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These weather statistics for the Blue Hills Observatory are similar to our area. It shows how widespread all these top 5 and 10 warmest months and seasons have been. Also what a big outlier February 2015 was.

 

 

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

This was a North Shore special like all the other events this summer. So the highest drought areas along the South Shore didn't get much relief. It was the typical .25 to .50 event for much of the South Shore.


 

COCORAHS             

...Nassau County...
Syosset                      2.20 in   0840 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Levittown                    1.84 in   0830 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Oyster Bay                   1.53 in   0815 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Hicksville                   1.52 in   0827 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Muttontown                   1.51 in   0840 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Syosset                      1.38 in   0825 AM 09/06   COOP                 
Great Neck                   1.15 in   0828 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Muttontown                   0.95 in   0839 PM 09/06   AWS                  
East Hills                   0.84 in   0625 PM 09/06   AWS                  
Carle Place                  0.81 in   0820 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Searingtown                  0.71 in   0543 PM 09/06   AWS                  
Farmingdale                  0.66 in   0815 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
North Merrick                0.63 in   0816 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
North Massapequa             0.55 in   0836 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
North Massapequa             0.52 in   0828 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Wantagh                      0.41 in   0829 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Herricks                     0.37 in   0830 AM 09/06   COCORAHS             
Valley Stream                0.37 in   0836 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Atoc - Plainview             0.34 in   0745 PM 09/06   RAWS                 
Wantagh                      0.34 in   0835 PM 09/06   NYSM                 
Locust Valley 0.3 E          0.29 in   0845 AM 09/06   COCORAHS             
Merrick                      0.28 in   0825 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Bellmore                     0.25 in   0840 PM 09/06   AWS              

 

Suffolk County...
Northport                    2.03 in   0520 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Shirley                      1.79 in   0830 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Smithtown                    1.63 in   0830 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Dix Hills                    1.61 in   0824 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Greenlawn                    1.59 in   0821 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Shirley Airport              1.54 in   0814 PM 09/06   ASOS                 
Stony Brook                  1.46 in   0835 PM 09/06   NYSM                 
Baiting Hollow               1.24 in   0840 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Northport 1.6 NNE            1.08 in   0804 AM 09/06   COCORAHS             
Upton                        1.08 in   0944 PM 09/06   Official NWS Obs     
Kings Park                   1.02 in   0830 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
SMITHTOWN                    0.98 in   0830 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Miller Place                 0.97 in   0825 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Stony Brook                  0.94 in   0839 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Patchogue                    0.87 in   0836 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
North Patchogue              0.81 in   0829 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Centerport                   0.80 in   0700 AM 09/06   COOP                 
Blue Point                   0.80 in   0830 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Ridge                        0.78 in   0835 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Blue Point                   0.76 in   0837 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
3.6 NE Calverton             0.75 in   0500 PM 09/06   COOP                 
Sayville                     0.71 in   0839 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Blue Point                   0.69 in   0835 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Montauk Airport              0.67 in   0754 PM 09/06   ASOS                 
Islip Airport                0.65 in   0756 PM 09/06   ASOS                 
Fishers Island               0.62 in   0800 AM 09/06   COCORAHS             
Nys Portable No. 1           0.57 in   0754 PM 09/06   RAWS                 
West Islip                   0.57 in   0824 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Remsenburg                   0.57 in   0825 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Orient                       0.57 in   0838 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Sagtikos Parkway             0.55 in   0625 PM 09/06   AWS                  
Westhampton Airport          0.55 in   0753 PM 09/06   ASOS                 
Mount Sinai                  0.53 in   0400 PM 09/06   COOP                 
West Babylon                 0.53 in   0828 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
N. Babylon                   0.52 in   0840 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
1 WNW Wading River           0.51 in   0835 PM 09/06   AWS                  
Brookhaven                   0.50 in   0830 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Farmingdale Airport          0.42 in   0800 PM 09/06   ASOS                 
East Hampton                 0.42 in   0829 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Eastport                     0.41 in   0445 PM 09/06   RAWS                 
Southold                     0.41 in   0835 PM 09/06   NYSM                 
North Babylon                0.37 in   0822 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
East Setauket                0.37 in   0838 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Southold                     0.34 in   0825 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
St James 1.7 W               0.33 in   0700 AM 09/06   COCORAHS             
Northport                    0.27 in   0836 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
West Gilgo Beach             0.25 in   0830 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
1 NNE Watermill              0.25 in   0840 PM 09/06   AWS     

And the highest totals weren’t even captured in N Suffolk. Greenlawn had up to 4” with the stationary shower band. It was a mild drought up here that’s likely over now. Totally different than just 20 min drive south of me. 

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11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

And the highest totals weren’t even captured in N Suffolk. Greenlawn had up to 4” with the stationary shower band. It was a mild drought up here that’s likely over now. Totally different than just 20 min drive south of me. 

