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It’s been a while since we’ve had a Great Atlantic Hurricane or LI Express type powerful storm chug up the coast right in the pocket offshore NJ. What was the last major storm like that in the area, Bob despite being further east? I’m struggling to recall other recent storms with similar tracks and decent intensity. 
 

Would be “fun” to track and experience, but would certainly do a lot of damage nowadays. 
 

And wasn’t there a powerful fast moving potential ~ cat 4 that barreled right up along the western border of NJ in the early 1800’s? Remember reading about that one. Wonder if modern SST’s would modulate the likelihood of another event like that. IIRC it was able to retain such intensity due to unusually fast forward speed. 
 

Sandy was so unusual in how a lot of us were in the right front quadrant for a change. 

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34 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

It’s been a while since we’ve had a Great Atlantic Hurricane or LI Express type powerful storm chug up the coast right in the pocket offshore NJ. What was the last major storm like that in the area, Bob despite being further east? I’m struggling to recall other recent storms with similar tracks and decent intensity. 
 

Would be “fun” to track and experience, but would certainly do a lot of damage nowadays. 
 

And wasn’t there a powerful fast moving potential ~ cat 4 that barreled right up along the western border of NJ in the early 1800’s? Remember reading about that one. Wonder if modern SST’s would modulate the likelihood of another event like that. IIRC it was able to retain such intensity due to unusually fast forward speed. 
 

Sandy was so unusual in how a lot of us were in the right front quadrant for a change. 

List of known / suspected hurricanes / tropical cyclones that affected the New York Region in the 1600's / 1700's / 1800's.  

List of New York hurricanes

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
 
 
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400px-Landfalling_New_York_hurricanes.pn
 
Track map of all storms known to have made landfall in the state of New York

Eighty-five tropical or subtropical cyclones have affected the state of New York since the 17th century. The state of New York is located along the East Coast of the United States, in the Northeastern portion of the country. The strongest of these storms was the 1938 New England hurricane, which struck Long Island as a Category 3 storm on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale. Killing more than 60 people, it was also the deadliest. Tropical cyclones have affected the state primarily in September but have also hit during every month of the hurricane season, June through November. Tropical cyclones rarely make landfall on the state, although it is common for remnants of tropical cyclones to produce heavy rainfall and flooding.

Before 1800[edit]

  • Between 1278 and 1438: A major hurricane struck the modern-day New York/New Jersey area.[1]
  • August 25, 1635: A hurricane that is reported to have tracked parallel to the East Coast impacts New England and New York, although it remains unknown if any damage occurred.[2]
  • September 8, 1667: A 'severe storm' is reported in Manhattan and is reported to be a continuation of a powerful hurricane which affected the Mid-Atlantic.[2]
  • October 29, 1693: The Great Storm of 1693 causes severe damage on Long Island, and is reported to create the Fire Island Cut as a result of the coast-changing storm surge and waves.[2][3]
  • September 23, 1785: Several large ships crash into Governors Island as a result of powerful waves which are reported to have been generated by a tropical cyclone.[3]
  • August 19, 1788: A hurricane strikes New York City or Long Island and is reported to have left the west side of the Battery "laid in ruins" after severe flooding occurs.[3]

1800–1899[edit]

200px-1821_Atlantic_Hurricane_Track_Map.
 
