LibertyBell Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 48 minutes ago, gravitylover said: I dunno, while it has been wetter than the past few months it won't even make a dent. I'm under .5 in the last week and down over 12" this year. It only looks green here, dig down 6" and it's dusty dry. Yes there's been a sharp cutoff up by you guys. Meanwhile the heavy rain has made it all the way back to NEPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 3 hours ago, bluewave said: The big question is how long this cooler October +PNA pattern can last? We haven’t had a colder October since the modoki El Niño in 2009. So it will be interesting to see if the North Pacific warm pool can continue the more Nino-like pattern or the milder La Niña eventually returns. Newark October temperature departures 2021…..+6.9 2020….+1.5 2019…..+3.8 2018…..+0.8 2017…..+7.2 2016…+2.3 2015….+0.6 2014….+2.7 2013….+3.0 2012…..+2.2 2011……+1.5 2010……+1.9 2009…..-0.8 Wasn't the tropical season also more reminiscent of an El Nino pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Good to see those 3.00” totals near the South Shore since Sunday. But Central NJ gets another jackpot. Some spots recorded 10.00”+. NJ-OC-105 Barnegat Twp 2.6 ESE Lat: 39.7553762321453 Lon: -74.230699170895 * indicates Multi-Day Accumulation Report Station NJ-OC-105 Date Precip in. 10/01/2022 1.27 10/02/2022 0.73 10/03/2022 5.90 10/04/2022 2.30 Totals : 10.20 in. Will they post a final map tomorrow night when the rain ends? I'd really like to see both the final rainfall totals and the highest wind gusts recorded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 2 hours ago, nyrangers1022 said: Another trash day. Gloomy, wet, depressing. Give me the sun Sun is coming out on Thursday and then probably not going away for over a week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: It did that here once we got the rains post Labor day... Yeah my neighbors who have grass got all greened up back in September. You don't need that much rain to do that, an inch is enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 Just got a random rumble of thunder here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 3 hours ago, SACRUS said: 34 more hours to go. About 86 inches of rain here, 4.17 total (so far) since Friday night. Clouds holding tough, plane ticket to Palm Springs in hand. Sun pokes through in time for sunset Wed, not so sure anymore. Mets triple header Thursday? Sunnier , drier and warmer Thu (10/6) and Fri (10/7) before front (looks dry) comes through for the weekend. Inland / burbs 30s Sat night / Sun night. Moderate by Tue (10/11) or Wed (10/12) and remaining overall dry through then. We'll see if the PNW Ridge pushes east for the second half of the month for a warmer note. I think they'll get the Mets games in today. Radar looks much better now. The steady rain is moving away and it looks as if it will just be occasional showers the rest of today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 4 hours ago, SACRUS said: 34 more hours to go. About 86 inches of rain here, 4.17 total (so far) since Friday night. Clouds holding tough, plane ticket to Palm Springs in hand. Sun pokes through in time for sunset Wed, not so sure anymore. Mets triple header Thursday? Sunnier , drier and warmer Thu (10/6) and Fri (10/7) before front (looks dry) comes through for the weekend. Inland / burbs 30s Sat night / Sun night. Moderate by Tue (10/11) or Wed (10/12) and remaining overall dry through then. We'll see if the PNW Ridge pushes east for the second half of the month for a warmer note. I had to do a doubletake.... 86 inches of rain is a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 Some locations in the NYC Metro Region are getting some really soaking rains from the remnants/leftovers of Ian. But if my take is correct, we are still in a drier than normal overall weather pattern while above normal temperature pattern has shifted into a below normal temperature pattern. I don't think this current event necessarily means that the drought is over. Even if a few spots ended up with 3.00" of rain from this, if the next 8 weeks are very dry, we're very close to being back in the drought. We are lucky that we ended up in the right spot with Ian and the same luck is unlikely to happen again though not impossible. Most of the computer guidance having systems accelerating w-nw to e-se across the northern tier of the country with cold fronts one after another dropping down from Canada does not give me confidence in more sizable rain events after this one. We'll see if the tropics have more to say. WX/PT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 We all know that these maps are not perfect and it ignores Long Island but it still gives a good impression of how much precipitation is below normal since June. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 1.49 here so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 17 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: Some locations in the NYC Metro Region are getting some really soaking rains from the remnants/leftovers of Ian. But if my take is correct, we are still in a drier than normal overall weather pattern while above normal temperature pattern has shifted into a below normal temperature pattern. I don't think this current event necessarily means that the drought is over. Even if a few spots ended up with 3.00" of rain from this, if the next 8 weeks are very dry, we're very close to being back in the drought. We are lucky that we ended up in the right spot with Ian and the same luck is unlikely to happen again though not impossible. Most of the computer guidance having systems accelerating w-nw to e-se across the northern tier of the country with cold fronts one after another dropping down from Canada does not give me confidence in more sizable rain events after this one. We'll see if the tropics have more to say. WX/PT But Ian turned into Noreaster is exactly the type of storm you'd expect to get in October, so I would say it was more than just luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 Maybe another 1" coming. Clearing Wed. Nite, but some clouds come back on Thurs.