dryslot Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Have to say the CAD won out up here. Public Information Statement National Weather Service Caribou ME 907 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2023 ...UPDATED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Maine... ...Aroostook County... 2 WSW Madawaska 22.0 in 0741 PM 01/13 Public 1 WSW Madawaska 21.3 in 0823 PM 01/13 Public 1 SE Wallagrass 21.0 in 0724 PM 01/13 Public Saint Agatha 21.0 in 0752 PM 01/13 Public Madawaska 21.0 in 0412 PM 01/13 Public 4 ESE Madawaska 20.5 in 0406 PM 01/13 Public 2 ENE Frenchville 20.0 in 0450 PM 01/13 Public 1 SE Frenchville 19.0 in 0521 PM 01/13 Public 1 WSW Winterville 18.0 in 0851 PM 01/13 Public 1 SSE Guerette 18.0 in 0411 PM 01/13 Public Frenchville 18.0 in 0413 PM 01/13 Public Van Buren 18.0 in 0420 PM 01/13 Public 3 SSW Loring 17.0 in 0700 PM 01/13 Public Grand Isle 17.0 in 1120 AM 01/13 Public 2 NE Washburn 16.0 in 0823 PM 01/13 Public 2 N Washburn 16.0 in 1030 AM 01/13 Public 3 W Stockholm 16.0 in 1100 AM 01/13 Public New Sweden 16.0 in 1230 PM 01/13 Public 1 E Limestone 16.0 in 0109 PM 01/13 Trained Spotter Fort Kent 16.0 in 0119 PM 01/13 Public 5 SSE Lille 16.0 in 0242 PM 01/13 Trained Spotter 2 NW Guerette 16.0 in 0433 PM 01/13 Public Dickey 16.0 in 0450 PM 01/13 Trained Spotter 2 S Connor 15.5 in 0514 PM 01/13 NWS Employee 1 NW Allagash 15.0 in 0347 PM 01/13 Trained Spotter Limestone 15.0 in 1228 PM 01/13 Trained Spotter Stockholm 15.0 in 1245 PM 01/13 Public 1 SE Fort Kent 15.0 in 0415 PM 01/13 Trained Spotter 4 SSW Van Buren 15.0 in 0435 PM 01/13 Public Perham 15.0 in 0442 PM 01/13 Public 2 SSE Castle Hill 14.0 in 0848 AM 01/13 NWS Employee 2 WSW Caribou 13.5 in 0200 PM 01/13 NWS Employee 1 N Caribou 13.4 in 1215 PM 01/13 Official NWS Obs 1 W Ashland 12.8 in 0915 AM 01/13 1 W Presque Isle 12.3 in 0921 AM 01/13 NWS Employee 2 NE Fort Fairfield 12.0 in 0858 AM 01/13 NWS Employee Westfield 12.0 in 1000 AM 01/13 Public 2 ENE Caribou 12.0 in 0436 PM 01/13 Public Masardis 12.0 in 0456 PM 01/13 Public Winterville 11.5 in 0710 AM 01/13 Public 1 S Limestone 11.5 in 0715 AM 01/13 Trained Spotter 2 SE Presque Isle 11.0 in 0830 AM 01/13 Public 1 SE Presque Isle 11.0 in 1000 AM 01/13 Trained Spotter Caribou 10.7 in 0745 AM 01/13 NWS Employee 3 SE Fort Fairfield 10.5 in 0349 PM 01/13 Trained Spotter Presque Isle 10.0 in 0411 PM 01/13 Public 2 S Ashland 10.0 in 0412 PM 01/13 Public Monticello 10.0 in 0417 PM 01/13 Public Bridgewater 9.0 in 0745 AM 01/13 Public 1 NNW Macwahoc 5.0 in 0524 AM 01/13 Trained Spotter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Light snow in Westfield, starting to dust the ground. 31° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Have to say the CAD won out up here. Public Information Statement National Weather Service Caribou ME 907 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2023 ...UPDATED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Maine... ...Aroostook County... 2 WSW Madawaska 22.0 in 0741 PM 01/13 Public 1 WSW Madawaska 21.3 in 0823 PM 01/13 Public 1 SE Wallagrass 21.0 in 0724 PM 01/13 Public Saint Agatha 21.0 in 0752 PM 01/13 Public Madawaska 21.0 in 0412 PM 01/13 Public 4 ESE Madawaska 20.5 in 0406 PM 01/13 Public 2 ENE Frenchville 20.0 in 0450 PM 01/13 Public 1 SE Frenchville 19.0 in 0521 PM 01/13 Public 1 WSW Winterville 18.0 in 0851 PM 01/13 Public 1 SSE Guerette 18.0 in 0411 PM 01/13 Public Frenchville 18.0 in 0413 PM 01/13 Public Van Buren 18.0 in 0420 PM 01/13 Public 3 SSW Loring 17.0 in 0700 PM 01/13 Public Grand Isle 17.0 in 1120 AM 01/13 Public 2 NE Washburn 16.0 in 0823 PM 01/13 Public 2 N Washburn 16.0 in 1030 AM 01/13 Public 3 W Stockholm 16.0 in 1100 AM 01/13 Public New Sweden 16.0 in 1230 PM 01/13 Public 1 E Limestone 16.0 in 0109 PM 01/13 Trained Spotter Fort Kent 16.0 in 0119 PM 01/13 Public 5 SSE Lille 16.0 in 0242 PM 01/13 Trained Spotter 2 NW Guerette 16.0 in 0433 PM 01/13 Public Dickey 16.0 in 0450 PM 01/13 Trained Spotter 2 S Connor 15.5 in 0514 PM 01/13 NWS Employee 1 NW Allagash 15.0 in 0347 PM 01/13 Trained Spotter Limestone 15.0 in 1228 PM 01/13 Trained Spotter Stockholm 15.0 in 1245 PM 01/13 Public 1 SE Fort Kent 15.0 in 0415 PM 01/13 Trained Spotter 4 SSW Van Buren 15.0 in 0435 PM 01/13 Public Perham 15.0 in 0442 PM 01/13 Public 2 SSE Castle Hill 14.0 in 0848 AM 01/13 NWS Employee 2 WSW Caribou 13.5 in 0200 PM 01/13 NWS Employee 1 N Caribou 13.4 in 1215 PM 01/13 Official NWS Obs 1 W Ashland 12.8 in 0915 AM 01/13 1 W Presque Isle 12.3 in 0921 AM 01/13 NWS Employee 2 NE Fort Fairfield 12.0 in 0858 AM 01/13 NWS Employee Westfield 12.0 in 1000 AM 01/13 Public 2 ENE Caribou 12.0 in 0436 PM 01/13 Public Masardis 12.0 in 0456 PM 01/13 Public Winterville 11.5 in 0710 AM 01/13 Public 1 S Limestone 11.5 in 0715 AM 01/13 Trained Spotter 2 SE Presque Isle 11.0 in 0830 AM 01/13 Public 1 SE Presque Isle 11.0 in 1000 AM 01/13 Trained Spotter Caribou 10.7 in 0745 AM 01/13 NWS Employee 3 SE Fort Fairfield 10.5 in 0349 PM 01/13 Trained Spotter Presque Isle 10.0 in 0411 PM 01/13 Public 2 S Ashland 10.0 in 0412 PM 01/13 Public Monticello 10.0 in 0417 PM 01/13 Public Bridgewater 9.0 in 0745 AM 01/13 Public 1 NNW Macwahoc 5.0 in 0524 AM 01/13 Trained Spotter Onto the trails for you! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 All this excitement for a little glaze and flakes/dusting. This reads like mid-Atlantic thread. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 13 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: All this excitement for a little glaze and flakes/dusting. This reads like mid-Atlantic thread. It's all we got right now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man.. if you like winter , please don’t look at the overnight EPS. Right back to fast Pacific flow and -PNA. Not great As I feared the last two days GEFS is the new king never waivered on not having the great pattern the eps had, eps finally fully caved. We still have our chances starting with two threats next week. Someone up north could cash in. Expectations for now are rain at my latitude. Good luck up north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 14, 2023 Author Share Posted January 14, 2023 55 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Probably messy mixed events some rainers and hopefully some snowers, not a snow pack look , but maybe we can hope for a huge icer yeah, a major ice storm with lots of destruction and extended outages would turn this winter around 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 16 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: As I feared the last two days GEFS is the new king never waivered on not having the great pattern the eps had, eps finally fully caved. We still have our chances starting with two threats next week. Someone up north could cash in. Expectations for now are rain at my latitude. Good luck up north. Agreed, West has been cashing in and the pattern change just makes it even colder out west with still a very active pattern for them. Lots of cutters continue on this side of the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 39 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: All this excitement for a little glaze and flakes/dusting. This reads like mid-Atlantic an Atlanta thread. FYP... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 27 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: As I feared the last two days GEFS is the new king never waivered on not having the great pattern the eps had, eps finally fully caved. We still have our chances starting with two threats next week. Someone up north could cash in. Expectations for now are rain at my latitude. Good luck up north. Rain begets rain. At least the reservoirs are doing well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 16 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Agreed, West has been cashing in and the pattern change just makes it even colder out west with still a very active pattern for them. Lots of cutters continue on this side of the country Disagree. This is an improvement on gefs and a pretty good look overall. You’re too focused on wc troughing and a continuation of the current pattern as a result. Cutter chance, sure, but this isn’t the same ole pattern. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Halifax, NS warmer than Miami, FL right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Disagree. This is an improvement on gefs and a pretty good look overall. You’re too focused on wc troughing and a continuation of the current pattern as a result. Cutter chance, sure, but this isn’t the same ole pattern. Also swfe and miller b if the highs to the north hold. Chances and risks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Rain freezing now 31⁰ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Don’t count on a +PNA this winter. But that’s at least a look where there’s a lot of arctic cold around. I’m sure there will still be cutters but we can score well in that pattern too. Just hope we finally catch a couple breaks. I'm noticing the overnight EPS/GEFs means are converging on the unfortunate west biased +PNA distribution ... ... again. So in short, that bold may be profound advice ( to put it