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14 hours ago, forkyfork said:

it's an anticyclonic wave break which doesn't pinch off the ridge. so after that ends we get a retrograde pattern and probably more heat beyond day 10

 

The AWB produces a near record 500mb height anomaly just south of Greenland. So the -NAO could have some lasting power. It could be another case of needing record blocking to get some cooler to closer to normal temperatures around here.

 

D03CDAE4-E563-4CDB-8A04-B84DE19889D7.thumb.jpeg.c16faf053c33e56de709222dee5de772.jpeg

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Yep.   Get ready for a see-saw T Regime during the next 15 days.

Today's   14C+ 850mb T and 5700m THK  becomes the 0C and 5445m THK around the 23rd  and then  back up to 19C! 850mb T and 5700m THK again for the first days of October.     Supposedly results in this:       It was 93 in early October 2019.

1663502400-Furow4Lx1QU.png

 

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Tomorrow will be a very warm day with temperatures reaching the middle and upper 80s across the region. A few of the hotter spots could hit 90°. Somewhat cooler air will arrive afterward and then a sharp cold shot is likely after midweek.

In the longer range, there remains greater than usual uncertainty, as extratropical Merbok, which pounded the Bering Sea area, could impact the jet stream. Occasionally, such cyclones have set in motion a pattern evolution that has dislodged cold air that pours into the continental U.S. 1-2 weeks later. A classic example from the far more intense Nuri occurred in 2014. Nuri bombed out as it battered the Bering Sea region on November 9. Very cold air moved into the northeastern U.S. starting on November 15. Near record and even some record low temperatures occurred from November 18-22. Merbok will not reach Nuri's intensity, but the scenario of a strong cold shot to close out September and open October is plausible.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. On September 7, Philadelphia picked up 1.22" of rain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +31.91 today. That broke the daily record of +28.76, which was set in 2013.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.911 today.

On September 16 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.220 (RMM). The September 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.482 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.9° (1.7° above normal).

 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be variably cloudy and very warm.  High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 85°

Newark: 88°

Philadelphia: 88°

It will turn cooler tomorrow. A sharp cold shot is likely after midweek.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 75.1°; 15-Year: 76.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 76.6°; 15-Year: 77.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 77.9°; 15-Year: 78.7°

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It looks like the heat may peak today in the upper 80s instead of the mid 90s which was forecast last week. So I guess this counts as making slow progress toward fall. NYC could see the first lower 50s of the season by next weekend as a stronger blocking pattern sets up. 

New run for today 

0D39CBEE-F0E6-4DDF-85D0-243DC8493893.thumb.png.8d4925482901fd3be463d6983dd77139.png

Old run much warmer

 

7E75F5F6-520F-4CAA-BDFF-541A40412263.thumb.png.dd6e82108e49844a3f1731015d8dca94.png
 

Cool down for later in week

40626C32-2CA1-4348-B216-2A8AAAB36320.thumb.png.4f9c3da34eff4dba8a5cf4a235369c0a.png

 

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The next 8 days are averaging  69degs.(61/77) or +2.

Month to date is  72.8[+1.4].          Should be  71.6[+1.6] by the 27th.

Reached 84 here yesterday.

Today:  82-86, wind w., clouding up, rain by 6pm?, 67 tomorrow AM.

70*(85%RH) here at 7am.      71* at 9am.      77* at Noon.      80* at 1pm.     Reached 84* at 4pm.        Quick Rain at 5:30pm.     72* at 6pm.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It looks like the heat may peak today in the upper 80s instead of the mid 90s which was forecast last week. So I guess this counts as making slow progress toward fall. NYC could see the first lower 50s of the season by next weekend as a stronger blocking pattern sets up. 

New run for today 

0D39CBEE-F0E6-4DDF-85D0-243DC8493893.thumb.png.8d4925482901fd3be463d6983dd77139.png

Old run much warmer

 

7E75F5F6-520F-4CAA-BDFF-541A40412263.thumb.png.dd6e82108e49844a3f1731015d8dca94.png
 

Cool down for later in week

40626C32-2CA1-4348-B216-2A8AAAB36320.thumb.png.4f9c3da34eff4dba8a5cf4a235369c0a.png

 

Never trust the GFS with temps in the LR-seems to have a warm bias in the summer

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14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Never trust the GFS with temps in the LR-seems to have a warm bias in the summer

That’s a given but the GEM and Euro were just as hot. The blocking verified stronger. So we get a +10 day instead of +15 to +20. That’s what passes for cooler in our warming climate. 
 

Almanac for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
September 19, 2022
Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest
Max Temperature M 77 93 in 1983 62 in 1987
Min Temperature M 60 70 in 2016 44 in 1959

E2B0B5A9-5563-4B5B-837E-52E46730831C.thumb.png.3bf23eba3ebbaf48f3ac59f215e4ce09.png
BE2DF340-0648-4651-893D-E1ADD00F078E.thumb.png.cfc74b1031cf4749782ee4b3eb88724e.png


 

 

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No place for feelings in science, but I have a feeling this is going to be an interesting fall/winter one way or another. 
 

With the strong SH stratospheric cooling and the climate system’s tendency toward balance, maybe we get some stratospheric warming up here and a weakened PV (there was some correlation shown in an article linked a ways back, was interesting if nothing else). Or maybe the extra water vapor broadly keeps things slightly warmer. 
 

In other threads here I saw some speculation about a -NAO Dec with a potential fast start to winter (perhaps front loaded), but I remember last Dec originally being forecasted cold and, yeah big nope. Prob smarter to always assume we’ll be in shorts and flip flops Xmas day lol. 
 

One things for sure, after this consistently hot summer I’m well prepared to enjoy some cool crisp air, so I’m looking forward to the cold front and cooldown however long it lasts. Great hiking weather and my favorite time of year to be outside. 

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74/ 64 and on way to upper 80s.  Clouds likely in the way of a late season hot 90 at the warmer spots.  Already area of clouds and showers pushing into C-PA and should arrive here by 12:30 - 2:00PM (mainly the clouds not many showers).  Outside chance of 90 but likely capped 87-89.  Riding the rim of the huge ridge centered over the TX/OK border and with it a wave of low pressure will bring some rain/storms into NY state and New England Mon PM  Tue (9/20.  Warm back up Wed (9/21) and again outside chance of a over performer coupled with recent dryness.  Other wise the front and with rain / storms will cap Thu even with 850s of >18c into the upper 70s low 80s. 

By the end of this week and coming weekend, the coolest air of the season Fri (9/23) - Sun (9/25) arrives. 40s for inland areas at night.  Warms back up by next Mon (9/26) before the next cool down towards the end of next week / Sep.  Beyond there do we head back into a relatively overall warmer by a bit after the open of next month with riding pushing into the east.

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