Hurricane Ian

[olafminesaw]

5 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

65 knot SFMR, which confirms NHC's upgrade to a hurricane earlier

Pressure down at least to 988 as well. NHC nailed this one 

[MattPetrulli]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

Pressure down at least to 988 as well. NHC nailed this one 

 

75 knot SFMR too. That was found to the NW of the center so curious what's in that intense northern band.

[StantonParkHoya]

It’s looks pretty awful on IR

[gymengineer]

3 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

 

75 knot SFMR too. That was found to the NW of the center so curious what's in that intense northern band.

And not just the 74/75 knot peak. That’s 10 separate SMFR readings at hurricane force. 

[MattPetrulli]

3 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

And not just the 74/75 knot peak. That’s 10 separate SMFR readings at hurricane force. 

Rather large area of hurricane force winds, NHC nailed the pressure at least it seems

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just wanted to acknowledge how impressive the insight was throughout this thread during the evolution of this historic hurricane. I certainly learned a lot about intensity forecasting and undoubtedly much more to learn.

Here is my verification write up for those interested:

Hurricane Ian Verification Offers Mixed Results

Location and Timing of Landfall Forecast Nearly Flawless

Here is how landfall of one of the most historic hurricanes in the history of the US, Hurricane Ian, evolved:

 

 

 

 

Versus the Eastern Mass Weather Final Call, issued at roughly 730pm on Tuesday night:

 

 

Fort Myers, FL was correctly identified as the most severely impacted major population center. Clearly the timing and location of the forecast was exemplary, having effectively incorporated climatology to disregard the consensus of guidance in the Monday night issuance of First Call:

 

"Future Track of Ian Dependent Upon Interaction with Trough: Climo maybe the best Tool

The track forecast is high confidence until Ian makes it around the western periphery of the high pressure node that is currently steering it into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

It is at this point that it will being to turn towards the north and potentially even north northeast, as we approach mid week and it becomes under the influence of the northern periphery of the ridge and the base of a trough to the north.

The primary question then becomes will it lose enough longitude to reach the west coast of Florida, or will it remain off of the coast (and how far) until reaching the panhandle...there is simply no way to know for sure and educated guesses will rule the day.

Here is the guidance that will inform said "guesses":

Hurricane Track Guidance and Global Guidance

Note the cluster to the east, in the general vicinity of Tampa...

 

European Ensemble Suite

There is  similar cluster on the European suite, which has been admittedly biased to the east over the course of the past few days.

 

GFS Ensemble Suite:

A similar, albeit less defined trend is noted on the GFS suite, as the western mean seems to be pulled by a scattering of western outliers, as opposed to a concentrated cluster.

 

Canadian Ensemble Suite:

With such a stark dichotomy in forecast track, which is so crucial to intensity, as will be discussed momentarily, climatology may be the best guidance with respect to the future track of Hurricane Ian. And this is potentially grave news for the Tampa Bay metro area.

Here is a graphic courtesy of Matt Gross, which lists all of the major hurricane strikes between 1900 and 2010 throughout the state of Florida.

Note that the best guidance clustering is definitely within the eastern climo cluster, in the vicinity if Tampa. While it is too early to be confident, this is where the likelihood is highest at this point in time. All residents in this area should rush preparations to protect  life and property to completion over the next couple of days. Especially since it is this eastern track scenario that offers the most intense landfall potential."

While it was reasoned that the more eastern track offered a more intense scenario. as it turned out the forecast was not nearly  intense enough.

 

Landfall Intensity Forecast Left Much to be Desired

The logic all throughout the forecast period was that a more eastern track would result in a more intense hurricane strike.

 

 

But complicating matters was that interaction with the higher terrain of wester Cuba induced a premature Eye wall Replacement Cycle (EWRC) as it re emerged int the se Gulf of Mexico.

 

 

The forecast final forecast philosophy was that while the further south and east track would avoid much of the shear and dry air intrusion, these inhibiting factors would become just prevalent enough prior to landfall to retard the ability to the hurricane to fully recover from this EWRC. Thus it was not forecast to intensify significantly prior to landfall. However, Ian ended up recovering just about as proficiently and quickly as physically possible, and this coupled with the fact that its size allowed to be virtually impervious to the marginal mitigating factors allowed to take full advantage of some very high octane oceanic heat content. While this was alluded to as a possibility in the Final Call, it was not forecast.

 

"The one caveat that bares watching is that if Ian should complete the aforementioned EWRC and conditions are not prohibitive to intensification, the oceanic heat content is very high just off of the coast of Fort Myers, so the possibility of late intensification, though not forecast, can not be ruled out.

