January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

If you didn’t wear a winter coat in Xmas Eve, you don’t need to own one at all. It was like 10F and windy. Lol. 

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

PAC jet retracts and the dateline ridge forms which dumps the blues into CA. Yikes 

At least someone's getting snow. Mountains out west have been getting hammered. Should be better news for those drought regions this spring & summer if it continues. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

not epic but could be workable up here.  seems there will be scooter highs to the north.

EPS was def better because it has the lower heights just offshore the west coast which often creates a bit of ridging in the Rockies. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

At least someone's getting snow. Mountains out west have been getting hammered. Should be better news for those drought regions this spring & summer if it continues. 

Happy for them……

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s actually not a bad look overall. Esp for interior and NNE. It’s pretty active. I wouldn’t want to be on coast or further south though. Can’t sustain ridging up by Yukon so arctic cold will be limited. 

The winter would have to be extremely terrible for those places to get skunked. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Scooter .. are you worried? 

Oh hell ya he is we all are that was a horrendous overnight run of all 3 ensembles. We have to revert back to yesterdays runs today.  Unreal winter with the west coast trough persistence. 

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

EPS was def better because it has the lower heights just offshore the west coast which often creates a bit of ridging in the Rockies. 

I'm not a fan of those patterns that look epic for the Mid Atl and SNE.  They tend to not work out here.  I like swfe patterns and ones that occassionally bomb out miller b style.  And patterns that produce clippers into really cold air.  Sometimes we can do well on the "epic" patterns, but often not.

That being said I'm not looking for a pattern that dumps all the cold and energy into the west.

[dryslot]

22 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

With the exception of losing a really warm day (which is always nice) GYX is optimistic re the return of winter.  Ya wonder how much that Thursday low will bring.  But either way, there should be a frozen coating for snow to begin to lie on at some point in the not too distant future post Friday.

For the temperature and resultant precipitation forecast,
primarily colder guidance, especially the high res NAM was
used. There is still likely some room to bring temperatures down
further in future forecast packages for Tuesday as all of the
guidance trends in the cool direction. Outside of the mountain
valleys it`s unlikely that any areas would stay below freezing
for more than a few hours once the precip begins, but temps are
likely to sit between 33-36 degrees much of the day afterwards,
with the highs for the day likely occuring in the late afternoon
and evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Based on a multi model consensus it appears like winter returns
to much of the forecast area as cold air sags southward out of
Canada and allows for overrunning precipitation from time to
time Tuesday night into Friday.

While temperatures warm appreciable aloft Tuesday night (up to
+11c at 850MB in the southern zones), weak SFC low pressure
looks to form in the Gulf of Maine as well which should keep any
sort of warm front from zooming northward through our forecast
area. While highs around 60 are still possible for southern NH
on Wednesday, the rest of the region should see highs falling
into the 40s and 30s as cold air bleeds in from the north as per
many of the 00z deterministic models. Have blended several of
these models in with the NBM which I believe is still too warm
for Wednesday. With overrunning precipitation expected on
Wednesday and cold air undercutting the warm air aloft, we
should see some frozen or freezing precipitation falling in the
mountains by the end of the day with some freezing rain
accretion likely.

The forcing for ascent wanes Wednesday night but warm and moist
SW flow above a cooling boundary layer should still offer light
precipitation, a mix of snow and freezing rain as far south as
portions of central NH and southernmost ME by 12z Thursday.
Therefore a slippery morning commute Thursday is quite possible.
Light frozen or freezing precipitation continues Thursday as
another low pressure system develops just off the coast with
cold air now firmly entrenched at the SFC most areas of the
forecast area.

Yeah, Looks like some back door action late week if the timing is right, I'm pretty skeptical though as luck for much of anything hasn't been on our side.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

The winter would have to be extremely terrible for those places to get skunked. 

Those areas will need to get some big hits in the coming weeks to get to avg climo snowfall imo. You can’t punt so many weeks in those areas 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

not epic but could be workable up here.  seems there will be scooter highs to the north.

Verbatim it’s ok, that pattern does promote highs to the north. But, here we go again with that look. 

[Kitz Craver]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If you didn’t wear a winter coat in Xmas Eve, you don’t need to own one at all. It was like 10F and windy. Lol. 

