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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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1 minute ago, Hotair said:

2 and a half to be safe. Probably don’t want to evacuate under major lightning storms.  At least hillsborough schools have been cancelled now in preparation of storm shelters.  

Once this gets to a Major and if the track still is close to TB, 75N and I4 will be a parking lot by late afternoon Tuesday.

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2 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Hurricane Agnes was biggest surge we've had in about 100 years. Wind was a non-issue, rain was nothing memorable. But the 10ft Storm Surge across Tampa Bay was indeed something to remember.

That is a 10ft surge. We hear about 30 ft sometimes when we are in the cone of a big one.

Sections of road in my neighborhood in South Tampa become impassable by cars after a heavy rain fall lasting 20 minutes.  If you throw the Bay waters at us during hurricanes we will have many homes flooded.  I would love to see how the tide tables match up with the storm arrival. High tide could easily add 4+ feet to the surge 

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1 minute ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

To you guys who live in Tampa Bay, I wish you guys the best of luck with this storm and I hope you all fare better in the long term then what we are seeing.

I agree, if you aren’t 10-15 feet above sea level, I would find a place that is. 

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7 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Surge will be bad, but lets not under estimate the potential for a Cat 2-3 eyewall to be going through Tampa. They have great building codes but that would cause significant damage regardless.

Great.  And I wasn’t going to mention this but my neighbor had their policy non renewed by their ins co.  I found out yesterday he decided to sit on it until next year because he was convinced the Hurricane threat was done for the year.  ( his house is paid for). Now he can only buy insurance with a 15 day grace period meaning he is going commando into this storm.  
 

convective burst is much better organized now than earlier. I think we are going to start buzz sawing soon 

A2365B41-DCF5-4816-BFFF-431DA47DAB6B.jpeg

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14 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

990mb currently, that is a 15mb drop in 5 hours. Very certain we see hurricane force winds at the surface in the next several hours once convection gets going

FdiRY-NVEAAU5ho.png

This is similar to what Harvey, Delta, and Micheal did.   All had a sudden convective burst that dropped the pressure from about 1003mb to 990mb in a few hours.

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Just now, Amped said:

This is similar to what Harvey, Delta, and Micheal did.   All had a sudden convective burst that dropped the pressure from about 1003mb to 990mb in a few hours.

Exactly, which draws into perspective that Ian is deepening at a much faster rate than what was originally forecasted and shown by the models. This is going to be huge/detrimental to the forecast track so I expect further adjustments on the models tonight.

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Since 1921, Tampa has been hit by hurricanes from the Gulf in 1966, 1950, 1946, and 1935:

1. Tampa's last direct hit off the Gulf by a hurricane was way back in 1946. I don't know what the surge was at Tampa:

tracks-at-1946.png

 


2. Alma of 1966, which paralleled the FL w coast, produced wind gusts to 93 mph in the Tampa area. New Port Richey to the north had a storm tide of 10 feet. I don't know what Tampa had:

tracks-at-1966.png

 

3. Easy of 1950 produced a surge of 6.5 feet at Tampa Bay, the highest then since 1921 per Wikipedia. It just missed a direct hit on Tampa as it looped, but it still produced severe damage there:

tracks-at-1950.png

 

4. The 1935 hurricane passed just enough offshore Tampa to cause 75 mph winds and a storm surge of 5.3 feet:

 

tracks-at-1935.png

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3 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Best scenario for Tampa at this point would be for Ian to come ashore further south. Of course the downside of that is likely going to be a stronger storm at landfall. South of Tampa probably has a much higher risk of coming ashore as a major.

If that happens we just worry about a wind/rain event as all the water in Tampa Bay will be sucked out and pushed into Sarasota Bay or wherever.

 

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3 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Exactly, which draws into perspective that Ian is deepening at a much faster rate than what was originally forecasted and shown by the models. This is going to be huge/detrimental to the forecast track so I expect further adjustments on the models tonight.

The current location is exactly where the Euro had it dropping below 1000 mb for the first time across several ensemble members. Not sure why that would deviate current forecasts. 

Screenshot_20220925_191709.jpg

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  • Scott747 changed the title to Hurricane Ian

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