Hurricane Ian

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just wanted to acknowledge how impressive the insight was throughout this thread during the evolution of this historic hurricane. I certainly learned a lot about intensity forecasting and undoubtedly much more to learn.

Here is my verification write up for those interested:

Hurricane Ian Verification Offers Mixed Results

Location and Timing of Landfall Forecast Nearly Flawless

Here is how landfall of one of the most historic hurricanes in the history of the US, Hurricane Ian, evolved:

 

 

 

 

Versus the Eastern Mass Weather Final Call, issued at roughly 730pm on Tuesday night:

 

 

Fort Myers, FL was correctly identified as the most severely impacted major population center. Clearly the timing and location of the forecast was exemplary, having effectively incorporated climatology to disregard the consensus of guidance in the Monday night issuance of First Call:

 

"Future Track of Ian Dependent Upon Interaction with Trough: Climo maybe the best Tool

The track forecast is high confidence until Ian makes it around the western periphery of the high pressure node that is currently steering it into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

It is at this point that it will being to turn towards the north and potentially even north northeast, as we approach mid week and it becomes under the influence of the northern periphery of the ridge and the base of a trough to the north.

The primary question then becomes will it lose enough longitude to reach the west coast of Florida, or will it remain off of the coast (and how far) until reaching the panhandle...there is simply no way to know for sure and educated guesses will rule the day.

Here is the guidance that will inform said "guesses":

Hurricane Track Guidance and Global Guidance

Note the cluster to the east, in the general vicinity of Tampa...

 

European Ensemble Suite

There is  similar cluster on the European suite, which has been admittedly biased to the east over the course of the past few days.

 

GFS Ensemble Suite:

A similar, albeit less defined trend is noted on the GFS suite, as the western mean seems to be pulled by a scattering of western outliers, as opposed to a concentrated cluster.

 

Canadian Ensemble Suite:

With such a stark dichotomy in forecast track, which is so crucial to intensity, as will be discussed momentarily, climatology may be the best guidance with respect to the future track of Hurricane Ian. And this is potentially grave news for the Tampa Bay metro area.

Here is a graphic courtesy of Matt Gross, which lists all of the major hurricane strikes between 1900 and 2010 throughout the state of Florida.

Note that the best guidance clustering is definitely within the eastern climo cluster, in the vicinity if Tampa. While it is too early to be confident, this is where the likelihood is highest at this point in time. All residents in this area should rush preparations to protect  life and property to completion over the next couple of days. Especially since it is this eastern track scenario that offers the most intense landfall potential."

While it was reasoned that the more eastern track offered a more intense scenario. as it turned out the forecast was not nearly  intense enough.

 

Landfall Intensity Forecast Left Much to be Desired

The logic all throughout the forecast period was that a more eastern track would result in a more intense hurricane strike.

 

 

But complicating matters was that interaction with the higher terrain of wester Cuba induced a premature Eye wall Replacement Cycle (EWRC) as it re emerged int the se Gulf of Mexico.

 

 

The forecast final forecast philosophy was that while the further south and east track would avoid much of the shear and dry air intrusion, these inhibiting factors would become just prevalent enough prior to landfall to retard the ability to the hurricane to fully recover from this EWRC. Thus it was not forecast to intensify significantly prior to landfall. However, Ian ended up recovering just about as proficiently and quickly as physically possible, and this coupled with the fact that its size allowed to be virtually impervious to the marginal mitigating factors allowed to take full advantage of some very high octane oceanic heat content. While this was alluded to as a possibility in the Final Call, it was not forecast.

 

"The one caveat that bares watching is that if Ian should complete the aforementioned EWRC and conditions are not prohibitive to intensification, the oceanic heat content is very high just off of the coast of Fort Myers, so the possibility of late intensification, though not forecast, can not be ruled out.

 

 

Thus the forecast intensity of 115mph was well short of the verified 150mph maximum sustained winds at landfall.

 

 

 

 

FINAL GRADE: C

Just WOW. What an EPIC writeup!

