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December 2022 Obs/Disc


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9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The party starts late Dec for most. Until then, a random gtg or two for the interior. 

For anything big based on what the models are saying I agree it’s mid Dec at the earliest, more likely we wait until week 3 of December if not the last week. In March 2018, the blocking established itself in early March, but didn’t get clobbered by a massive blizzard until mid month (there was a big interior storm a week before, but the areas closer to the coast kinda got screwed). I’m expecting a similar progression, the first storm likely won’t be a snowy one, then we get a big interior storm where the coast gets screwed a bit, then mid to late month we get a monster blizzard for all of SNE.

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5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Well, at least the relaxation part of the pattern change looks to over produce from sne to Maine 

Cold and dry with that block, But that doesn't mean we can't get something to pop out of this, But that's something that i don't think is determined at long lead times.

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not gonna lie....it's like a parallel universe in here sometimes. 

Folks will take any modeled snow at this point lol.  The guys at NCEP know it and make sure entire 16 day runs go by without dropping even a tenth of an inch of snow on the populous.

All joking aside there is some dark humor in the “pattern finally goes cold and everything suppresses” type outcome deterministically.

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I thought today’s GEFS look decent.  Seems to offer multiple chances moving forward.

I do think it will get cold, but probably limited chances until it relaxes a tad. You never know though....a clipper or what have you can always squeeze in earlier. 

 

I think people assumed a switch is turned and it snows immediately. It typically does not work that way. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I do think it will get cold, but probably limited chances until it relaxes a tad. You never know though....a clipper or what have you can always squeeze in earlier. 

 

I think people assumed a switch is turned and it snows immediately. It typically does not work that way. 

I like that split flow look with the block keeping things under us on the long range GEFS.    GEPS was much warmer.   Pretty snowy look to me by mid month.

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14 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Has the MA ever been snow wise ground zero in a nina?   Maybe 1995-96 but that was widespread wealth.

I’m not sure, but if so I would think it would be a Nina much weaker than this one. I’m curious as well, I think some of the mets here have that data though. 

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

No pattern change to see here

 

image.png.f8140d9306e44853f1433390dc8180e7.png

Mowvember ends on the 25th…? Why do that if most of us threaten 60 again on the 30th? 
 

Cutting calendars for the snow weenies. I guess I’d feel desperately apologetic too, if i lead them off a forecast cliff. Especially when it was done in class @ORH_wxmanfasion—by cutting and pasting model output past 240 hrs.

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Mowvember ends on the 25th…? Why do that if most of us threaten 60 again on the 30th? 
 

Cutting calendars for the snow weenies. I guess I’d feel desperately apologetic too, if i lead them off a forecast cliff. Especially when it was done in class @ORH_wxmanfasion—by cutting and pasting model output past 240 hrs.

Asperita Santus una Padre Santus...All of you wops getta offa my lawn.

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3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Mowvember ends on the 25th…? Why do that if most of us threaten 60 again on the 30th? 
 

Cutting calendars for the snow weenies. I guess I’d feel desperately apologetic too, if i lead them off a forecast cliff. Especially when it was done in class @ORH_wxmanfasion—by cutting and pasting model output past 240 hrs.

Only in the Vatican is 12 days of AOB average temps after record warmth the first 10 days of the month is considered no pattern change.

 

popefalling.thumb.jpg.30a189f231e25d631d2c25476e57438c.jpg

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12 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Mowvember ends on the 25th…? Why do that if most of us threaten 60 again on the 30th? 
 

Cutting calendars for the snow weenies. I guess I’d feel desperately apologetic too, if i lead them off a forecast cliff. Especially when it was done in class @ORH_wxmanfasion—by cutting and pasting model output past 240 hrs.

You’re unhinged. Too much wine and not enough trips to the confessional. Get it together, and fast.

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