It was just enough rain to prevent and upgrade to D3 drought. We haven’t had that here since 2002. So a continuation of hit or miss storms as has been the theme this summer. All the tropical systems look like they will be fish storms for a while.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It was just enough rain to prevent and upgrade to D3 drought. We haven’t had that here since 2002. So a continuation of hit or miss storms as has been the theme this summer. All the tropical systems look like they will be fish storms for a while.

 

 

If anything it should be D3 south of the Southern State and D0 if anything north of the Northern State/LIE. You look at the grass/trees here and it’s like any normal summer. But the south shore literally looks charred. 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If anything it should be D3 south of the Southern State and D0 if anything north of the Northern State/LIE. You look at the grass/trees here and it’s like any normal summer. But the south shore literally looks charred. 

Luckily, it’s mostly a soil moisture drought here on the South Shore with brown lawns. It just hasn’t lasted long enough yet for any type of significant water restrictions. Much different situation than the megadrought in the West. 

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7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro has a nice steady rainfall starting Sunday afternoon 

Yeah Euro is early with the event, and clears it out by tuesday afternoon. A solid inch for a lot of the area. Obviously it'll be awhile before the details are worked out for this event.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Luckily, it’s mostly a soil moisture drought here on the South Shore with brown lawns. It just hasn’t lasted long enough yet for any type of significant water restrictions. Much different situation than the megadrought in the West. 

We'd need a very dry winter/spring then a repeat of this summer for serious drought effects. 

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If anything it should be D3 south of the Southern State and D0 if anything north of the Northern State/LIE. You look at the grass/trees here and it’s like any normal summer. But the south shore literally looks charred. 

Exactly. I’ll grab some pictures of Hempstead lake, they will be worth more then me trying to describe it. As we are heading into more
Strataform rain season things will even out more, but the deficits will remain on the SS.


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Added Radar sensor adjusted rainfall for the entire event. That doesn't get into some of excess details both heavier and lighter but a good idea of what occurred. 

 

Also NYC reservoir system now down to less 10% below normal as of 12z/8. 

 

On drought monitor: This is for totals only through 12Z Tuesday.? We had pretty good rains Tuesday and out here in extreme nw NJ/ne PA and se NYS into Wednesday afternoon, both probably not incorporated into this weeks report. 

  • The data cutoff for Drought Monitor maps is each Tuesday at 8 a.m. EDT. The maps, which are based on analysis of the data, are released each Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Intensity and Impacts

 

Future: Presuming that modeling is gathering consensus, two shots at decent qpf. The first late Sunday-Monday morning---widespread 1/2-1.5" with WPC having upped the ante in the 16z/8 posts and even a slight chance excessive into se PA/sw NJ in its D4 update.

 

Second shot of significant rain, possibly lesser amounts Tuesday compared to early Monday?  but both of these will be helpful, except maybe for s and e LI???  I won't confidently state where less but for now 12z/8 multi modeling has less for that area.  

Both 12z/8 GFS-EC for both dates above, seem to have PW approaching 2" across NJ- e tip LI. Instability looks decent (subzero Mixed layer LI) and Cape 1500J Monday and 500J + on Tuesday. 

 

In any case, I think the drought monitor could show another decrease in severity next Thursday, presuming we get that 1/2-1.5" and its incorporated into the assessment by 12z/Tuesday the 13th.  

 

LONGGGGG shot but maybe we'll see a chance of tropical moisture (PW>2.3" in my mind) coming up the coast the last 6 days of the month? 

 

No matter: Climate sites at BDR/POU in our area ?may? be of interest to monitor for monthly totals after 9/14. 

Screen Shot 2022-09-08 at 3.32.59 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-09-08 at 3.35.30 PM.png

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Warmer air is again returning to the region. Above normal temperatures are likely through Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Afterward, a system could bring at least an appreciable rainfall to the region early next week.

The ongoing historic Western U.S. heatwave is concluding. Nevertheless, parts of the West again saw intense heat. Today's preliminary high temperatures included:

Cheyenne: 95° (old record: 91°, 1979)***Record 11th 95° day***
Denver: 99° (old record: 94°, 1959)
Fairfield (Travis Air Force Base), CA: 115° (old record: 102°, 2004
Los Angeles: 97° (old record: 93°, 1984)
North Platte, NE: 103° (old record: 101°, 2013)
Reno: 101° (old record: 98°, 2021)***Record-tying 22nd 100° day***
Sacramento: 112° (old record: 105°, 2021)
San Jose: 104° (old record: 100°, 1904)
Stockton, CA: 112° (old record: 103°, 1977
Ukiah, CA: 110° (old record: 109°, 1944 and 1957)

Burbank, CA recorded its 9th consecutive 100° day. That broke the record of 8 consecutive days that was set during August 31-September 7, 1955.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. On September 7, Philadelphia picked up 1.22" of rain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around August 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +15.39 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.352 today.

