Superstorm93 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Hotair said: An eye could be forming ? 4:25 recon Look at IR. Just a bunch of warm convection sloshing around. We will likely have to wait until after sunset to get something going near the center. This one has certainly been an interesting case to show how delicate some of these weak systems can be to sneaky dry air and stability. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 GFS intensity forecast was not great. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Density ensembles show more error east possible than west. Appears current position riding right side of cone. Would think NHC may tweak right a hair if any changes at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Idk. I think the NHC forecast position is just about right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Euro had it strengthening later vs GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 I checked with NHC site to confirm TT, there is indeed a HH flying the Northeast while there is no plane in Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 the following models have Ian making landfall in Sarasota/St Pete/Tampa --ECMWF (Europe) --KMA (Korea) —JMA (Japan) --Icon (Germany) --Access-G (Australia) --UKMET Only the GFS(US) & CMC(Canada) have a landfall in the Big Bend to Panhandle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 10 minutes ago, Amped said: GFS intensity forecast was not great. Model that has been historically poor in the Caribbean continues to perform poorly in the Caribbean. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I checked with NHC site to confirm TT, there is indeed a HH flying the Northeast while there is no plane in Ian. Mission inbound from Florida now. Should hopefully give us some better insight as to how this system has faired throughout the course of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said: Mission inbound from Florida now. Should hopefully give us some better insight as to how this system has faired throughout the course of the day. Yep Andy Hazelton tweeted that he was on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 ...IAN EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS IN WESTERN CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 80.3W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge southward to Key West, including the Dry Tortugas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Cayman * Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge southward to Key West, including the Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 80.3 West. Ian is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a north-northwestward motion on Monday and a northward motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to pass near or west of the Cayman Islands on Monday, and near or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast tonight, followed by more rapid strengthening on Monday and Tuesday. Ian is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday and a major hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman on Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected early Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the lower Florida Keys by Tuesday. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall: Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches. Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches. Florida Keys into southern and central Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches beginning Monday through Wednesday morning. Heavy rainfall may affect North Florida, the Florida Panhandle and the Southeast Thursday, Friday and Saturday. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding are possible across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid week. Additional flooding and rises on area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts of the southeast U.S. later this week cannot be ruled out, especially in central Florida given already saturated conditions. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft Florida Keys, FL including Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Florida Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area Monday night and early Tuesday. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Monday and Monday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 000 WTNT44 KNHC 252057 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 The organization of Ian has not changed much since this morning. There have been some small bursts of convection closer to the center of the storm this afternoon, but the activity has not yet led to any notable changes in its structure. In fact, the most persistent convection has been in outer rainbands well to the northeast of the circulation near Jamaica. The SFMR wind data and adjusted flight-level winds from the earlier reconnaissance flights supported surface winds of 35-40 kt, and the initial intensity is set at 40 kt for this advisory. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Ian later tonight. The center of Ian has jogged a bit northward this afternoon, but its longer-term motion is west-northwestward at 300/10 kt. A generally northwestward motion is expected tonight, followed by a north-northwestward motion on Monday and early Tuesday as it moves across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and near or over western Cuba. From there, the track guidance still diverges at days 3-5 as Ian is forecast to move northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF and UKMET models still lie on the eastern edge of the guidance and bring the center of Ian over the coast of west-central Florida, while the HWRF and HMON models are on the western side of the envelope and show Ian approaching the central Florida panhandle. Notably, the GFS has trended slightly eastward for the past few cycles, which has brought the multi-model consensus aids a bit eastward as well. The latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted in this direction, but only on the order of 15-20 n mi in the extended range. Users are reminded not to focus on the details of the track forecast at longer time ranges, since uncertainty is still high and future adjustments may be required. Although the storm has yet to develop an inner core, the conditions over the northwestern Caribbean Sea appear very likely to support strengthening once it becomes better organized. Some dry environmental air may have limited convection today, but the GFS- and ECMWF-simulated satellite imagery indicate that deep convection will increase during the diurnal maximum period overnight. Then, significant strengthening is expected with low deep-layer shear and high oceanic heat content along the forecast track. There is still strong support for rapid intensification in the latest intensity guidance, and the NHC intensity forecast shows Ian becoming a hurricane on Monday and a major hurricane on Tuesday. This forecast remains close to the IVCN multi-model consensus, with some model aids including HCCA showing even higher peak intensities. Strong