"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[Modfan2]

BOX wind forecast 

 

[UnitedWx]

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I am not totally sold on a higher-end wind event region-wide within the warm sector of this. I think we'll see some gusts in the 40-50 mph range and of course higher within the typically favored higher elevation areas but there is a decent inversion on soundings and low-level lapse rates aren't the greatest. All in all this will be a typical cool season dynamic wind event...nothing over the top impressive. 

But there could be a low topped line that organizes and could enhance wind potential locally.

Winds will probably be more impressive with the CAA.

In my area I really feel we'll have more wind impact from the cold front passage Friday afternoon than anything beforehand

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’ll take the under on 60 mph gusts here 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's a 'model error' climate that suggests not being too liberal with wind. 

I admit to being somewhat weary of that and letting it influence my sense of 'urgency' leading this, and recognizing some of those factors you note - it's like given any reason to limit and we bust wind headlines..

However, Ryan's been posting some rather impressive material over the last couple of days - eventually...one of these times, we'll get a break through.  

We did have that over SE zones a couple three years ago.... folks may or may not recall that? I can't re the specific dates - but there was pig wind signal which turned out both true and false.  It was false here in the interior, but simultaneously OVER performed if anything over the SE coastal plain..etc.   I have this event in mind too - though it's not a analytic comparison...  just to point out that break through can take place.

I haven't looked in phenomenal detail but quickly looking at soundings across the region it's tough to see much support for a wind event which is typically higher than what we usually see with these set ups. 40-55 mph per gusts are still pretty decent and will lead to power outages but it won't be anything abnormal. 

The llvl jet is certainly going to be screaming but how much of that are we going to tap into without the aid of convection or convective elements? Typically in these setups that do produce we end up with some pretty steep lapse rates in the low-levels to aid mixing and more times then not the strongest winds come when there is no precipitation falling as the column then become saturated and profile is conditionally stable. 

Just looking at soundings across the region there seems to be some big mixing questions and of course the inversion that always happens and sometimes is even underdone. 

I do think, however, we will see winds on the CAA be quite strong and that's where we could see 60-70 mph gusts across a large area.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

In my area I really feel we'll have more wind impact from the cold front passage Friday afternoon than anything beforehand

agreed

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[CoastalWx]

NAM has LLJ ahead of front and inverted. 

[dryslot]

The wind potential with these higher sustained winds then you add in the gust potential will be devastating, CMP has elected to keep all the crews that have been here from out of state here throughout

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM has LLJ ahead of front and inverted. 

I’m gassing up the generator and my cans, but I’m not expecting anything overly exciting here.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

We are prepping to become refugees tomorrow night. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Yea man. Brutal cold friday night and the holiday weekend upon us…being without power sounds like a great time. 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM has LLJ ahead of front and inverted. 

That won't get it done for big winds....esp away from the exposed areas near the coast. Seems like best shot may be post-FROPA on a quick pulse where the sounding becomes a little more unstable.

[dendrite]

Peak gust O/U for mby is 25mph

[Typhoon Tip]

The storm has sped up over the last six days…

Just some armchair obs morning

… The that it doesn’t really stick around very long and it wraps up really quick and pulls up over the northern Ontario and actually more than less disappears completely off the face of the maps within short days I think it’s really conceding to the fact that it’s a progressive baseline that we’re sort of either heading towards, or maybe already in deceptively hidden.  

We didn’t know at the time … but it was never going to be a slow down stall or like the Cleveland super bomb and all that stuff. Nor is it going to establish those exceedingly low pressures and set records like it looked like it could either… Seems like we have been again victimized by neutering system as it gets into nearer terms.  The system will still be hugely powerful… Such that shaving 20 or 30% still leaves a major impact - or can.

I’m noticing the QPF in most guidance the great lakes for snow is dropped some over the last 48 hours … Chicago may not even get much snow from this after the initial arctic front, I wonder   I mean it looks like it could almost be an ‘arctic sands’ storm perhaps enhanced by embedded or integrated lake affect. I’ve seen something like this when I used to live in Western Michigan where for a time, it gets really cold and a lot of winds and so much fracturing that you end up with just this cryo-miasma coming off the lake as opposed to organized bands. 

Not taking pot shots at a really impressive system and the execution of what was a great early detection for a North American storm signal… Its unfortunate it couldn’t work out better for us as winter enthusiast in our local region but sometimes you get the bear …sometimes the ‘bare’ gets you. 

The only thing I’m a little critical over is that we’ve all been assuming this tremendous result but the storm’s had a kind of disorganize or disjointed surface anchor point for quite a while -even at this late stage it seems like it’s still sort of stretching the surface low.  I believe a lot of that is because there’s weaker baroclinic gradients  out ahead of the Arctic front so without those ambient more concentrated frontal boundary- related mechanics …the actual cyclone model is a little bit disrupted. That might be why we’re not getting quite the real depth/focal point in the surface that those striking MLV would argue possible.  But I think it’s also feeding back and why some of the QPF is starting to get vacated. 

