Hurricane Ian

[MattPetrulli]

Eyewall has turned into a supercell like structure. Pretty cool, wonder what's going on with that.

[cptcatz]

40 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Unfortunately once over land recon can't fly into Ian so they use satellite estimates and models that estimate weakening so is it perfect? No. Could Ian be weaker than this? Yes. But is it still a powerful and dangerous hurricane? Definitely. That nw eyewall is still pounding many cities with high end winds and extreme flooding rain. 

I think what he's trying to say is that right now (as of 10pm), the NHC is saying that this storm is producing surface level sustained winds of 100 mph somewhere.  You don't need recon planes or satellites or models to tell us that.  The storm is well inland in a populated area.  If the storm is actually producing 100 mph sustained winds, we would know.  But it's not.  So what is the NHC telling us?  That if this same storm were over open water then it would be producing 100 mph winds?  What good is that?  Why not just use actual surface wind measurements to tell us what the storm is currently doing?

[TPAwx]

On the "fringe" of Ian has meant TS+ winds since afternoon and sideways rain for 4 hours and much more to come.  No power at home in Tampa, so going to hold off on returning.

[Floydbuster]

Looks like DeSoto City is next up, then what is left of the eye will head generally towards Melbourne. 

[StormChaser4Life]

10 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

I think what he's trying to say is that right now (as of 10pm), the NHC is saying that this storm is producing surface level sustained winds of 100 mph somewhere.  You don't need recon planes or satellites or models to tell us that.  The storm is well inland in a populated area.  If the storm is actually producing 100 mph sustained winds, we would know.  But it's not.  So what is the NHC telling us?  That if this same storm were over open water then it would be producing 100 mph winds?  What good is that?  Why not just use actual surface wind measurements to tell us what the storm is currently doing?

I understood what he was trying to say and still stand behind my explanation. I think the NHC knows what they're doing 

[beavis1729]

34 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

I think what he's trying to say is that right now (as of 10pm), the NHC is saying that this storm is producing surface level sustained winds of 100 mph somewhere.  You don't need recon planes or satellites or models to tell us that.  The storm is well inland in a populated area.  If the storm is actually producing 100 mph sustained winds, we would know.  But it's not.  So what is the NHC telling us?  That if this same storm were over open water then it would be producing 100 mph winds?  What good is that?  Why not just use actual surface wind measurements to tell us what the storm is currently doing?

When NHC says “max sustained winds of 105 mph”, that could be based on extrapolation or other estimates…as there may not be reliable surface obs in the exact/tiny spot where the max sustained winds are occurring. 
 

Usually, the max sustained wind values are very localized in a hurricane. Most areas “near” the eye wall (and even this covers a small geographic area) are probably 70-90 mph. The max of 105 mph could be a very tiny surface area on the ground (and therefore likely missed by obs)…but could still technically be correct because of the word “max”…even as it’s actually not experienced by a lot of people. 
 

The exact words are very important here. I agree there could probably be more accurate and meaningful ways of communicating the areas of higher sustained winds for a hurricane…but people are drawn to the “max” because it’s sexier. 
 

Just my two cents. 

[GaWx]

51 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

10:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 28
Location: 27.4°N 81.5°W
Moving: NNE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 968 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

The NHC does a fantastic job overall. Their forecast verifications speak for themselves. However, I am wondering why they are saying that it has been moving NNE for the last 6 hours when it has been a straight NE move each hour since 4 PM. It has moved from 26.8 N, 82.1 W, then to 27.4 N, 81.5 W at 10 PM.

[TradeWinds]

Our local mets explained why Orlando to Daytona is experiencing some of the highest winds this evening. Daytona had a 73 mph gust. The cold front is causing an intrusion of cold air. As the cold air sinks, it is efficient at bringing down the winds aloft. The rain is helping too. 

[Rhino16]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

26.8 N, 82.1 W, then to 27.4 N, 81.5 W at 10 PM.

Isn’t that exactly NE? I don’t get that either then. Are they basing it off of an earlier time maybe?

[Normandy]

As he has been his entire life, Ian is east of the track.  

[MattPetrulli]

Not really any change in new advisory, still think we can peak at 65-70 knots before a SC landfall Friday, NHC alludes to this in the discussion with favorable trough interaction. Also seeing sustained tropical force conditions in Orlando and other areas inland is pretty impressive imo

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: slightly west of 12Z near Georgetown, SC 

 HURRICANE IAN        ANALYSED POSITION : 27.1N  81.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 29.09.2022    0  27.1N  81.8W      973            49
    1200UTC 29.09.2022   12  28.2N  80.7W      989            46
    0000UTC 30.09.2022   24  29.6N  79.7W      984            55
    1200UTC 30.09.2022   36  31.4N  79.2W      978            55
    0000UTC 01.10.2022   48  34.3N  79.5W      987            37
    1200UTC 01.10.2022   60  35.7N  80.0W     1002            28
    0000UTC 02.10.2022   72              CEASED TRACKING

[MattPetrulli]

This thing is chugging right along, faster than I expected for the moment. Florida east coast may sustain damage similar to Hurricane Matthew, judging by extent of TS force wind field.


.

[TradeWinds]

Absolutely ripping in southern part of Orange County near MCO.

[Nibor]

Yo, check out that baby swirl at the low center. Just to bottom right of the stream of red echoes.

[Amped]

5 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Yo, check out that baby swirl at the low center. Just to bottom right of the stream of red echoes.

That is strange almost looks like a tornado but it's not 3 dimensional.

[Normandy]

Where can I get that radar image?  very neat

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, Normandy said:

Where can I get that radar image?  very neat

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=MLB-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Yo, check out that baby swirl at the low center. Just to bottom right of the stream of red echoes.

Now it is finally actually moving NNE.

[Nibor]

20 minutes ago, Amped said:

That is strange almost looks like a tornado but it's not 3 dimensional.

I think it looks kinda like a mini hurricane lol

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

I think it looks kinda like a mini hurricane lol

Looks like the literal hurricane icon, lol

[Modfan2]

[A-L-E-K]

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

Ian was downgraded to a TS with the 5 am update -

Looks like the buzz saw wants to fly off the coast, but slowly.

[hooralph]

Friend in New Smyrna Beach says her condo (which is not beach front) has feet of water around it. They are getting pounded. 14" and climbing.

[jacindc]

 

Sanibel is gonna be in baaad shape.

[nycsnow]

They’re saying fatalities in the hundreds in Lee county

[nycsnow]

 

[MJO812]

Fort Myers

[olafminesaw]

Largest TS force wind field at this latitude since Sandy? Could push some serious water into Savannah/charleston