[Isopycnic]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just wanted to acknowledge how impressive the insight was throughout this thread during the evolution of this historic hurricane. I certainly learned a lot about intensity forecasting and undoubtedly much more to learn.

Here is my verification write up for those interested:

Hurricane Ian Verification Offers Mixed Results

Location and Timing of Landfall Forecast Nearly Flawless

Here is how landfall of one of the most historic hurricanes in the history of the US, Hurricane Ian, evolved:

 

 

 

 

Versus the Eastern Mass Weather Final Call, issued at roughly 730pm on Tuesday night:

 

 

Fort Myers, FL was correctly identified as the most severely impacted major population center. Clearly the timing and location of the forecast was exemplary, having effectively incorporated climatology to disregard the consensus of guidance in the Monday night issuance of First Call:

 

"Future Track of Ian Dependent Upon Interaction with Trough: Climo maybe the best Tool

The track forecast is high confidence until Ian makes it around the western periphery of the high pressure node that is currently steering it into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

It is at this point that it will being to turn towards the north and potentially even north northeast, as we approach mid week and it becomes under the influence of the northern periphery of the ridge and the base of a trough to the north.

The primary question then becomes will it lose enough longitude to reach the west coast of Florida, or will it remain off of the coast (and how far) until reaching the panhandle...there is simply no way to know for sure and educated guesses will rule the day.

Here is the guidance that will inform said "guesses":

Hurricane Track Guidance and Global Guidance

Note the cluster to the east, in the general vicinity of Tampa...

 

European Ensemble Suite

There is  similar cluster on the European suite, which has been admittedly biased to the east over the course of the past few days.

 

GFS Ensemble Suite:

A similar, albeit less defined trend is noted on the GFS suite, as the western mean seems to be pulled by a scattering of western outliers, as opposed to a concentrated cluster.

 

Canadian Ensemble Suite:

With such a stark dichotomy in forecast track, which is so crucial to intensity, as will be discussed momentarily, climatology may be the best guidance with respect to the future track of Hurricane Ian. And this is potentially grave news for the Tampa Bay metro area.

Here is a graphic courtesy of Matt Gross, which lists all of the major hurricane strikes between 1900 and 2010 throughout the state of Florida.

Note that the best guidance clustering is definitely within the eastern climo cluster, in the vicinity if Tampa. While it is too early to be confident, this is where the likelihood is highest at this point in time. All residents in this area should rush preparations to protect  life and property to completion over the next couple of days. Especially since it is this eastern track scenario that offers the most intense landfall potential."

While it was reasoned that the more eastern track offered a more intense scenario. as it turned out the forecast was not nearly  intense enough.

 

Landfall Intensity Forecast Left Much to be Desired

The logic all throughout the forecast period was that a more eastern track would result in a more intense hurricane strike.

 

 

But complicating matters was that interaction with the higher terrain of wester Cuba induced a premature Eye wall Replacement Cycle (EWRC) as it re emerged int the se Gulf of Mexico.

 

 

The forecast final forecast philosophy was that while the further south and east track would avoid much of the shear and dry air intrusion, these inhibiting factors would become just prevalent enough prior to landfall to retard the ability to the hurricane to fully recover from this EWRC. Thus it was not forecast to intensify significantly prior to landfall. However, Ian ended up recovering just about as proficiently and quickly as physically possible, and this coupled with the fact that its size allowed to be virtually impervious to the marginal mitigating factors allowed to take full advantage of some very high octane oceanic heat content. While this was alluded to as a possibility in the Final Call, it was not forecast.

 

"The one caveat that bares watching is that if Ian should complete the aforementioned EWRC and conditions are not prohibitive to intensification, the oceanic heat content is very high just off of the coast of Fort Myers, so the possibility of late intensification, though not forecast, can not be ruled out.

 

 

Thus the forecast intensity of 115mph was well short of the verified 150mph maximum sustained winds at landfall.

 

 

 

 

FINAL GRADE: C

Thanks Ray! Awesome. 