[CT Rain]

The NAM is quite lame as has been mentioned. 

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We are prepping to become refugees tomorrow night. 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

 

That’s the song playing as I usher my family into the suv, trunk full, heading south to warmer pastures and electricity.
 

Deep winter of 22/23… 

[ineedsnow]

14 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The NAM is quite lame as has been mentioned. 

meh as usual maybe gust to 45  50?   just hoping to keep some snow otg 

[MJO812]

This is just a powerful cold front 

[jbenedet]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The storm has sped up over the last six days…

Just some armchair obs morning

… The that it doesn’t really stick around very long and it wraps up really quick and pulls up over the northern Ontario and actually more than less disappears completely off the face of the maps within short days I think it’s really conceding to the fact that it’s a progressive baseline that we’re sort of either heading towards, or maybe already in deceptively hidden.  

We didn’t know at the time … but it was never going to be a slow down stall or like the Cleveland super bomb and all that stuff. Nor is it going to establish those exceedingly low pressures and set records like it looked like it could either… Seems like we have been again victimized by neutering system as it gets into nearer terms.  The system will still be hugely powerful… Such that shaving 20 or 30% still leaves a major impact - or can.

I’m noticing the QPF in most guidance the great lakes for snow is dropped some over the last 48 hours … Chicago may not even get much snow from this after the initial arctic front, I wonder   I mean it looks like it could almost be an ‘arctic sands’ storm perhaps enhanced by embedded or integrated lake affect. I’ve seen something like this when I used to live in Western Michigan where for a time, it gets really cold and a lot of winds and so much fracturing that you end up with just this cryo-miasma coming off the lake as opposed to organized bands. 

Not taking pot shots at a really impressive system and the execution of what was a great early detection for a North American storm signal… Its unfortunate it couldn’t work out better for us as winter enthusiast in our local region but sometimes you get the bear …sometimes the ‘bare’ gets you. 

The only thing I’m a little critical over is that we’ve all been assuming this tremendous result but the storm’s had a kind of disorganize or disjointed surface anchor point for quite a while -even at this late stage it seems like it’s still sort of stretching the surface low.  I believe a lot of that is because there’s weaker baroclinic gradients  out ahead of the Arctic front so without those ambient more concentrated frontal boundary- related mechanics …the actual cyclone model is a little bit disrupted. That might be why we’re not getting quite the real depth/focal point in the surface that those striking MLV would argue possible.  But I think it’s also feeding back and why some of the QPF is starting to get vacated. 

She cuts off really early at 500 and 700; at the same time the surface reflection is ~1000 mb.  I have always much less preferred such evolutions. Positive feedbacks between surface and UL's are greatly limited. Which is why the CCB snows (absent the LES enhancement) are so lame. The biggest snows occur when this thing is fully stacked and weakening; contrary to what we typically see. And that is in Ontario Canada, with widespread 12-24" amounts, which is certainly respectable. So the threat for a widespread heavy snowfall in the CONUS remains, but we need to see it fully vertically stacked some 500 miles further south than latest guidance. 

[Whineminster]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

meh as usual maybe gust to 45  50?   just hoping to keep some snow otg 

Yeah, winds never verify here. Except in that October derecho over a year ago.

[weatherwiz]

I would seriously watch Friday morning for severe potential though. NAM has some decent instability traversing with steep lapse rates. Could see a damaging convective line wind event and there is even potential for a tornado. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Gfs and Euro were completely different than the Nam. Unless they switch nam is ignored 

[jbenedet]

All criticisms aside, there will be some hell to pay for this level of UL forcing. The Southwest wind threat with the arctic front looks most threatening right now, overall. But the biggest threat looks like CT river West, where height falls are steepest. W CT looks most primed, where lapse rates are most unstable. Persistent strong southeasterly winds out ahead, off the relatively warm, moist Atlantic, set the stage.

 

 

[Modfan2]

56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

MR Speed would be an appropriate song here, and probably a top 5 and most underrated song in their catalog!

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

MR Speed would be an appropriate song here, and probably a top 5 and most underrated song in their catalog!

Agreed on that song. You be of my favorites by Kiss

 

[Cyclone-68]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Happy birthday Peter Criss 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I would seriously watch Friday morning for severe potential though. NAM has some decent instability traversing with steep lapse rates. Could see a damaging convective line wind event and there is even potential for a tornado. 

Will you chase in your Santa outfit?

[Cyclone-68]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Will you chase in your Santa outfit?

All I want for Christmas is an EF3 under my tree 

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Will you chase in your Santa outfit?

I'll be dropping TOR's under people's trees