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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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Just getting back home and finally getting a good look at Ian. IR doesn't always tell the story, but tonight we see numerous meaningful clues that after developing a structure earlier in the day, Ian is finally taking advantage of an increasingly favorable environment. 

From just a few hours ago, it was evident that Ian was starting to pick up the pace of organization with the development of spiral bands and hints of an inner core. 

pBiiHPm.jpg

With IR, we see multiple vortical towers trying to wrap around that core. The very intense convection itself probably has this near hurricane force if not already there. 

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611a5f35a0f6239278a63

Finally, I like taking a look at the Weathernerds WV to make sense of whats happening under the cloud tops. 

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611acb37c9a5cb769c12c

Much like the IR, you see how in recent hours the towers have gone up and tried wrapping around a developing core. I haven't had a chance to dive deep into long term track and impacts, but in the last few hours Ian has certainly put "meat on the bones" so to speak. This leads to the eye-like feature (we don't quite know until confirmed by recon) that @MattPetrulli posted earlier. 

G8P87OZ.png

Nothing earth shattering, but I expect recon to find Ian a hurricane tonight. Once there is a fully developed inner core, this one should be able to take off intensity wise. Dry air may have hindered the convective activity earlier, but this is a delayed but not denied situation IMO. 

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0Z UKMET shifts back SE to Port Charlotte area of FL (ignore the lowball strengths as they've been low on every run. I watch mainly for the track changes). So, UKMET is a pretty decent right outlier, something it isn't accustomed to as more often it is on the left:

 

 TROPICAL STORM IAN        ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N  80.7W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 26.09.2022    0  17.0N  80.7W     1000            34
    1200UTC 26.09.2022   12  18.9N  82.1W      997            38
    0000UTC 27.09.2022   24  20.8N  83.4W      994            39
    1200UTC 27.09.2022   36  22.8N  84.0W      994            45
    0000UTC 28.09.2022   48  24.2N  83.6W      992            46
    1200UTC 28.09.2022   60  25.8N  83.2W      989            54
    0000UTC 29.09.2022   72  26.8N  82.5W      990            51
    1200UTC 29.09.2022   84  27.2N  82.1W      993            49
    0000UTC 30.09.2022   96  28.3N  81.8W      993            47
    1200UTC 30.09.2022  108  29.5N  81.3W      995            41
    0000UTC 01.10.2022  120  29.8N  81.8W      996            34
    1200UTC 01.10.2022  132  31.9N  80.8W      998            32
    0000UTC 02.10.2022  144  34.8N  79.8W      999            29
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Indeed we are seeing structure improvements and the pressure is steady now with minor pressure falls. Remember though, there is a lag between us seeing structure changes and the pressure actually tanking. By 5am we should see another significant pressure drop. It takes a few hours for the pressure to respond. It all does not happen at one time

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  • Scott747 changed the title to Hurricane Ian

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