[MattPetrulli]

Odd reads from recon 

SFMR continues to be higher than FL and around hurricane force, south of the circulation and no convection. Almost sting jet like. Also a really broad pressure gradient. 

 

[MANDA]

Some incredible picture in this article / link. 

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11263749/Stunning-aerial-pics-reveal-deadly-hurricane-cut-swath-Florida.html

[smokeybandit]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not political just commenting on a person of status, the Gov of Florida just did an interview on TWC and when talking about why people may not have evacuated he pointed out the GFS showing the storm hitting the Panhandle as one reason. 

That wouldn't surprise me. So much stock is put in these models so far in advance and people get the "it won't hit here" mentality.

[StantonParkHoya]

Has Ian started the NW turn?

[turtlehurricane]

Winds picked up and are blasting against my windows. Simultaneously, temperature and dew point has dropped drastically, and I went outside and it feels like Fall! 
 

Ian dragged the 1st cold front of the season down here. 
 

likewise, this is not really a tropical cyclone anymore. It’s definitely sub-tropical at this point, and soon to be extra-tropical.

Not to be underestimated tho, sub-tropical cyclones like Ian have enormous wind fields. 

[NCWX]

Is it just me or is dry air getting sucked in?  Also what’s up with the breaks in the infrared through NC?  Is the front tearing it up?  

[ATDoel]

37 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

That wouldn't surprise me. So much stock is put in these models so far in advance and people get the "it won't hit here" mentality.

This is my biggest problem with the way the NHC/MEDIA informs the public on hurricanes.  You always hear "forecasted to make landfall at xxxx location at xxxx wind speed".  People don't have the patience or understanding to look at the cone or listen to a forecast discussion about possible strengthening beyond the forecast intensity.  I would much rather the forecast to be simply to read out the locations within the cone of uncertainty, and to give percentages on possible strength at landfall.  If they know they can't predict the exact landfall  location and strength at landfall, they need to stop telling people that information like they can.

[MattPetrulli]

80 MPH and 986 at 11 PM. 85 MPH peak forecast now.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Those wave heights are fairly significant and increasing gradually

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

80 MPH and 986 at 11 PM. 85 MPH peak forecast now.

Also moved the center line of the cone north closer to myrtle. 

[bdgwx]

Per the latest NHC advisory and using the IKE calculator Ian has an IKE of 128 TJ. 

[DAWGNKITTEN]

53 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Has Ian started the NW turn?

I have been wondering the same thing!

 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

7 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

Per the latest NHC advisory and using the IKE calculator Ian has an IKE of 128 TJ. 

That’s very impressive, Irma for comparison was 125 TJ

[Nibor]

11 minutes ago, ATDoel said:

This is my biggest problem with the way the NHC/MEDIA informs the public on hurricanes.  You always hear "forecasted to make landfall at xxxx location at xxxx wind speed".  People don't have the patience or understanding to look at the cone or listen to a forecast discussion about possible strengthening beyond the forecast intensity.  I would much rather the forecast to be simply to read out the locations within the cone of uncertainty, and to give percentages on possible strength at landfall.  If they know they can't predict the exact landfall  location and strength at landfall, they need to stop telling people that information like they can.

"I would have evacuated but they gave it a 15% chance of being a category 1"

"I would have evacuated but they were listing off all the possible locations and I didn't have time for that."

The only thing that'll improve forecasts is to better fund the National Weather Service and all other public weather agencies like the NHC. They are so severely under funded it's ridiculous.

[MattPetrulli]

More 70-75 knot SFMRs recorded in the NW quadrant. Organization definitely increasing on radar with an eyewall feature, at least temporarily, developing and becoming more defined on radar. 

Cold top also firing near the center coinciding with developing eyewall like feature

[MattPetrulli]

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IAN A LITTLE 
STRONGER...

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that Ian's maximum winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1115 PM EDT...0315 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 79.3W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

[WEATHER53]

41 minutes ago, NCWX said:

Is it just me or is dry air getting sucked in?  Also what’s up with the breaks in the infrared through NC?  Is the front tearing it up?  