 

 

Thus the forecast intensity of 115mph was well short of the verified 150mph maximum sustained winds at landfall.

 

 

 

 

FINAL GRADE: C

[cheese007]

 

 

[Wmsptwx]

2 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

 

 

Great work lol. Yikes.

[MattPetrulli]

NHC keeps it at 65 knots at 8 PM, assuming it's because of flight level winds not higher than the SFMRs.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

Great work lol. Yikes.

Media's imagined timelines on urban search and rescue is. . . interesting. 

[Wmsptwx]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Media's imagined timelines on urban search and rescue is. . . interesting. 

Yup lol

[SchaumburgStormer]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Media's imagined timelines on urban search and rescue is. . . interesting. 

900 homes? 15-20 minute job on the media timeline 

[Bubbler86]

Not political just commenting on a person of status, the Gov of Florida just did an interview on TWC and when talking about why people may not have evacuated he pointed out the GFS showing the storm hitting the Panhandle as one reason. 

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

900 homes? 15-20 minute job on the media timeline 

Maryland's USAR Task Force #1 was in Puerto Rico then did a turn and burn to go to Florida. We can't even get to these places but because some news station slipped through a restricted area they think everyone can. It gives a bad impression to the public.

[f2tornado]

12 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

It’s looks pretty awful on IR

It's not the beatuty it was Wednesday morning but the coldest tops I've seen all day are sprouting near the center. We should see some enhancement as we get closer to the diurnal max. Model guidance ramps up the wind field in the right quad later tonight into the morning. Not exepecting much in the way of max wind increase but have a feeling the surge in Georetown vicinity could be fairly impressive given what must be a massive amount of IKE around this thing. 

[MattPetrulli]

20 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

NHC keeps it at 65 knots at 8 PM, assuming it's because of flight level winds not higher than the SFMRs.

Strangely enough, best track for 00z has it at 70 knots 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The NHC adjusted the SC landfall slightly from Charleston on the 11 AM track to 20 miles NE of Charleston on the 5 PM track.

 Will it end up landfalling further NE than that? I had said in my prior post that I was favoring the 12Z UKMET's just S of Myrtle Beach over the 1Z Euro's just S of Charleston based on the 2 PM EDT actual of 28.9N, 80.0W, as compared to the 2 PM of the UK/Euro as it then matched the UKMET. But let's now add the 5 PM location to the mix: 

 NHC actual locations:

 11 AM 28.7N, 80.4W

  2 PM 28.9N, 80.0W

  5 PM 29.3N, 79.9W

  So, realizing that wobbling can cause deception as regards the heading, note the sharp directional change for 2 PM-5 PM vs the prior 3 hours. From 11 AM to 2 PM, it moved ENE. But from 2 PM to 5 PM, it moved NNE. The 12Z UKMET gets it to 79.4W as of 8PM vs the 12Z Euro's 79.9W. IF Ian has really turned NNE for good, it won't make it to 79.4 at 8 PM and the Euro 79.9 may end up closer at 8 PM. If the Euro ends up closer, then I'd probably change my prediction from favoring the 12Z UKMET to favoring the 12Z Euro for the track to SC, which would mean closer to Charleston than Myrtle Beach.

 The NHC 8 PM location is 29.7N, 79.4W, which is right on the 12Z UKMET forecast for 8 PM and well east of the 12Z Euro forecast for 8 PM, which had it at 29.7N, 79.9W. The NHC 5 PM track didn't have it get to 79.4W for another 6 hours. Thus both the 5 PM NHC track and the 12Z Euro are too far west. Therefore, I'm sticking with the 12Z/18Z UKMET runs for a just SW of Myrtle Beach landfall rather than close to CHS.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The NHC 8 PM location is 29.7N, 79.4W, which is right on the 12Z UKMET forecast for 8 PM and well east of the 12Z Euro forecast for 8 PM, which had it at 29.7N, 79.9W. The NHC 5 PM track didn't have it get to 79.4W for another 6 hours. Thus both the 5 PM NHC track and the 12Z Euro are too far west. Therefore, I'm sticking with the 12Z/18Z UKMET runs for a just SW of Myrtle Beach landfall.

One of the components of tropical forecasting that I've always found interesting is track bias. Some storms, no matter what kind of extra sampling or data ingestion, they will have a left or right track bias. You get that one model that waffles horrendously on intensity, timing, etc, but absolutely nails the track, or any wonky turns. It makes this field so humbling.

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not political just commenting on a person of status, the Gov of Florida just did an interview on TWC and when talking about why people may not have evacuated he pointed out the GFS showing the storm hitting the Panhandle as one reason. 