Estimated track of the 1821 Norfolk and Long Island hurricane
  • October 9, 1804: Heavy snow falls in Eastern New York peaking at 30 inches (75 cm) as a hurricane tracks northward along the East Coast and becomes extratropical, as cold air fed into the system.[4]
  • September 5, 1815: A hurricane tracks over North Carolina and parallels the East Coast before producing a heavy rainstorm in New York.[5]
  • September 24, 1815: Several hundred trees fall and the majority of the fruit was stripped off apple trees just prior to harvesting time after a hurricane makes landfall on Long Island.[6]
  • September 16, 1816: A possible hurricane strikes New York City, but damage remains unknown.[2]
  • August 9, 1817: A tropical storm produces heavy rainfall in New York City and Long Island.[2]
  • September 3, 1821: The 1821 Norfolk and Long Island hurricane results in severe damage on Long Island and is accompanied by storm surge of 13 feet (4 m). High wind causes a ship to crash on Long Island killing 17 people.[7]
  • June 4, 1825: A hurricane moves off the East Coast and tracks south of New York causing several ship wrecks, and killing seven people.[3]
  • August 27, 1827: High tides are reported in New York City which are caused by a hurricane offshore.[8]
  • August 1, 1830: A hurricane passes to the east of New York and produces gale-force winds to New York City and Long Island.[9]
  • October 4, 1841: Gale–force winds affect New York City as a hurricane tracks north along the East Coast of the United States. Damage is estimated at $2 million (1841 USD, $41 million 2007 USD).[10]
  • October 13, 1846: The Great Havana Hurricane of 1846 tracks inland, causing some damage to New York City.[3]
  • October 6, 1849: Severe structural damage occurs in New York City and Long Island with the passage of a hurricane to the east.[3]
  • July 19, 1850: A hurricane destroys a Coney Island bath house and causes heavy rain, although damage is unknown.[3] This storm destroyed the ship Elizabeth off Fire Island and drowned American transcendentalist Margaret Fuller.
  • August 24, 1850: A storm that is reported to be a hurricane affects New York and New England although there is no known damage.[2]
  • September 9, 1854: A hurricane brushes the East Coast from Florida to New England causing rain on Long Island.[3]
  • September 16, 1858: Low barometric pressure of 28.87 inches mercury at Sag Harbor is reported, and is thought to be associated with a tropical cyclone which causes no known damage.[3]
  • September 6, 1869: A category 3 hurricane makes landfall in Rhode Island and brushes Long Island, which is affected by rain, although minimal damage resulted from the storm.[3]
  • October 28, 1872: A tropical storm passes over New York City and Long Island.[11]
  • October 1, 1874: New York City and the Hudson Valley receives rainfall after a minimal tropical storm tracked over Eastern New York.[11]
  • September 19, 1876: The remnants of the San Felipe hurricane track over western New York State, although damage is unknown.[11]
  • October 24, 1878: The state is affected by tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain with the passage of a hurricane, which made landfall in Virginia.[11][12]
  • August 22, 1888: A tropical storm tracks over New York City before tracking north along the East Coast of the United States.[11]
  • August 24, 1893: Hog Island is washed away by strong storm surge associated with a tropical storm of unknown strength.[3] According to HURDAT, this was a Category 1 hurricane that struck the western end of the Rockaway Peninsula, passing through Brooklyn as a weakening hurricane. Manhattan Island saw gale-force winds to 56 mph.
  • August 29, 1893: | Sea Islands hurricane moves thorough the Hudson Valley as a tropical storm.[13] Lives were lost in the Rockaways and when tow boats were destroyed at various points along the Hudson River. Roofs, structures, boats and crops were destroyed or damaged from Brooklyn to as far west as Dunkirk. Winds of 54 and 57 MPH recorded in New York and Albany respectively.[14][15]
  • October 10, 1894: 10 People were killed and 15 injured at 74 Monroe Street in Manhattan when winds blew a building under construction onto a tenement crushing it. Extensive damage in the NYC and Long Island to telegraph lines, trees and boats docked on shore. Storm formed over Gulf of Mexico as a Category 3 weakened over land in the Southeast and re strengthened to a Category 1 over the Chesapeake Bay before striking Long Island.[16][17]
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1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

It’s been a while since we’ve had a Great Atlantic Hurricane or LI Express type powerful storm chug up the coast right in the pocket offshore NJ. What was the last major storm like that in the area, Bob despite being further east? I’m struggling to recall other recent storms with similar tracks and decent intensity. 
 

Would be “fun” to track and experience, but would certainly do a lot of damage nowadays. 
 

And wasn’t there a powerful fast moving potential ~ cat 4 that barreled right up along the western border of NJ in the early 1800’s? Remember reading about that one. Wonder if modern SST’s would modulate the likelihood of another event like that. IIRC it was able to retain such intensity due to unusually fast forward speed. 
 

Sandy was so unusual in how a lot of us were in the right front quadrant for a change. 

The last hurricane to take a path up the east coast and strike Long Island was Gloria in 1985. Since then tropical storms have made similar paths but none were classified as hurricanes when they hit our area.

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36 minutes ago, lee59 said:

The last hurricane to take a path up the east coast and strike Long Island was Gloria in 1985. Since then tropical storms have made similar paths but none were classified as hurricanes when they hit our area.


look at the current SST anomaly chart. Interesting….

1E45B17D-9786-4ACB-A9A4-7753674ACCC8.png

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Much cooler air will begin to filter into the region tonight. By Friday morning, the coolest air mass so far this season will cover the region. The temperature will likely slip below 60° for the first time this season at Central Park.

However, the early autumnal chill will be short-lived. Noticeably warmer air will likely return early next week. The potential exists for parts of the region to experience 90° or above temperatures at the height of the warmth. Philadelphia and Newark have the best chance at approaching or reaching 90° during the peak of the warmth. New York City will likely top out in the middle or perhaps upper 80s.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. On September 7, Philadelphia picked up 1.22" of rain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +7.91 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.930 today.

On September 12 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.233 (RMM). The September 11-adjusted amplitude was 0.314 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.1° (1.9° above normal).

 

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It's amazing the tug of war the models get into as they're trying to sort out all the data only 7 days prior to a ridge building into the east on top of some kind of tropical system and two models completely different tracks differing by almost a thousand miles as to where this tropical system will go. GFS into the Atlantic threatening the eastern seaboard or GGEM into the Gulf of Mexico threatening the Gulf Coast. The GFS solution at this point brings more heat into the northeast, perhaps two days of around 90 degree temperatures while on the GGEM we are just on the edge of the ridge the same two days but could hit 90 on at least one of them. The models will continue to go back and forth and probably even swap solutions at some point before they settle on what's going to happen. The low confidence in choosing sides right now is that the only ensemble which supports the above scenarios slightly is the GEPS. We're still waiting for the EPS and GEFS to lend credibility to what the operational models are doing.

