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New England Met Winter 2022-2023 Banter


HoarfrostHubb
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I think there is a case to be made the banking stress / panic amongst Large depositors at smaller and regional banks  (well above FDIC coverage limits ) will be a clear catalyst for economic pain coming related to the commercial real estate sector , large developers and small business owners 

Janet Yellen yesterday tanked the stock market when she commented that they are not considering raising the limit on depositor funds that the FDIC will cover if there is a bank run on deposits (on smaller and regional banks) **these banks have seen tremendous outflows of wealthy individuals (depositors $ with well over the 250K fdic insurance limit ) To the tune of several billion dollars . Regional banks had used these deposits to FUND new Lending . Regional banks loans lend hugely to the commercial real estate industry and to small businesses. Across the board loan officers at these banks , are losing deposits and on the defensive ..curtailing new loans and hording deposits . Unless outflows can be reversed and the *threat of continued outflows calmed * this is going to have a very significant effect on those industries and folks dependent On new regional banks Loans and will also encourage a further consolidation of the banking sector and a heavy drag on new construction 
 

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/03/15/banks-pull-back-on-commercial-real-estate-lending.html


also Rick Reider (excellent) touches on this after 2:10

 

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Large depositors who don’t run sweep operations deserve to lose money. Amazing how common this was at SVB. If the Fed government is going to backstop more deposits, they should require large depositors to pay an insurance premium to the FDIC. That or banks could start paying a competitive interest rate on deposits to keep money from fleeing to t-bills. 

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Good article about how corporate greed and collusion Across multiple industries is driving inflation (not wages) and basically using people’s ignorance (helped by regulators / politicians and media simply Not reporting it LMAO) . Margin expansion in food and energy profits during a time of Increased input costs to companies speaks greatly to their ability to price gauge items that are necessities (food and energy) so much that even thou the companies costs are rising they have had the “pricing power” to record record profits (very hard to do ) . Just simply raise the prices much higher than inflation justifies and count on the public having busy lives , no awareness that large protests would motivate governments to actually regulate the price gouging and basically all possible because the corporate news outlets simply don’t report it (raise awareness ) and politicians simply don’t protect consumers (they like watching their stock portfolio benefit) . It’s just people going hungry and cold , for all the woke SJW millennials it’s too bad they take their cues from large corporations pretending to care More about diversity (than they do)  or carbon footprint (to virtue signal and profit from more expensive alternatives  ) Instead of actually uncovering something genuine that would change things for the better of awareness was raised 

https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/12/global-greedflation-big-firms-drive-shopping-bills-to-record-highs

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28 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Good article about how corporate greed and collusion Across multiple industries is driving inflation (not wages) and basically using people’s ignorance (helped by regulators / politicians and media simply Not reporting it LMAO) . Margin expansion in food and energy profits during a time of Increased input costs to companies speaks greatly to their ability to price gauge items that are necessities (food and energy) so much that even thou the companies costs are rising they have had the “pricing power” to record record profits (very hard to do ) . Just simply raise the prices much higher than inflation justifies and count on the public having busy lives , no awareness that large protests would motivate governments to actually regulate the price gouging and basically all possible because the corporate news outlets simply don’t report it (raise awareness ) and politicians simply don’t protect consumers (they like watching their stock portfolio benefit) . It’s just people going hungry and cold , for all the woke SJW millennials it’s too bad they take their cues from large corporations pretending to care More about diversity (than they do)  or carbon footprint (to virtue signal and profit from more expensive alternatives  ) Instead of actually uncovering something genuine that would change things for the better of awareness was raised 

https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/12/global-greedflation-big-firms-drive-shopping-bills-to-record-highs

Can governments truly, successfully regulate price gouging though?  I think this would be a tall order, and tough to prove in many instances. Plus such an ambitious venture would more than likely require hiring of people to do this work.  