dryly). And I drop the mic like that because it did precisely this upon two other occasions in the Dec blocking era. It's not like there is less precedence to sore-up butts. Longer winded op ed... What is driving that? speculatively, it may be the models physically blending La Nina forcing, up under/in tandem with Asian forced redistribution ( a process taking place now). You can see in the model runs how/why the Pac circulation mode changes, eventually lending to North American modulation.... Below is 00z EPS initialization, and the chart just below is 10 days later... Over the course of these next 10 days, a time in which this pattern change is expected to take place... this all works out to the following look.. The thing is, the La Nina was noted as weakening ...not just speculated by me, but also CPC MJO monitoring published the statement in the weekly publication, last Monday. So what happens? 5 days later and the MJO is almost dead out of nowhere, after it was impressive through phase 8-1-2 for over a week's worth of consistent RMM guidance. It's just pulled the greatest con job from that particular index I've seen. Or, this is typical for modeling pattern changes and getting strange results. I don't know though.. this above looks like a compromise between Nina and Asian forcing, though. Seeing these recent en mass ensemble trends, cross-guidance, putting us back in the west biased +PNA distribution - I don't know if means the same series/redux over Dec, but... that era failed pretty horribly to deliver, when for 3 solid weeks we were immersed in a hemisphere situated with a +PNA(-AO/-NAO). Warmer than normal for the trip, too. We had the one arctic outbreak led by the Buffalo bomb, but it almost failed to get in here - and the arctic outbreak it self? It was colder in the hyperbole meme-machine of mass media. They kept marketing it as "the coldest Christmas" ever - phrases to that affect.. I'm like, "Wtf does that mean. Who cares? Xmas is an arbitrary date along the vagaries of wind and weather" Not to disrespect 44 deaths attributed to the Buffalo event. Deaths can happen in a dense fog in an Interstate pile-up. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Disagree. This is an improvement on gefs and a pretty good look overall. You’re too focused on wc troughing and a continuation of the current pattern as a result. Cutter chance, sure, but this isn’t the same ole pattern. It’s a much colder pattern in the northeast than we’ve had. There is still a risk we keep getting screwed on cutters but at least there’s a bit more wiggle room on imperfect tracks in a pattern like that. Just keep an eye on where the PV goes in future guidance. If we start seeing go back into western Canada, then I’ll agree with noreaster27 that it’s the same old look, but if the PV ends up over Hudson Bay or adjacent Quebec, that’s a lot different. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s a much colder pattern in the northeast than we’ve had. There is still a risk we keep getting screwed on cutters but at least there’s a bit more wiggle room on imperfect tracks in a pattern like that. Just keep an eye on where the PV goes in future guidance. If we start seeing go back into western Canada, then I’ll agree with noreaster27 that it’s the same old look, but if the PV ends up over Hudson Bay or adjacent Quebec, that’s a lot different. If I’m remembering correctly, I believe the PNA was negative during the February ’13 blizzard. But obviously things worked out like you explained. I remember folks were worried about the storm not working out, due to that. Also in that GEFS depiction above, the TPV is centered just to the east of Hudson Bay, that’s a good spot for it I’d imagine for us. Hopefully that can hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s a much colder pattern in the northeast than we’ve had. There is still a risk we keep getting screwed on cutters but at least there’s a bit more wiggle room on imperfect tracks in a pattern like that. Just keep an eye on where the PV goes in future guidance. If we start seeing go back into western Canada, then I’ll agree with noreaster27 that it’s the same old look, but if the PV ends up over Hudson Bay or adjacent Quebec, that’s a lot different. Of course Will, but think it drills into the WC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Gfs tried to tell ‘em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 But ... in any case, there are couple of events to monitor in guidance that are not really a part of or immersed in the d(pattern) consideration. 