Yeah that’s like the kid in 8th grade who came in with shorts when it was -15 wind chill, “what? It’s not that cold”

[wx2fish]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Scooter .. are you worried? 

Hes out burning the Christmas tree and a few of the kids presents 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Verbatim it’s ok, that pattern does promote highs to the north. But, here we go again with that look. 

Whatever happens happens?

[Snowcrazed71]

Let's try a different approach. Let's look at a few of our big blizzards we've had over the last 10 years and what weather pattern was showing to the upcoming event. Did we have an epic pattern showing up before we had the big snow storms, or was it just meh? 

Let's look at the two big snow storms. The one in 2013 which I believe was Juno, and the one in 2015.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, wx2fish said:

Hes out burning the Christmas tree and a few of the kids presents 

You can sense the melt is coming. Many days of kids noses pressed against windows stuck inside next few months 

[dendrite]

34 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

It was an academic question.  I was looking for an answer from a real met.

Well the divergent regions of jetstreaks are in the left front and right rear quadrants. That was the common terminology when I was growing up although in college I had a professor that chose to use equatorward entrance and poleward exit region…and that may be easier for someone to imagine and recall while looking at upper level maps.

But my point was there’s a lot of spread with that many members that far out. These regions of extra upper level divergence/convergence within jetstreaks are at a relatively small scale compared to the global and synoptic flow so it’s kind of a moot point. It’s like seeing isobars hanging back on an SLP mean at d15 and reading it as inverted trough potential whereas it’s just spread amongst the differing members. 
 

Also, the base of the trough axes tend to have relatively lower wind speeds so you wouldn’t expect to see a jetstreak like that in that position of the trough anyway. Usually in coastals we have the trough axis to our west and we’re looking for that jetstreak on the east side of the trough and the left front quad somewhere  around or inside the benchmark. The classic dual jet setups have another jet to our E/NE and the right rear quadrant paired with the left front one along the coast.

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Flip flops are your "thing" not mine...

Sorry sandals with white socks is probably your game.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Those areas will need to get some big hits in the coming weeks to get to avg climo snowfall imo. You can’t punt so many weeks in those areas 

1 storm can do so so plenty left.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Let's try a different approach. Let's look at a few of our big blizzards we've had over the last 10 years and what weather pattern was showing to the upcoming event. Did we have an epic pattern showing up before we had the big snow storms, or was it just meh? 

Let's look at the two big snow storms. The one in 2013 which I believe was Juno, and the one in 2015.

Both of those patterns were pretty epic. That was part of the funny meltdowns….people were throwing tantrums left and right about not getting anything and then they both showed up inside of 6 days. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Whatever happens happens?

At this point yes. Months and months of mud. I may pave my whole yard. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Let's try a different approach. Let's look at a few of our big blizzards we've had over the last 10 years and what weather pattern was showing to the upcoming event. Did we have an epic pattern showing up before we had the big snow storms, or was it just meh? 

Let's look at the two big snow storms. The one in 2013 which I believe was Juno, and the one in 2015.

Epic patterns produce 90% of the time. 2011 2013 2015 2017 2018 2019 storms were all epic patterns 

[ORH_wxman]

Regardless of the very end of the ensembles, people should not overlook the favorable look mid-month just before that. 
 

 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

At this point yes. Months and months of mud. I may pave my whole yard. 

Keep a small patch of grass for a spot to sit your temp sensor.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

You’re not going to get conditions like Alta, Utah. Deal with it. You’ll have plenty of time to make up for crappy conditions man made and naturally. If your wife still complains, she’s probably a big PITA and needs to go. 

Maybe as a consolation prize well Be able to ski the deaths ribbons in shorts and t shirts?!

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

So, what do we have like a 4 day favorable period? Lol.

Epicosity 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Maybe as a consolation prize well Be able to ski the deaths ribbons in shorts and t shirts?!

The ski areas will be fine. They’ll be natural and man made while avoiding rain. I don’t get the angst. 

[kdxken]

47 minutes ago, Sled said:

Winter in New England. Do you wear gloves to stay warm, or take them off so you can actually grab things and work?

Thin gloves

[MJO812]

Calm your weenies down

Winter is eventually coming 

[qg_omega]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Regardless of the very end of the ensembles, people should not overlook the favorable look mid-month just before that. 
 

 

lol

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Ray has disappeared, that should also speak volumes