Last night Melina and I were having a conversation about people who make the rules in different arenas...school administrators, CEO's, government officials, lawmakers, etc.  It may sound cynical but I truly believe it is nearly impossible to find someone at the top...the person (people) who makes the ultimate call on rules, regulations, etc. who is not looking out for their own best interests...to cover their own a.ss, and ultimately look out for their own future.  Some people may go into politics with the initial thought of doing what's right, rise to the top with interests beyond themselves, but over time the lure of personal welfare, and self interest, and / or greed takes hold.   It's human nature and hard to change in most.

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52 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Can governments truly, successfully regulate price gouging though?  I think this would be a tall order, and tough to prove in many instances. Plus such an ambitious venture would more than likely require hiring of people to do this work.  

Last night Melina and I were having a conversation about people who make the rules in different arenas...school administrators, CEO's, government officials, lawmakers, etc.  It may sound cynical but I truly believe it is nearly impossible to find someone at the top...the person (people) who makes the ultimate call on rules, regulations, etc. who is not looking out for their own best interests...to cover their own a.ss, and ultimately look out for their own future.  Some people may go into politics with the initial thought of doing what's right, rise to the top with interests beyond themselves, but over time the lure of personal welfare, and self interest, and / or greed takes hold.   It's human nature and hard to change in most.

You can simply have politicians and news agency’s report This large contributor to inflation , to raise awareness . People respond to the news cycle and often act how they think will be viewed favorably. I don’t know that corporate greed is in most people’s decision set if you asked them why they were paying so much more for some items . If it was ..anger toward corporates would be all over social media . 

When people are mad , they organize and protest , look at France right now . That either puts  tremendous political pressure on Corporates (who are trying to make as much money as they can , that’s not their fault) , it’s just that the media and regulators make it so damn easy because They do nothing / say nothing

people don’t even have *corporate greed* in their decision set as to why they are paying more for food and energy . They think it’s simply “supply and demand “ and they will waive their hand and bend over no matter what the prices get to.

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You can simply have politicians and news agency’s report This large contributor to inflation , to raise awareness . People respond to the news cycle and often act how they think will be viewed favorably. I don’t know that corporate greed is in most people’s decision set if you asked them why they were paying so much more for some items . If it was ..anger toward corporates would be all over social media . 

When people are mad , they organize and protest , look at France right now . That either puts  tremendous political pressure on Corporates (who are trying to make as much money as they can , that’s not their fault) , it’s just that the media and regulators make it so damn easy because They do nothing / say nothing

people don’t even have *corporate greed* in their decision set as to why they are paying more for food and energy . They think it’s simply “supply and demand “ and they will waive their hand and bend over no matter what the prices get to.

Firms have a fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders to engage in profit-maximizing behavior. If the consumer is not particularly price-elastic, then the firm should raise prices to increase revenue. Firms are not engaging in any kind of collusion, they're simply taking signals from the market. Trust me, pricing hikes backfire all the time... Right now, my company has far greater pricing power in the US than we do in the EU, for example. Is that because the American consumer is healthier, the EU consumer smarter, or something else? Who knows (well, we have theories). Nonetheless, our pricing strategy is planned accordingly.

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great post.  nothing will ever change until people stop seeing the opposite of whatever political side they're on as the enemy.  The "system" is designed to keep that divide entrenched and people are generally too distracted/dumb to see it.  change will happen when people direct their struggle-fueled anger at the right places/people and make them very uncomfortable.  until then, they'll continue to spit in your face, smile, and tell you to deal.

2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You can simply have politicians and news agency’s report This large contributor to inflation , to raise awareness . People respond to the news cycle and often act how they think will be viewed favorably. I don’t know that corporate greed is in most people’s decision set if you asked them why they were paying so much more for some items . If it was ..anger toward corporates would be all over social media . 