19/20 and ... circa 23/24. ...hard not to assume lesser returns on investment, given the road and unrelenting persistence to do so.. The 18z run of the GEFs mean was probably the best of the EPS/GEFs last 3 cycles, which unfortunately ...nods to the assumption. But we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: But ... in any case, there are couple of events to monitor in guidance that are not really a part of or immersed in the d(pattern) consideration. 19/20 and ... circa 23/24. ...hard not to assume lesser returns on investment, given the road and unrelenting persistence to do so.. The 18z run of the GEFs mean was probably the best of the EPS/GEFs last 3 cycles, which unfortunately ...nods to the assumption. But we'll see I think we’re due for something to break our way, I mean the area averages 50-60”+ for a reason. It’s unlikely we keep swinging and missing. I’m even ok with a foul tip or weak grounder to second at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 12z Icon is nice north of the pike for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 28 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: I think we’re due for something to break our way, I mean the area averages 50-60”+ for a reason. It’s unlikely we keep swinging and missing. I’m even ok with a foul tip or weak grounder to second at this point. yeah..I dunno. I'm starting to internally materialize miss-givings about the climate use in the discussion. Those 50-60" might be tainted by two aspects;I start to wonder if they belie the 'real' climate? In other words, that 'reason' is defaulting more and more false in this speculation. We are getting 'spike' phenomenon event/eras, more frequently than we used to ... along a mean of more abysmal productivity years. Those spikes are huge, too. Like the increase in the 12+" storm frequency. Or 2015 ..etc. Those skew the averages higher, perhaps - speculation part - more than the "mode of expectation" should really be. You could almost parse out, 'our climate suggests lowering seasonal snow totals, with offset years being much larger still a possibility' - something like this. Which really requires a deeper qualitative analysis than using the 30 year mean of snow... etc... If that were true, objectively it doesn't make a lot of sense to think we're eventually entitled to 50-60" years The other aspect... the climate's been changing fast enough that 30 years may also weight the average falsely, anyway, regardless of 'spikes skewing means as speculation'. I've heard these recent years ...well, basically since 2015, sort of compared to the 1980s? Ah, having lived that decade in full sentient awareness, I can tell you this is different. We are doing so now, when 7 out of 10 or even 8 out of 10 months are routinely above normal temperatures... Regardless of ENSO this, or polar index that. The daily cents in the till, are adding up more proportional to seasonal dollars. Mm...sorry, that barks CC having a hand in matters. I'm starting to wonder if at planetary scales, we might get around to seeing a year that leaps... where its not only the warmest in history, but it does so by more than 10th of a decimal. Just more speculation. I just wonder if our snow climate bands are not really what they presently are. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Let’s cut next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Let’s cut next week. FU 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Let’s cut next week. I don’t have any faith in that system to be a snower for us. Pure gravy if it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I don’t have any faith in that system to be a snower for us. Pure gravy if it is. Gfs will be right. Garbage airmass ahead of it. Rains to Maines. What else is new. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I don’t have any faith in that system to be a snower for us. Pure gravy if it is. You kind of sounded a lil more optimistic yesterday about that system next week Will…? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs will be right. Garbage airmass ahead of it. Rains to Maines. What else is new. Well…the grass is greener now than this past summer. It can use the water. Some sun and 50 midweek, let’s get things going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: You kind of sounded a lil more optimistic yesterday about that system next week Will…? There was a distinct trend yesterday but it was fleeting. The only way to make that system snow is to time the confluence perfectly. That’s plausible but unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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