"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[512high]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Mtns of NH and ME will get some front end, Even VT too on NAM.

Scott, regarding rainfall for Northern Ma, SNH you talking over 1"?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 512high said:

Scott, regarding rainfall for Northern Ma, SNH you talking over 1"?

Yes, good chance of 1-2". 

[BuffaloWeather]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Unmitigated violence for BUF perhaps. Wow.

Never seen anything like it. I might be at 150" before the new year lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Never seen anything like it. I may be at 150" before the new year lol.

Well, there is the "generational" storm that I called for in January....unfortunately its in the Great Lakes in December.

[WinterWolf]

Dam some folks have all the fortune…

[WinterWolf]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, there is the "generational" storm that I called for in January....unfortunately its in the Great Lakes in December.

Could pull a ‘78 and we get two of em? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Could pull a ‘78 and we get two of em? 

They were about 2 weeks apart and there is zero sign of anything of that magnitude.

[qg_omega]

Generational storm? not seeing that at all

[BuffaloWeather]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, there is the "generational" storm that I called for in January....unfortunately its in the Great Lakes in December.

Always love reading your winter outlooks. Most detailed one out there.

[DJln491]

All that snow AND their football team doesn't throw last second laterals to piss away the game, when the game was tied.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

It doesn't....the Dec 25, 2020 comps are not going to pan out. I don't see a prolonged mega-warm sector residence time with the CAD showing up. It will rain and be mild for a time, but it seems like less than 12 hours in the true warm sector....prob closer to 7-8 hours in NNE. Seems like the warm sector hits late morning/midday for NNE and by early evening, Powderfreak is already posting pics of parachutes falling in Stowe as the front passes through.

That's somewhat comforting though still a major Grinch incoming.  Unless that 7-8 hour period includes 2"+ RA at near 50, our area will retain decent depth for a white Christmas.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

They were about 2 weeks apart and there is zero sign of anything of that magnitude.

We can’t see two weeks apart at this stage to save our lives.  But I agree..it is very much against the odds.  Just found it funny.   

[TheMainer]

44 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its coming down to wind and rain outside of the mountains starting as some frozen precip, Maybe something on the back end but i would never rely on that,  I think nothing has changed on that front for days, Looks to flash freeze thereafter.

 

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

That's somewhat comforting though still a major Grinch incoming.  Unless that 7-8 hour period includes 2"+ RA at near 50, our area will retain decent depth for a white Christmas.

I'm hoping our area can get less than 2 inches of rain and we might keep some pack. 8 inches in the lower elevations of the system, a foot in town, over 16 inches above 1,000 feet. Was tough going Sunday out clearing blow downs.

[tamarack]

9 minutes ago, TheMainer said:

 

I'm hoping our area can get less than 2 inches of rain and we might keep some pack. 8 inches in the lower elevations of the system, a foot in town, over 16 inches above 1,000 feet. Was tough going Sunday out clearing blow downs.

Neighbor (and snomo club groomer pilot) had to cut a number of fir carcasses out of a relatively short stretch of the trail by our woodlot.  If we get the big wind Friday (we're usually somewhat sheltered here) he'll have to do it all over again.

[dryslot]

13 minutes ago, TheMainer said:

 

I'm hoping our area can get less than 2 inches of rain and we might keep some pack. 8 inches in the lower elevations of the system, a foot in town, over 16 inches above 1,000 feet. Was tough going Sunday out clearing blow downs.

I think chances up there are better at least with some front snow end and possibly backside, But blow downs look to be again another problem.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Neighbor (and snomo club groomer pilot) had to cut a number of fir carcasses out of a relatively short stretch of the trail by our woodlot.  If we get the big wind Friday (we're usually somewhat sheltered here) he'll have to do it all over again.

Its looking more like that will be the case, I'm quite exposed here to that wind direction so if we come even remotely close to what models are spitting out for winds at the surface especially as the cold front approaches, There's going to be big problems here in the coastal plain and along the coast especially with the astronomical high tides.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

We can’t see two weeks apart at this stage to save our lives.  But I agree..it is very much against the odds.  Just found it funny.   

I thought you meant more imminent than that. Yea, I still expect something big at some point in January.

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I thought you meant more imminent than that. Yea, I still expect something big at some point in January.

Oh ya I got what you meant bud. I was meaning two in one season…not necessarily a couple weeks apart. Be nice to get an east coast version at some point. 

[MJO812]

From midwest forum

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Generational storm? not seeing that at all

Ya I mean honestly that Buffalo AFD deserved a ton of weenies to me 

Looks great at 5H , maybe buffalo sees 12-18 of Lake effect 

[ariof]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

That's somewhat comforting though still a major Grinch incoming.  Unless that 7-8 hour period includes 2"+ RA at near 50, our area will retain decent depth for a white Christmas.

2020 was a mega-grinch.

