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Our front associated rains usually are best with warm fronts coming in from the SW... looks like some nice showers developing down that way... headed for SW Suffolk...

I dare say... we may see our first heavy down pours since early June...



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Once again... looks like the marine air taking the wind out of the energy off the coast...

Just can't catch a break this year...

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49 minutes ago, T5403CG said:

Once again... looks like the marine air taking the wind out of the energy off the coast...

Just can't catch a break this year...

Sent from my moto g power (2021) using Tapatalk
 

And the beat goes on. Why expect change?

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A system will likely continue to bring light to occasionally moderate rain to the region tomorrow perhaps into Tuesday. The coolest air mass so far this season will likely arrive late in the week.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. On September 7, Philadelphia picked up 1.22" of rain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around August 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +13.91 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.755 today.

On September 9 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.446 (RMM). The September 8-adjusted amplitude was 0.722 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.6° (1.4° above normal).

 

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Tonight
Showers before 2am, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm between 2am and 5am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5am. Low around 66. South wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible
 
lol
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Morning thoughts…

It will be variably cloudy. Showers and thundershowers are possible.  High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 82°

Newark: 84°

Philadelphia: 85°

Much cooler air will arrive late in the week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 77.7°; 15-Year: 78.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 79.2°; 15-Year: 79.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 80.4°; 15-Year: 80.8°

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Endless summer pattern so far this month across the area. Many urban stations still haven’t fallen below 60° yet. Several suburban stations haven’t dropped below 55° yet. These are among the warmest minimums we have seen this far into September. There is a chance that we may finally pass these early fall benchmarks by later this week with a brief cool down. But temperatures rebound back to around 90° by early next week. So September has become more like a 4th month of summer rather than the first month of fall.

Very warm minimums so far across the area

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Lowest Min Temperature Aug 1 to Sep 12
Missing Count
1 2015-09-12 63 0
2 2022-09-12 62 1
3 2020-09-12 61 0
- 2016-09-12 61 0
- 2014-09-12 61 0
- 1996-09-12 61 0
4 1966-09-12 60 0
- 1947-09-12 60 0
- 1905-09-12 60 0


 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Lowest Min Temperature Aug 1 to Sep 12
Missing Count
1 2015-09-12 57 0
- 2011-09-12 57 0
- 1996-09-12 57 6
2 2022-09-12 56 1
3 2005-09-12 55 0
- 1999-09-12 55 5


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Lowest Min Temperature Aug 1 to Sep 12
Missing Count
1 1996-09-12 58 0
2 2020-09-12 57 0
- 2018-09-12 57 0
- 2014-09-12 57 0
3 2022-09-12 56 1
- 2016-09-12 56 0
- 2015-09-12 56 0
- 1983-09-12 56 0



Brief cool down later this week


19914445-2B88-4668-84CD-C189189F3F37.thumb.png.bbe5ffb4219c62c9560fadc12dd8d5dd.png

 

90° readings may return by early next week


BCFEE26A-9D88-4DE4-BABA-2EB621087EE2.thumb.png.8899c04aa2a73b3cb7ce541eeca2aafb.png

 

 

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