-w/o the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 2 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: Some locations in the NYC Metro Region are getting some really soaking rains from the remnants/leftovers of Ian. But if my take is correct, we are still in a drier than normal overall weather pattern while above normal temperature pattern has shifted into a below normal temperature pattern. I don't think this current event necessarily means that the drought is over. Even if a few spots ended up with 3.00" of rain from this, if the next 8 weeks are very dry, we're very close to being back in the drought. We are lucky that we ended up in the right spot with Ian and the same luck is unlikely to happen again though not impossible. Most of the computer guidance having systems accelerating w-nw to e-se across the northern tier of the country with cold fronts one after another dropping down from Canada does not give me confidence in more sizable rain events after this one. We'll see if the tropics have more to say. WX/PT Yeah I agree, an El Nino pattern with an active southern jet this is not. I'd be willing to bet the default Nina state will also try to come back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 a late november day in the city coat gloves etc .. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 Has anyone posted the euro? Curious if it’s still showing higher totals for this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 12 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Has anyone posted the euro? Curious if it’s still showing higher totals for this evening Lol 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Lol Thx, I think. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 34 minutes ago, Rjay said: Lol Is this in addition to what we've already gotten?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 9 minutes ago, TriPol said: Is this in addition to what we've already gotten?? It’s the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 up to 2.59. meh compared to central nj 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 4, 2022 Author Share Posted October 4, 2022 Picked up 1.74" of rain so far today. Storm total so far 5.11" Current temp 53 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 1.38” current storm total. Winds have relaxed a bit so it feels mildly less terrible than it has felt for the last 4 days, sky brightening up at times but never fully clearing out. Currently 56 (and slowly rising) which is the high for the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 closed low coastals often overperform 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scootmandu Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 Between last night and today, we picked up .96." Hoping for another half inch to an inch, when all is said and done. Temp at high for the day at 55.8, with a DP of 54.7. The winds have slowly started to calm down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: up to 2.59. meh compared to central nj You called it; under perform on the front end, over perform on the back end... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 4.05 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 8 hours ago, Dark Star said: Doesn't take much to fill up the reservoirs. Sometimes one good event. Supposedly the real key are winter snows (Summer snows not as much). Reservoir levels are meaningless to my well and dead garden that didn't produce the food I planned for I'm in reservoir land here and I was 25" below average last winter. I was also about 8" shy on liquid precip too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 Today was another cloudy, rainy, and cool day. Newark received 1.61" of rain, which broke the daily record of 0.93" from 2006. It will remain unseasonably cool through tomorrow. Some additional rain or showers are likely. Afterward, a brief period of warmer readings will follow before another strong cold front crosses the region on Friday. All said, the first 10 days of October are on track to be much cooler than normal. The temperature will likely average 4°-6° below normal during the October 1-10 period. Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend on the state of blocking and the influence of the cool ENSO Region 1+2 region. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States. October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development raises the probability of a cooler exception this month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around September 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +32.81 today. The old daily record was +26.36, which was set in 2010. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.066 today. On October 2 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.929 (RMM). The October 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.822 (RMM). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 Storm total since 10/1 up to 2.63”. 1.94” of that has fallen today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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