There’s some synoptic stuff I don’t love about this one if we’re trying to slam 4-6” in 6-8 hours. Usually want to see a nice broad area of isentropic lift well out ahead and it’s kind of meh…NAM does try for a narrower area and it’s fairly intense, but I hate relying on a thin band. A little shift east or slight increase I confluence would probably do wonders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 39 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: If you get the sun to pop out today it should go along way towards dropping some snow off the limbs. The temp,sun and wind are doing a pretty good job at removing some of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 They issued a WWA for last storm, when 8+ looked inevitable, which it was. Now they issue a Winter Storm Watch when 4 or less looks inevitable. Get with it!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: We do it right down here in the lowlands of Connecticut. All heat, no snow. Snow no, snowdrops yes. Mine are blooming this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, RDRY said: They issued a WWA for last storm, when 8+ looked inevitable, which it was. Now they issue a Winter Storm Watch when 4 or less looks inevitable. Get with it!! NWS changed there criteria for winter storm warnings for coastal areas and elevations, i Believe its 6"/24 hrs for coastal and just inland and in foothills and higher elevations its 8"/24hr period that it has to fall into to meet warning criteria, Outside of those windows, Its WWA's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: NWS changed there criteria for winter storm warnings for coastal areas and elevations, i Believe its 6"/24 hrs for coastal and just inland and in foothills and higher elevations its 8"/24hr period that it has to fall into to meet warning criteria, Outside of those windows, Its WWA's. This is for the Berks (8 for WSW, less if ice is part of forecast, which it's not in this case -- snow to rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 hours ago, mahk_webstah said: Seems like the main issue with this storm, at least up here, is logistical. There was a lot of blowing snow last night so the driveway needs to be snowblown again. That is a long process because it is a long open driveway. Then we get the dump from probably 5p-midnight? 6-10 inches fast? Then on top of that, in the middle of the night, sleet and then rain. Then everything freezes hard Thursday late afternoon evening. Seems we have to hope most of the snow is done early enough to snowblow it away before the rain comes and then it freezes into chunks. It is hard to remove slush with a snow blower. Any sense of how much rain we are getting in different parts of the region? Maybe we drizzle and slot at least in some places? In the end we should have a bullet proof pack compressed to 15-20 inches, fields to forest. Many a night removing snow right before the rains came. Nothing worse than trying to remove waterlogged cement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 18 minutes ago, Hoth said: Snow no, snowdrops yes. Mine are blooming this morning. Forsythia are blooming all along the shore here. 3 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Skiing Crotched mountain today . They got a nice dump last 7 days . 20” Nice saggy power lines in the towns just to their SE around 500-800’ in Amherst, Mount Vernon . Heavy saggy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS still pretty weak with the thump down here. I’m leaning toward that solution and not really buying the large NAM amounts. There’s just not a lot of vort energy that curls up into us until later when we’re already too warm for snow…and even when that happens, it’s strung out vort energy. Of we get a slight bump east or a slight increase in confluence, that could change but for now I’m leaning in the 1-3” range. Will in his 80s mood 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, BrianW said: Forsythia are blooming all along the shore here. Nutty stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Will in his 80s mood Cousin Eddie?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS still pretty weak with the thump down here. I’m leaning toward that solution and not really buying the large NAM amounts. There’s just not a lot of vort energy that curls up into us until later when we’re already too warm for snow…and even when that happens, it’s strung out vort energy. Of we get a slight bump east or a slight increase in confluence, that could change but for now I’m leaning in the 1-3” range. 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I think 1-3" is the way to go. This is what our mets went with pretty much. They did really well in the event yesterday I thought. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Expecting 0.0 here but perhaps we could get half an inch to put me over an inch of snow for the season? Man wouldn’t that just be exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 12z Euro running late, Has not initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Many a night removing snow right before the rains came. Nothing worse than trying to remove waterlogged cement going to be a fine line between the switch over to get driveways cleared out. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z Euro running late, Has not initialized. Out with Crazy Uncle Uke last night? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Out with Crazy Uncle Uke last night? Have not read anything about an issue with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, dryslot said: Have not read anything about an issue with this run. They must be figuring out a way to avoid snow in CT this run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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