To cherry-pick some 2020 stats: a station near Quebec City was >40 for 20 hours (may stay below 40 this entire storm). Middlebury Snow Bowl was >40 for 36 hours and >45 for 31 of those, peaking around 56. This time should be 6 above 40 and maybe 0 above 45 at the Snow Bowl. Once the CAD dam broke at BML, it spent 42 hours above 40 and then only slowly fell back to freezing. Of course, the models undersold that a few days out, but there was no arctic blast behind it. 

Of course the grinch to end all grinches may have been in 2015. RUT had one reading below 30 over the course of the week with a high of 70; friends celebrating Christmas south of there in Vermont said "normally we go skating on the pond but this year we went swimming." At least 2015 didn't melt 4' of snow which had fallen a year before. Given the density of the current pack, some rain at 40 degrees might just soak in and once it freezes, it will freeze real solid.

So I guess it could be worse?

 

[Damage In Tolland]

We generation 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

This is not a devastating grinch storm up north. 
 

like 8 hours above 40 degrees with 1” rain N VT and 2” for upslope areas of NNE. Also euro shows .5 of that qpf falling as snow  4-8”’of from S - Central VT to Whites . So ya not a good storm, but meh they will have cold temps to blow snow and resurface 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, ariof said:

2020 was a mega-grinch.

To cherry-pick some 2020 stats: a station near Quebec City was >40 for 20 hours (may stay below 40 this entire storm). Middlebury Snow Bowl was >40 for 36 hours and >45 for 31 of those, peaking around 56. This time should be 6 above 40 and maybe 0 above 45 at the Snow Bowl. Once the CAD dam broke at BML, it spent 42 hours above 40 and then only slowly fell back to freezing. Of course, the models undersold that a few days out, but there was no arctic blast behind it. 

Of course the grinch to end all grinches may have been in 2015. RUT had one reading below 30 over the course of the week with a high of 70; friends celebrating Christmas south of there in Vermont said "normally we go skating on the pond but this year we went swimming." At least 2015 didn't melt 4' of snow which had fallen a year before. Given the density of the current pack, some rain at 40 degrees might just soak in and once it freezes, it will freeze real solid.

So I guess it could be worse?

 

This is nothing like 2020 in terms of pack-destroying ability. It maybe had potential to be when there was much less high pressure showing up the northeast and the storm was more negatively tilted and slower.....but all of that has changed to a degree in the past 48-60 hours. Now it's pretty run-of-the-mill for warm sectoring....lots of sheltered places in NNE prob won't spend more than a few hours above 40-45F.

The heavy rain will suck for ski slopes, but at least they won't lose a ton of base like in 2020.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 hours ago, DJln491 said:

All that snow AND their football team doesn't throw last second laterals to piss away the game, when the game was tied.

They have their own history of pathetic football events... but right now they are good

[MJO812]

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, ariof said:

2020 was a mega-grinch.

To cherry-pick some 2020 stats: a station near Quebec City was >40 for 20 hours (may stay below 40 this entire storm). Middlebury Snow Bowl was >40 for 36 hours and >45 for 31 of those, peaking around 56. This time should be 6 above 40 and maybe 0 above 45 at the Snow Bowl. Once the CAD dam broke at BML, it spent 42 hours above 40 and then only slowly fell back to freezing. Of course, the models undersold that a few days out, but there was no arctic blast behind it. 

Of course the grinch to end all grinches may have been in 2015. RUT had one reading below 30 over the course of the week with a high of 70; friends celebrating Christmas south of there in Vermont said "normally we go skating on the pond but this year we went swimming." At least 2015 didn't melt 4' of snow which had fallen a year before. Given the density of the current pack, some rain at 40 degrees might just soak in and once it freezes, it will freeze real solid.

So I guess it could be worse?

 

Van Buren, along the St. John River in Northern Maine, had 57/47 that day, 41° AN.  The County didn't get the deluge of farther south, generally <1/2".  Only reached 54 at my place but had 2.6" RA during the warmest part of the storm.  That day had a greater AN departure at our place than any other day on our 24+ years here, 1° more than March 22, 2012, the summer-in-March time.

[ariof]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is nothing like 2020 in terms of pack-destroying ability. It maybe had potential to be when there was much less high pressure showing up the northeast and the storm was more negatively tilted and slower.....but all of that has changed to a degree in the past 48-60 hours. Now it's pretty run-of-the-mill for warm sectoring....lots of sheltered places in NNE prob won't spend more than a few hours above 40-45F.

The heavy rain will suck for ski slopes, but at least they won't lose a ton of base like in 2020.

The ski slopes will turn to sheer ice, most likely, which is expected for New England.

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya I mean honestly that Buffalo AFD deserved a ton of weenies to me 

Looks great at 5H , maybe buffalo sees 12-18 of Lake effect 

Remember the great event of 1976, which crippled Buffalo.  Only 4" fell, but the hurricane force gusts and plunging temps did the damage (drifting off Lake Erie helped too).  12"-18" will be insane in this case.  But south of the city looks to get more....a lot more.

[CoastalWx]

NAM starting the Berks into VT and NH (likely eventually ME) as snow.