When people are mad , they organize and protest , look at France right now . That either puts  tremendous political pressure on Corporates (who are trying to make as much money as they can , that’s not their fault) , it’s just that the media and regulators make it so damn easy because They do nothing / say nothing

people don’t even have *corporate greed* in their decision set as to why they are paying more for food and energy . They think it’s simply “supply and demand “ and they will waive their hand and bend over no matter what the prices get to.

 

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1 hour ago, bch2014 said:

Firms have a fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders to engage in profit-maximizing behavior. If the consumer is not particularly price-elastic, then the firm should raise prices to increase revenue. Firms are not engaging in any kind of collusion, they're simply taking signals from the market. Trust me, pricing hikes backfire all the time... Right now, my company has far greater pricing power in the US than we do in the EU, for example. Is that because the American consumer is healthier, the EU consumer smarter, or something else? Who knows (well, we have theories). Nonetheless, our pricing strategy is planned accordingly.

I understand folks believe that maximizing profits thru all Legal avenues , including if you have lobbyists creating loop holes in Congress Or writing opinion forming pieces in media is just ...it is what capitalism is about . It’s just unfortunate that nobody has the consumers back that should when it comes to prices for necessities  . When it comes to food and energy (necessity’s ) there should be more consumer protections . 

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18 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I understand folks believe that maximizing profits thru all Legal avenues , including if you have lobbyists creating loop holes in Congress Or writing opinion forming pieces in media is just ...it is what capitalism is about . It’s just unfortunate that nobody has the consumers back that should when it comes to prices for necessities  . When it comes to food and energy (necessity’s ) there should be more consumer protections . 

Food as a percentage of income, even after the inflation of the past three years, is far lower than in the past. 

https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/gallery/chart-detail/?chartId=100002#:~:text=Average share of income spent,had shrunk to 9.5 percent.

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4 hours ago, bch2014 said:

Food as a percentage of income, even after the inflation of the past three years, is far lower than in the past. 

https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/gallery/chart-detail/?chartId=100002#:~:text=Average share of income spent,had shrunk to 9.5 percent.

Tone doesn’t come over well on the internet and I’m not trying to be rude here , it’s more just frustrating

I mean I’m not sure if you were putting me on or serious . A helpful hint , read your own link , starting with the graph title where the data ends in 2019 . If it didn’t ring 5 bells in your head (that it makes no sense that food as a percentage of income would be lower ) than you really shouldn’t be posting on the matter . If it did you would have looked at your link and re-read it . 
 

A moron may read you link and say “ohhh ya well I guess it’s not that high “ . Your data is thru 2019 . Do you not realize the incredibly high food price inflation occurred in 2021-2022-2023 . The corporates successfully navigated it by rising prices significantly higher than their input costs rose and the consumer is well ...not brilliant .  

Data from 2021 consumptions show People spent 10% more on food as a% of their disposable income then the year prior . You can tack on another 6-10% when 2022 data comes out as price rises in 22’ were comparable to 21’ , thou at some point many people (after switching to off label brands ) just don’t have the money and simply buy less food to keep up with the price hikes and their % of disposable income spent toward food plateaus as they can’t allocate more because their energy and shelter bills increased as well 

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25 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Tone doesn’t come over well on the internet and I’m not trying to be rude here , it’s more just frustrating

I mean I’m not sure if you were putting me on or serious . A helpful hint , read your own link , starting with the graph title where the data ends in 2019 . If it didn’t ring 5 bells in your head (that it makes no sense that food as a percentage of income would be lower ) than you really shouldn’t be posting on the matter . If it did you would have looked at your link and re-read it . 
 

A moron may read you link and say “ohhh ya well I guess it’s not that high “ . Your data is thru 2019 . Do you not realize the incredibly high food price inflation occurred in 2021-2022-2023 . The corporates successfully navigated it by rising prices significantly higher than their input costs rose and the consumer is well ...not brilliant .  

