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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

The mean is literally in the exact same position. Maybe 10 miles east. 

09L_gefs_12z.png

More ensembles on 18z going towards peninsula + showing the stall along with more W Florida landfalls. Just off the pure eye. The mean itself may be deviated by the members which go in west of PC, which probably won't happen. 

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3 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Anyone have stats on the last direct hurricane impacts to Tampa? I know 1921 was the last direct major strike, but what was the last Cat 1 or 2?

Tropical Storm Josephine in 1996. Would have probably been classified a hurricane by todays standards. 

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12 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

It does have a lot more members TPA south and reintroduced Ft Myers. But it also added California evidently. 

TPA already closing schools Tuesday and Wednesday and talking about evacuations for certain areas starting late tomorrow 

Favoring that Euro track 

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Looking at the environment ahead of Ian tonight, besides the lack of dry air and windshear the OHC is very high ahead of this system. Also, something to note here, there are a few warm eddies ahead of Ian so its very possible this anticipated RI process could lean towards an "explosive intensification" process once Ian gets an established CDO and eye. Its also now following the tail end of the loop current so we should start to see remarkable/appreciable structure changes soon.

ohc_naQG3_ddc.gif

90.png

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30 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

It was pretty shocking to experience as most here had their guard down after escaping the worst of Irma.  Also a good reminder that a lower end TC with lots of stacked energy can be extremely impactful here.

And then Elsa underperformed the storm surge warnings a season later, even though it was at hurricane status closer to Tampa. So the size of the wind field and lead time fetch matter a lot for storm surge height, especially in the GOM. 

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  • Scott747 changed the title to Hurricane Ian

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