To me it looks like Ian is beating  it and not the typical other way around 

[bdgwx]

That’s very impressive, Irma for comparison was 125 TJ

To be fair that calculator isn't doing a complete spatial integration so it is likely over estimating the true IKE possibly by a lot. For point of comparison the same calculator using the Sandy NHC advisory yields 300 TJ if I'm remembering correctly. But yeah it's still very impressive and people should be advised not to scoff at Ian's cat 1 status.

Sent from my Pixel 5a using Tapatalk

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET is a little SW of the prior two runs with landfall near Georgetown instead of just SW of Myrtle Beach:

 HURRICANE IAN        ANALYSED POSITION : 29.5N  79.5W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 30.09.2022    0  29.5N  79.5W      988            58
    1200UTC 30.09.2022   12  31.4N  79.2W      984            55
    0000UTC 01.10.2022   24  34.5N  79.4W      987            37
    1200UTC 01.10.2022   36  35.7N  80.4W     1002            25
    0000UTC 02.10.2022   48              CEASED TRACKING

[MattPetrulli]

Dry dewpoints seems to be leading to convection wanning and being weak when it reaches land. Should change through the night, however

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Sandy wasn't a Cat 3 or higher hurricane. ....the damage would be far more extensive.

Depends on physical size too, Sandy was of a gigantic size.

Buried power lines matter too, with power lines underground you'll see shorter outages

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, jm1220 said:

My town had no power for a month because of the power infrastructure problem FL will be dealing with. Places that didn’t flood in Sandy did get the power back in a week or so, and crews from IN and MO were in my town working on it. In areas that had saltwater intrusion into any power infrastructure it likely needs to be rebuilt entirely. Anything electric/metallic, the salt water destroys. 

I feel like I was lucky to get power back in 25 hours

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

it wasn't even tropical

 

It doesn't have to be tropical to cause a hell of a lot of damage

[USCG RS]

10 hours ago, jm1220 said:

My town had no power for a month because of the power infrastructure problem FL will be dealing with. Places that didn’t flood in Sandy did get the power back in a week or so, and crews from IN and MO were in my town working on it. In areas that had saltwater intrusion into any power infrastructure it likely needs to be rebuilt entirely. Anything electric/metallic, the salt water destroys. 

Unfortunately parts of Florida is most likely looking at several weeks at least. It will really depend on how terribly the infrastructure took a hit, however, I have a feeling entire Substations are destroyed. 

Furthermore, I wonder how hard a hit the Fort Meyers Power Plant took. Surge would have been enough to destroy quite a bit of equipment. 

[eyewall]

Just had a bumpy ride from ATL to RDU landing at 1:09am. The tracker on screen had a 50 mph wind down to 2000ft.

[GaWx]

Almost no net movement 11PM to 2AM  (only ~3 mph) per NHC coordinates wasn't totally unexpected based on the Euro and UKMET as they had very slow movement then. However, they both had it speed up quite a bit from 2AM through 5AM. So, look for an increase in speed to start soon. If it doesn't and the 5AM is near the 2AM position, then we'd know the models are off.

[jconsor]

Thread on severe inland flooding in central Florida in the Orlando-Kissimmee metro area.  That area contains hundreds of small lakes, basically a sitting duck for flooding when heavy rains hit.  However, this flooding is clearly historic!  A thread of videos and photos of the inland flooding in central FL:
 

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

48 minutes ago, jconsor said:

Thread on severe inland flooding in central Florida in the Orlando-Kissimmee metro area.  That area contains hundreds of small lakes, basically a sitting duck for flooding when heavy rains hit.  However, this flooding is clearly historic!  A thread of videos and photos of the inland flooding in central FL:
 

 

Those images almost remind me of the tragic flooding pics of Harvey in TX around the developments, although so far Ian hasn't reached the obscenely excessive levels of rain that Harvey produced as a cutoff 'caine that just meandered around SE TX sucking in GOM moisture, and depositing it beneath where it traveled.  Will have to see how close it does get to that amount of rain though.

Ian has slowed a bit from the last update per the 5 am -