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Heavy frost this morning with an overnight low of 32.  Really has been a nice Autumn so far for this forum.  Since the switch was flipped around the time of the Equinox weather has been fitting of the season for a change.  Going to warm up next 2 weeks but it sure has been nice so far.  At least in my opinion.  Leaves are beautiful and right about peak up this way.

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2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Down to 32 here last night and on the way to 56 or so.  Gradual warm up starts Thu (10/20) with a much warmer Fri / Sat (10/22) where some areas will touch 70.  Ridge in the east but undercut by low backing into the Northeast by Sunday night with clouds Sunday and some showers / rain Mon (10/24) and Tue (10/25).  If we clear Wed (10/26) another shot at 70s before a brief cool down in the Thu (10/27) .  Looks warm to end the month in time for Halloween with te next front coming in around the start of the month.

 

 

Tony, got an early call for November?

 

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1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

34 here as well. Some frost on the cars, but the vegetable plants in the garden are fine. Shouldn't be any worse tonight and then we go into an extended warmer pattern, so the growing season should continue into early november. Very happy about that.

39 out here and happy about the growing season continuing as well. Fingers crossed for tonight but I don’t think we’ll freeze based on how we did last night. A light frost shouldn’t bother the established plants too much. 

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39 out here and happy about the growing season continuing as well. Fingers crossed for tonight but I don’t think we’ll freeze based on how we did last night. A light frost shouldn’t bother the established plants too much. 

I have an extensive tropical garden here on campus on the uws and everything is fine. I’m talking actual tropical plants too. I was a little worried the low dews and wind might bother them but we should go deep into November before I dig them up and pot them and give them out to professors for their offices over the winter. I’ll call it adopt a plant.


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Today was another unseasonably cool day. The temperature was again confined to the 50s.

Parts of the East saw record cold. Records included:

Baton Rouge: 34° (old record: 36°, 1948)
Charleston: 37° (old record: 39°, 1948)
Jacksonville: 42° (old record: 43°, 1981 and 2009)
Little Rock: 33° (tied record set in 1989)
Savannah: 38° (old record: 40°, 2009)

Tomorrow will be another chilly day following a frosty start in many suburban areas with temperatures peaking in the 50s. A few areas will reach or exceed 60°.  Moderation is possible during the weekend. However, there will be a risk of precipitation.

Afterward, with the MJO in Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to go positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +7.93 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.298 today.

On October 17 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.404 (RMM). The October 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.456 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.8° (1.3° below normal).

 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly cloudy and a bit milder. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 58°

Newark: 60°

Philadelphia: 61°

Tomorrow will be somewhat milder.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 62.9°; 15-Year: 63.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 64.4°; 15-Year: 65.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 65.6°; 15-Year: 66.1°

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The next 8 days are averaging  58degs.(53/63) or +3.

Month to date is  57.0[-3.1].        Should be  57.3[-1.3] by the 28th.

Reached 56 here yesterday.

Today:  57-61, wind w.-breezy, m. clear, 48 tomorrow AM.

45*(71%RH) at 7am.      47* at 8am.    50* at 10am.      53* at Noon.      55* at 1pm.    58* at 3pm.     60* at 4pm.       Reached 61* at 5pm.

Not much cold to look forward to here:

1666267200-qReNw5SRpcg.png

 

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