WX/PT

gem_z500_mslp_us_34.png

gfs_z500_mslp_us_33.png

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Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly sunny and cooler.  High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 75°

Newark: 77°

Philadelphia: 78°

Much warmer air will arrive on Sunday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 76.6°; 15-Year: 77.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 78.1°; 15-Year: 78.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 79.3°; 15-Year: 80.0°

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The next 8 days are averaging  75degs.(66/84) or +7.

Month to date is  73.6[+1.6].       Should be  74.1[+3.5] by the 23rd.

Reached 81 here yesterday.

Today: 73-78, wind nw.-breezy, m. sunny, 59 tomorrow AM.

65*(54%RH) at 7am.      64* at 8am.        65* at 9am.        68* at Noon.     70* at 2pm.       72* at 3pm.      73* at 3:30pm.      75* at 4pm.      76*(30%RH) at 5pm.       77*(28%RH) at 5:30pm.         70* at 8pm.

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Down to 58 last night and now up to a very dry and comfort 67.   Looking gorgeous the next few days and this weekend Sat (9/16). upper 70s / low 80s and dry (open windows) kinda nights.   By Sun (9/17)  ridge is ballooning into TX/OK and the Western Atlantic ridge trying to link pushes warmer air into the region as heights rise. 

So by Sun (9/18) the warmer spots has a shot at late season heat, some storms / clouds maybe brush the area Monday before more warmth and potential heat Tue (9/19) - Fri (9/23) with peak of the heat spike Wed into Thu (9/22).  Beyond that tropics alive in the Atlantic or GOM?  Front comes through next weekend for a brief reprieve in an otherwise overall warm (hot a day or so) period.

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With a warm first half of the month and a period of much above normal temperatures likely later this weekend into next week, it is likely that the monthly mean temperature will average at or above 70°F in New York City this September. Historically, such warmth occurred about once every 4 years (once every 5 years prior to 2000). However, with a warming climate coupled with the City’s urban heat island effect, the return time has been cut by more than 50% since 2000. At current monthly normals, such Septembers may now be the norm.

image.jpeg.9961a058df34079f66fcf6548f09c66f.jpeg

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21 hours ago, lee59 said:

The last hurricane to take a path up the east coast and strike Long Island was Gloria in 1985. Since then tropical storms have made similar paths but none were classified as hurricanes when they hit our area.

well bob was a hurricane and just passed to the east of long island in 1991

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4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

With a warm first half of the month and a period of much above normal temperatures likely later this weekend into next week, it is likely that the monthly mean temperature will average at or above 70°F in New York City this September. Historically, such warmth occurred about once every 4 years (once every 5 years prior to 2000). However, with a warming climate coupled with the City’s urban heat island effect, the return time has been cut by more than 50% since 2000. At current monthly normals, such Septembers may now be the norm.

image.jpeg.9961a058df34079f66fcf6548f09c66f.jpeg

I would like to say it’s alarming but that’s the wrong word.

It is acute. Too acute for any normal realm of occurrence 

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42 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

well bob was a hurricane and just passed to the east of long island in 1991

Yes it was a hurricane but did not hit Long Island directly. If it took the same path as Gloria, it would have been one of the worst hurricanes to hit Long Island as it was very strong when it reached our latitude.

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Yes it was a hurricane but did not hit Long Island directly. If it took the same path as Gloria, it would have been one of the worst hurricanes to hit Long Island as it was very strong when it reached our latitude.

Agreed, it had a fully intact eyewall at our latitude and devastated cape cod. There would have been gusts well over 100mph for much of Long Island with a Gloria track


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39 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:


Agreed, it had a fully intact eyewall at our latitude and devastated cape cod. There would have been gusts well over 100mph for much of Long Island with a Gloria track


.

This probably won’t be it but we certainly are due for what we saw from the late 1930s-early 1960s. A Great Atlantic Hurricane, Donna, 1938, Hazel etc would be 50 billion dollar disasters at the very minimum. Bob 75 miles or so further west would’ve been devastating as well. We seem to get these marine heatwaves all the time too, so any Hurricane would have less time to weaken as it comes north. 

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2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

This probably won’t be it but we certainly are due for what we saw from the late 1930s-early 1960s. A Great Atlantic Hurricane, Donna, 1938, Hazel etc would be 50 billion dollar disasters at the very minimum. Bob 75 miles or so further west would’ve been devastating as well. We seem to get these marine heatwaves all the time too, so any Hurricane would have less time to weaken as it comes north. 

https://www.weather.gov/box/hurricane_bob

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The coolest air mass so far this season is continuing to overspread the region. The temperature will dip into the 50s for the first time this season at Central Park. Some outlying areas could see the mercury dip below 50°.

However, the early autumnal chill will be short-lived. Noticeably warmer air will likely return early next week. The potential exists for parts of the region to experience 90° or above temperatures at the height of the warmth. Philadelphia and Newark have the best chance at approaching or reaching 90° during the peak of the warmth. New York City will likely top out in the middle or upper 80s.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. On September 7, Philadelphia picked up 1.22" of rain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +8.50 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.510 today.

On September 13 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.030 (RMM). The September 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.229 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.2° (2.0° above normal).

 

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