I don't think the average person is looking at the GFS runs, but the issue was that it was weighted into the NHC forecasts and gave folks farther down the coast a false sense of security.  

One thing I wish the media outlets would stop doing is showing the center line on the cone.  That happens all the time.

[gymengineer]

In spite of the satellite appearance, Ian’s wind field on the NW to SE axis is remarkably symmetrical. Obviously nothing near when it was a major hurricane, but the SE side has a large extent of TS force winds even in the low clouds. 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I don't think the average person is looking at the GFS runs, but the issue was that it was weighted into the NHC forecasts and gave folks farther down the coast a false sense of security.  

One thing I wish the media outlets would stop doing is showing the center line on the cone.  That happens all the time.

I thought it interesting that he insinuated the public was mislead by the GFS.   Just mentioning a specific model in a interview like that is a surprise.  I thought he did a good job in the interview as an overall view on it. 

[MattPetrulli]

Assuming this is the center (think it is given the coordinates provided on 8 PM advisory) then Ian is trying to construct an eyewall again. If recent SFMRs are correct which support a strength of 70-75 knots, I think a peak intensity of 80-85 knot isn't totally out of the question, especially if this really is an eyewall being constructed. Also, there is a wide area of 45-50 knot+ winds on the east side of the circulation with relatively no convection. Pretty impressive imo.

[StantonParkHoya]

22 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The NHC 8 PM location is 29.7N, 79.4W, which is right on the 12Z UKMET forecast for 8 PM and well east of the 12Z Euro forecast for 8 PM, which had it at 29.7N, 79.9W. The NHC 5 PM track didn't have it get to 79.4W for another 6 hours. Thus both the 5 PM NHC track and the 12Z Euro are too far west. Therefore, I'm sticking with the 12Z/18Z UKMET runs for a just SW of Myrtle Beach landfall rather than close to CHS.

Speed difference?

[MattPetrulli]

26 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Assuming this is the center (think it is given the coordinates provided on 8 PM advisory) then Ian is trying to construct an eyewall again. If recent SFMRs are correct which support a strength of 70-75 knots, I think a peak intensity of 80-85 knot isn't totally out of the question, especially if this really is an eyewall being constructed. Also, there is a wide area of 45-50 knot+ winds on the east side of the circulation with relatively no convection. Pretty impressive imo.

Nevermind about the eyewall part, center seems to be to the east of that feature. Point still stands about 80-85 knot peak potentially though.

[Cuteirishgirl25]

Can someone please post the Governor DeSantis weather channel interview where he criticizes the GFS?

[clskinsfan]

51 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not political just commenting on a person of status, the Gov of Florida just did an interview on TWC and when talking about why people may not have evacuated he pointed out the GFS showing the storm hitting the Panhandle as one reason. 

I mean not being political either. But a lot of the people that evacuated the Tampa area evacuated to Fort Myers. So yeah. I think next time when people are told to evacuate it needs to be to the other coast of Florida depending on which coast is getting hit. The cone is the cone and it will almost always verify. 

[StantonParkHoya]

18z Euro brings it in south of Charleston, who knows?

[Bubbler86]

17 minutes ago, Cuteirishgirl25 said:

Can someone please post the Governor DeSantis weather channel interview where he criticizes the GFS?

It was a two part interview with Jim Cantore....not sure if it is online anywhere.  Not sure criticizing the GFS is the right word vs. Using it as an excuse as to why people in SW Florida did not evacuate. 

[Bubbler86]

14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I mean not being political either. But a lot of the people that evacuated the Tampa area evacuated to Fort Myers. So yeah. I think next time when people are told to evacuate it needs to be to the other coast of Florida depending on which coast is getting hit. The cone is the cone and it will almost always verify. 

Yea, leaving Tampa to go some place where the storm will be passing first makes little sense.  2017 Irma is the same case.  Tampa was in the cross hairs and it turned in well to the south with much less warning than this one.

[Hurricane Agnes]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The NHC 8 PM location is 29.7N, 79.4W, which is right on the 12Z UKMET forecast for 8 PM and well east of the 12Z Euro forecast for 8 PM, which had it at 29.7N, 79.9W. The NHC 5 PM track didn't have it get to 79.4W for another 6 hours. Thus both the 5 PM NHC track and the 12Z Euro are too far west. Therefore, I'm sticking with the 12Z/18Z UKMET runs for a just SW of Myrtle Beach landfall rather than close to CHS.

Interesting that you mention the Ukie because IIRC, the Ukie actually nailed (2017) Irma's track where it crawled along the northern coast of Cuba before it made its northward turn towards FL, so I know I try to keep the Ukie in my pocket for times like this.