ILMRoss Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 the good news: the eye has lost some of its symmetry the bad news: it's because of anvil spilling over from an absolutely monstrous hot tower still a lot of room for strengthening, don't want to think about where this bottoms out at 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Allan’s graphic, as always, is super helpful to see the range of landfall points and why it’s always so hard to nail down the exact landfall location on the west coast of Florida: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The stall over FL appears dead too-more models taking it steadily NE now.... That's good with regards to flooding however the movement NE will still be very slow across the peninsula so someone's gonna get 20-25" minimum. Unfortunately the odds of another landfall continue to rise and models that do take that route restrengthen the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 15 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: If you look at the Hires images, the EURO strengthens Ian all the way till landfall at Charlotte Harbor. Devastating run for them. It's a whole different ball game now that the trough has caught Ian and is pulling it NE. This may act to encourage strengthening all the way till landfall with the additional aid to outflow ventilation. As opposed to meandering storm in the cooler waters near the big bend (further north). Yep, entirely different animal than it coming to the Northern Gulf coast ingesting dry air. Much more classic scenario and favorable conditions for a major landfall. Not good. EURO track verbatim coming in near or a tad north of Charlotte Harbor would bring terrible surge and wind damage. Like Charley but over a much wider area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Little bit of a moat after the southern eyewall. Thinking maybe a little dry air? Everyone free to chime in of course 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 17 minutes ago, wncsnow said: What an odd track Gonna hit Clemson right during the NC State prime time game if that track is right. Yeesh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, MattPetrulli said: Little bit of a moat after the southern eyewall. Thinking maybe a little dry air? Everyone free to chime in of course Its probably still trying to resolve some structural deficiencies that resulted from interaction with the higher terrain of Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said: Little bit of a moat after the southern eyewall. Thinking maybe a little dry air? Everyone free to chime in of course I noticed this too. I think it's subsidence occurring radially inward from the strengthening outer band on the south side. Perhaps the beginnings of the formation of concentric eyewalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, jpeters3 said: I noticed this too. I think it's subsidence occurring radially inward from the strengthening outer band on the south side. Perhaps the beginnings of the formation of concentric eyewalls. I thought maybe concentric eyewalls too, but want to wait for recon to make a pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its probably still trying to resolve some structural deficiencies that resulted from interaction with the higher terrain of Cuba. Is it possibly the start of an eyewall replacement cycle? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Thats a hell of a northern eyewall forming 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Stupid amount of lightning in the northern eyewall 12 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: I noticed this too. I think it's subsidence occurring radially inward from the strengthening outer band on the south side. Perhaps the beginnings of the formation of concentric eyewalls. Yeah, i think the recon will shed some light on this feature. it's also possible that the moat is a relic of the land interaction, as an earlier poster suggested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Nice sized moat in the south now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Stupid amount of lightning in the northern eyewall This makes me think we are starting to see the effects of increasing southerly shear, which is arguably visibly evident in the visible loop to the south of the storm. Shear will make the inner eyewall lopsided and can "supercharge" the eyewall convection on the downshear flank a bit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 13 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Little bit of a moat after the southern eyewall. Thinking maybe a little dry air? Everyone free to chime in of course That’s what I was thinking earlier, radar out of Key West appeared to show dry air working in from west side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AChilders Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Stupid amount of lightning in the northern eyewall Looks like it it back on course with the NHC, just a little to the east after the earlier wobble 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 The radar at Key West appears to show a second region of strong winds organizing, which may mean that the moat is due to a new eyewall developing. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crocodile23 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 11 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Stupid amount of lightning in the northern eyewall Which radar is this(site or app)? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Treckasec said: The radar at Key West appears to show a second wind region of strong winds organizing, which may mean that the moat is due to a new eyewall developing. I would agree with you, just the west edge seems to be eroding which is concerning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Treckasec said: The radar at Key West appears to show a second wind region of strong winds organizing, which may mean that the moat is due to a new eyewall developing. If correct not a good time to have that happen. It will have time to "recover" / tighten up before landfall. If it did not tighten up then the result would be a much more spread out wind field. We'll have to see how this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 22 minutes ago, largetornado said: Is it possibly the start of an eyewall replacement cycle? Sometimes interaction with land can help trigger them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, Treckasec said: The radar at Key West appears to show a second wind region of strong winds organizing, which may mean that the moat is due to a new eyewall developing. Looking at this, its def an EWRC IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 96 frame radar image from the COD site. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=BYX-N0B-0-96-100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 14 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: This makes me think we are starting to see the effects of increasing southerly shear, which is arguably visibly evident in the visible loop to the south of the storm. Shear will make the inner eyewall lopsided and can "supercharge" the eyewall convection on the downshear flank a bit. Agreed. I think we may also be witnessesing the first stages of an attempted EWRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, Crocodile23 said: Which radar is this(site or app)? Thanks. GRLevel2. The lightning is from a placefile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Anyone have the 18z hurricane model tracks? Not fully loading on TT. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Anyone have the 18z hurricane model tracks? Not fully loading on TT. Thanks. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Couple of trends with the 00z/12z guidance today: 1.) Big rainfall totals for Florida up into Carolinas 2.) Ian maintains or strengthens up until first US landfall 3.) Ian may emerge back over SE Atlantic Ocean then make 2nd landfall in GA or SC. 4.) Moderate flooding impacts possible up into southern VA this weekend.Definitely watching in Charleston. Wouldn’t be shocked to see even at Cat 1 run up in here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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