southwesterly shear develops over Ian by 72 h related to interaction with an upper-level trough, and the structure of the cyclone could significantly degrade before landfall given these hostile conditions. However, Ian is likely to have an expanding wind field and will be slowing down by that time, which will have the potential to produce significant wind and storm surge impacts across portions of the Florida west coast and the Florida panhandle. Key Messages: 1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through the middle of the week. Additional flooding on rivers across northern Florida and parts of the southeast U.S. cannot be ruled out later this week. 2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of western Cuba beginning late Monday, and Ian is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it is near western Cuba. Efforts to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 3. Ian is expected to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the middle of this week, but uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts remains higher than usual. Regardless of Ian’s exact track and intensity, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of this week, and residents in Florida should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. Follow any advice given by local officials and closely monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 16.2N 80.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 17.3N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 19.2N 82.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 21.1N 83.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 23.0N 84.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 24.8N 84.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 26.2N 84.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 28.3N 84.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 31.0N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Reinhart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hotair said: Significant shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Hotair said: A tad surprised the cone is not a bit more E on the right side there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Interesting they keep that NE trajectory longer term even with a H sliding off New England and models turning it NW after landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: A tad surprised the cone is not a bit more E on the right side there maybe they will adjust more east on the 11pm update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 So at 5pm it is nudged a little to the right by 15-20 miles. Peak intensity the same as 11am advisory and maybe a bit stronger as it nears landfall. Track will make big difference on intensity at landfall. If it hugs right side of cone stronger - hugs left side weaker. Gut feeling is another nudge or two eastward over the next few cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: A tad surprised the cone is not a bit more E on the right side there Same here but then again, they have most of the West Coast population centers covered with the cone as is. Perhaps they are waiting for a few more GFS runs to confirm the shift East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyes2theskies Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 I am confused why they didn’t shift further east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 ICON really clobbers Jacksonville. The Euro is pretty bad for them also. NE FL, GA and SC coast need to be ready for this also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 18z Icon almost bring Naples into LF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 12 minutes ago, MANDA said: So at 5pm it is nudged a little to the right by 15-20 miles. Peak intensity the same as 11am advisory and maybe a bit stronger as it nears landfall. Track will make big difference on intensity at landfall. If it hugs right side of cone stronger - hugs left side weaker. Gut feeling is another nudge or two eastward over the next few cycles. For Tampa Bay that is what we do not want to see. I'm working in my backyard, so many "things" out there in our oasis tropical paradise. Several years ago we did some paver work along our driveway and had a lot of leftover pavers we could have sent back. But for me I like a kid with big box of Leggo and built structures in my backyard for plants and decorations. But some of them are in the way of securing our windows and patio, so I am moving them to a different area. Just in case we need to scramble. My back is already starting to ache and I have a lot more to move... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 A strong convective burst has developed near and just west of the center. This is the strongest convection I can recall anytime recently near the center. With the increased organization today quite evident on the visible loop, we'll see whether or not this leads to significant strengthening by DMAX late tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Ian weakened instead of strengthening #2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 24 minutes ago, Amped said: ICON really clobbers Jacksonville. The Euro is pretty bad for them also. NE FL, GA and SC coast need to be ready for this also. Even though the rain isn't finished at the end of the run, one can see that the drier air is up through 120 hours holding back the extremely heavy amounts on the 18Z ICON to just offshore GA/far S SC vs the 12Z, which though a weaker storm had much heavier rainfall due to a further west track barely inland that allowed for less influence from the Canadian air. Hoping the center would stay just offshore to reduce the chance for extreme flooding in SE GA/far S SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 GFS already NE of 12z through 18 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 11 minutes ago, MANDA said: So at 5pm it is nudged a little to the right by 15-20 miles. Peak intensity the same as 11am advisory and maybe a bit stronger as it nears landfall. Track will make big difference on intensity at landfall. If it hugs right side of cone stronger - hugs left side weaker. Gut feeling is another nudge or two eastward over the next few cycles. For Tampa Bay that is what do not want to see. I'm working in my backyard, so many "things" out there in our oasis tropical paradise. Several years ago we did some paver work along our driveway and had a lot of leftover pavers we could have sent back. But for me I like a kid with big box of Leggo and built structures in my backyard for plants and decorations. But some of them are in the way of securing our windows and patio, so I am moving them to a different area. Just in case we need to scramble. My back is already starting to ache and I have a lot more to move... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Ian weakened instead of strengthening #2022 If you basing it on GFS then yes but Euro held off on the intensity until Jamaica 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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