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Tonight coastal sections should see a few showers increasing after midnight with an isolated thunderstorm or two. Heavy rainfall tonight over coastal areas looks to be in pockets so while anyone could jackpot with an inch of rain in an hour a mile or two away gets .25" or less. As of now tomorrow morning looks to be extremely bad/good depending on how you look at it with very heavy showers, possibly a thunderstorm over most of the area with many locations receiving over 2.00" rainfall. It continues to slowly diminishes tomorrow afternoon through Wednesday with pockets of an additional 1.00-2.00" or rain.  

WX/PT

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Clouds gradually pushed into the region this afternoon ahead of a slow-moving front. Showers and thunderstorms along that front will lead to a significant rainfall through early Wednesday. A general 1.00"-2.00" rainfall appears likely with locally higher amounts. Drought-stricken southern New England could see 1.50"-3.00" or rain with some locally much higher amounts. Already, a small part of Rhode Island has seen 3"-6" or rain.

Ahead of the front, temperatures climbed well into the 80s. Highs included:

Baltimore: 87°
Bridgeport: 83°
Islip: 85°
New York City: 88°
Newark: 87°
Philadelphia: 90°
Washington, DC: 87°

The ongoing intense heatwave will continue into Wednesday (and Thursday at some locations) in the West. Today's preliminary high temperatures included:

Casper: 97°
Cheyenne: 95° (old record: 94°, 2020) ***Record 8th 95° or above day***
Death Valley, CA: 121° ***Record 5th 120° or above day in September***
Denver: 97°
Fairfield (Travis Air Force Base), CA: 117° (old record: 96°, 1958) ***New all-time record***
Redding, CA: 113°
Reno: 102° (old record: 100°, 2020)
Sacramento: 114° (old record: 108°, 1988) ***New September record***
Salinas, CA: 103° (old record: 97°, 2004)
Salt Lake City: 104° (old record: 100°, 2020) ***New September record for the 3rd time in 5 days***
San Francisco: 97° (old record: 94°, 2004)
San Jose: 104° (old record: 99°, 2008)
Santa Rosa, CA: 112° (old record: 101°, 1923 and 2008) ***New September record***

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around August 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +19.26 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.792 today.

On September 3 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.549 (RMM). The September 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.587 (RMM).

 

 

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North Smithtown rain totals:

June 2022 3.44"

July 2022 2.53"

Aug 2022 2.89"

Sept 2022 0.34" (today's total so far)

5.76" since July 1

9.20" since June 1

 

Nothing profoundly wet about that, but it beats the heck out of nothing.  Of note was 1.75" in an hour the morning of 8/24 when most places, including elsewhere on the north shore, got nothing.

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