Data from 2021 consumptions show People spent 10% more on food as a% of their disposable income than the year prior . You can tack on another 6-10% when 2022 data comes out as price rises in 22’ were comparable to 21’ , thou at some point many people (after switching to off label brands ) just don’t have the money and simply buy less food to keep up with the price hikes and their % of disposable income spent toward food plateaus as they can’t allocate more because their energy and shelter bills increased as well 

I agree with you that there is food price inflation. But we’ve also had nominal wage growth since 2019. So you can’t just say “food prices are up, end of story.” Is food probably 200-300bps more as a % of income than it was in 2019, yes, I’m with you. But it’s still way below the supposed “glory days” of the American middle class. 

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16 hours ago, bch2014 said:

I agree with you that there is food price inflation. But we’ve also had nominal wage growth since 2019. So you can’t just say “food prices are up, end of story.” Is food probably 200-300bps more as a % of income than it was in 2019, yes, I’m with you. But it’s still way below the supposed “glory days” of the American middle class. 

Many other things are up though.  Rents, energy costs etc so any cost increase in food is felt more easily.

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2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Many other things are up though.  Rents, energy costs etc so any cost increase in food is felt more easily.

How about with every percent that food increases in price, the government removes subsidies for oil companies and if they decide to throw it back on the consumer, then fine them to cover the cost. When you dig deep enough, food prices have skyrocketed due to fuel costs. These oil companies continue to rake in record profits while the average consumer takes the hit and has to decide on food for their kids or rent. There is no reason why, in this country we should have people needing to cut basic needs. It is ridiculous the lack of actual affordable living around here, 1 bdroom pushing 2 grand, and even those are hard to find. I have 4 kids and am fortunate that I don't have to make these almost impossible decisions, but I grew up in the being in this position and feel for all of those who do. This is where the government needs to stand up for the people of the United States and not their lobbied pockets....Estimates are between 10 and 50 billion in subsidies for fossil fuels alone (seems to be tough to track with all of the tax loop holes). 

No one likes the idea of tent cities popping up all over the country, but no one wants to actually fix the problem that is leading to them in the first place....

 

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47 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

How about with every percent that food increases in price, the government removes subsidies for oil companies and if they decide to throw it back on the consumer, then fine them to cover the cost. When you dig deep enough, food prices have skyrocketed due to fuel costs. These oil companies continue to rake in record profits while the average consumer takes the hit and has to decide on food for their kids or rent. There is no reason why, in this country we should have people needing to cut basic needs. It is ridiculous the lack of actual affordable living around here, 1 bdroom pushing 2 grand, and even those are hard to find. I have 4 kids and am fortunate that I don't have to make these almost impossible decisions, but I grew up in the being in this position and feel for all of those who do. This is where the government needs to stand up for the people of the United States and not their lobbied pockets....Estimates are between 10 and 50 billion in subsidies for fossil fuels alone (seems to be tough to track with all of the tax loop holes). 

No one likes the idea of tent cities popping up all over the country, but no one wants to actually fix the problem that is leading to them in the first place....

 

There’s a large housing shortage. That’s the biggest culprit on rents/shelter. We’ve become a pretty big NIMBY society…esp in more affluent areas. It’s not as bad here as it is in, say, California…but it’s important to not fall further into the red when it comes to housing unit supply. Super low mortgage rates have masked some of the price increases keeping monthly payments more affordable, but it’s hard to enter the market in the first place with those big down payments needed…and renters have really felt the pinch recently. With fewer new buyers entering the market than previously, you crowd the renting market more driving those prices up. 
 

19 hours ago, bch2014 said:

I agree with you that there is food price inflation. But we’ve also had nominal wage growth since 2019. So you can’t just say “food prices are up, end of story.” Is food probably 200-300bps more as a % of income than it was in 2019, yes, I’m with you. But it’s still way below the supposed “glory days” of the American middle class. 

Back in the day in the post-WWII middle 20th century , most households spent around 25% of their disposable income on food. 2021 ticked up from pre-Covid, but it was still only around 11%. 

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