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January 23rd Storm Threat: keeping positive vibes, ending chances of futility


TalcottWx
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Now I was mostly scrolling on my phone with beer, but it seemed like the HRRR extended ranges were onto the extent of snow. Maybe a hair too cold (snow band was displaced a little south of where it actually snowed the heaviest today), but overall was sniffing out this cold conveyor location at 12z yesterday.

MTD_HRRRTLE_EXT_NE_snowobj_byhour_202301

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One thing I noticed on modeling while chasing the kids around this weekend was the trend towards a more robust poleward exit region later in the event (i.e. today). 

Initially forcing looked mostly equatorward entrance, a classic WAA thump scenario.

download_(1).png?width=590&height=590&fi

But by now the dominant forcing was from the exit region of the next approaching jet streak. 

download_(2).png?width=590&height=590&fi

That is a class mechanism to get the banding to pivot and involve the cold conveyor.

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