On September 6 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.455 (RMM). The September 7-adjusted amplitude was 0.313 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.7° (1.5° above normal).

 

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6 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro has a nice steady rainfall starting Sunday afternoon 

 

6 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah Euro is early with the event, and clears it out by tuesday afternoon. A solid inch for a lot of the area. Obviously it'll be awhile before the details are worked out for this event.

As of now, looks like a nice rainfall for the areas that missed out last week 

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17 hours ago, wdrag said:

It's CoCoRaHs observers... I'll update 4 day with what is available at 9A today.  Also will try to find another radar-sensor resource and try to complete the loop at that time. BUT ground truth as yours helps to add perspective that substantial rain (2+) occurred on parts of LI as well. Thank you. 

This Sunday night-Tuesday night looking good for widespread 1/2-4" in our subforum as EC is speeding up. My own confidence on this occurrence is 75-80%.  Only the GEFS is slow.  Think we'll see WPC beefing up in near future D5-7. Looks like spotty excessive (5+) Appalachians to the east coast coming this weekend-early next week

Am still speculating that we're way overdue for a pure tropical event here at the end of the month but can't happen with westerly flow across the country.  

Thank you for the clarification. My neighbor and I both report to Weather Underground, and I also report to the Ambient Weather network. I see the radar totals you posted verified the higher amounts in our section of northwest Suffolk. I use the RadarScope app and noted it there as well.

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5 hours ago, scootmandu said:

Thank you for the clarification. My neighbor and I both report to Weather Underground, and I also report to the Ambient Weather network. I see the radar totals you posted verified the higher amounts in our section of northwest Suffolk. I use the RadarScope app and noted it there as well.

In my opinion you're on top of it...

I use Ambient, check it with Stratus gauge (CoCoRAHs). Stratus usually a little less than Ambient and thats what I post.  Radarscope App for $10/year is easily well worth the expense. Add mPing for obs, and Pivotal Weather to Trop Tidbits for model guidance and that's about as good as you can do for the dollar,  not being in the NWS office.

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We have been able to avoid any major 95°+ heat this month due to the record south based blocking. This has allowed all the record heat to remain in the Western US. So only one day in the low 90s this month so far at Newark.

 

DF47A9F1-F859-4E32-A5C5-98105E68FF57.gif.f92ab08917c37533d7f3494e81b2110c.gif

 

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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We have been able to avoid any major 95°+ heat this month due to the record south based blocking. This has allowed all the record heat to remain in the Western US. So only one day in the low 90s this month so far at Newark.

 

DF47A9F1-F859-4E32-A5C5-98105E68FF57.gif.f92ab08917c37533d7f3494e81b2110c.gif

 

Hey blue what do you mean by South base blocking?

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18 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

Hey blue what do you mean by South base blocking?

The blocking builds further south closer to the record warm pool east of New England. So it’s less warm instead of cool pattern like we got during the 20-21 winter. Before the warm pool,  a strong -NAO and -AO was also accompanied by much cooler temperatures. 
 


D2AA4C05-8276-41DD-AEF0-61DD9104AD91.thumb.png.2b568d99222d6d0ae7150dbebd364eae.png

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly to mostly sunny and warm.  High temperatures will reach the lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 80°

Newark: 83°

Philadelphia: 84°

It will be even warmer tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 78.7°; 15-Year: 79,0°

Newark: 30-Year: 80.2°; 15-Year: 80.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 81.3°; 15-Year: 81.5°

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The next 8 days are averaging  75degs.(65/83) or +5.

Reached 78 here yesterday.

Today:  78-83,  wind e.  going to w., m. sunny, 66 tomorrow AM.

The next 30 T-Wise from the EURO:       Precipitation is BN for us.   not shown.     The GFS is hotter and drier----So Eat It!

1665273600-6WbZJaUJqHs.png

65*(80%RH) here at 7am.      68* at 9am.      70* at 10am.       72*  at 11am.     73* at Noon.      77* at 4pm.       Reached 78* at 5pm.     73* at 7pm.

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68 / 57 and bright sunshine.  Onshore flow continues with a bit warmer result today and warmer Saturday, looking low / mid 80s. Some of the warmer places may get to upper 80s.  Ridge is slow to give way long the east coast and trough and front slow to move out between later Sun (9/11) and Tue PM (9/13) and Wed (9/14).  Beyond there the Rockies ridge is forces east and heights rise into the east by the end of next week.  Next shot at late season heat in the 9/17 - 9/21 timeframe, in the warmer spots and an overall warmer second half of of tthe month on tap.

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