SACRUS Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=se&band=02&length=24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Record highs with the heat in 1998 and 2014: near / low 90s Record cool in 1989, 1947 : Upper 30s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Hurricane Ian is looking pretty scary Winds up to 155 mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Euro and GEM continuing with the sharp cutoff to the northern extent of Ian’s moisture. Blocking still looks pretty strong on both models. We’ll have to refine forecast after later runs to see exactly how far north the rains make it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: Euro and GEM continuing with the sharp cutoff to the northern extent of Ian’s moisture. Blocking still looks pretty strong on both models. We’ll have to refine forecast after later runs to see exactly how far north the rains make it. The brunt of the rainfall will be on Saturday correct? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 HPC rather aggressive with rainfall for most of this forum with 1-2" for long suffering south shore of L.I. Northwest NJ on northeastward with much less. I'm thinking not as robust as they are showing but lots of time to watch. SNJ of course has best chances for heavy to perhaps some excessive amounts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Anybody care to comment on the 00z GFS solution for Ian? Seems to drive the remnant low inland over the NC/VA area. Then it appears to spurn a secondary low off the coast on Sunday, and then either another one on Tuesday or it's actual the remnant low that strengthens off the coast? 00z Euro seems to do something similar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 33 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, that’s really the only day that the Euro gives some rain. 6z Euro is further north 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 The last 3 days of September are averaging 61degs.(54/68) or -4. Month to date is 70.7[+0.9]. September should end at 69.7[+0.5]. Reached 73 here yesterday. Today : 67-71, wind w. to n., m. sunny-late clouds, 55 tomorrow AM. Almost there now: HWRF is a little further north---say 30mi. south of Tampa. HEY CHEATER!......Bring My Baby Back................... 54*(78%RH) here at 7am. 56* at 9am. 58* at 10am. 63* at Noon. Reached 70* at 4pm. 68* at 6pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Euro and GEM continuing with the sharp cutoff to the northern extent of Ian’s moisture. Blocking still looks pretty strong on both models. We’ll have to refine forecast after later runs to see exactly how far north the rains make it. 2/6/10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Ukie and cmc bring heavier rain further north but with a sharp cutoff north of i80/84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 euro is pretty decent. looks like the north edge of a miller a 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 tack on the usual 50-75 mile bump north and the map will be correct 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 WPC scaled back slightly on northern edge in latest update. Still gets needed rainfall to L.I. We'll watch trends in the coming days. Going to be a sharp northern edge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: euro is pretty decent. looks like the north edge of a miller a Eps is very with a 1.00+ on the mean for Saturday. It lingers rain into next week as the remnants of Ian circulation moves east. Most of the idv have rain here, so it’s not just a few idv skew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Icon was very wet from Saturday into Tuesday. Sharp cutoff just to the north of nyc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 4 hours ago, forkyfork said: euro is pretty decent. looks like the north edge of a miller a Not happy for a weekend washout. But I’m ok with it. Need it on the south shore 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Not happy for a weekend washout. But I’m ok with it. Need it on the south shore We take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 The week will likely end with unseasonably cool temperatures. At least some showers are likely this weekend. Parts of the region, especially central New Jersey southward could see some steadier and perhaps heavier rain. Conditions in ENSO Region 1+2 could have implications for October's temperature anomalies. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States. This afternoon, Hurricane Ian made landfall along Florida's southwest coast with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph. Ian is the 4th hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph or above to make U.S. landfall during the last 5 years. Michael (2018), Laura (2020), and Ida (2021) are the others. No other five-year period saw so many powerful hurricanes make U.S. landfall. Ian will continue to move across Florida tonight. Heavy rain and high winds will continue to inflict damage. In part due to Merbok's impact on the jet stream, September will likely end with cooler than normal conditions. The cool weather could continue into at least the start of October. In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +25.61 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.845 today. On September 26 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.478 (RMM). The September 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.550 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.7° (0.5° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 0z Nam is pretty wet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: 0z Nam is pretty wet It brings it in very early too. Mostly a friday night into early saturday morning event on the NAM. The timing for this event has really been speeding up. 0z GGEM has a good rain early saturday morning too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 32 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: It brings it in very early too. Mostly a friday night into early saturday morning event on the NAM. The timing for this event has really been speeding up. 0z GGEM has a good rain early saturday morning too. Ukie too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 i think the unexpected increase in intensity right before landfall helped pump heights to the east and allowed it to come further north 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 7 hours ago, forkyfork said: euro is pretty decent. looks like the north edge of a miller a 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: It brings it in very early too. Mostly a friday night into early saturday morning event on the NAM. The timing for this event has really been speeding up. 0z GGEM has a good rain early saturday morning too. Nam has been miserable lately and you're talking about rainfall it generates 48-84 hours away. It completely missed on the thunderstorm activity 3 nights ago, and has been enthusiastic in terms of rainfall at times when we've gotten almost none. Let's wait with Nam and see what it looks like 12 hours in advance. It may look very different. I would go with a compromise between the ECMWF, GGEM, and GFS meaning that we'll still be on the northern flank of the precip but it could be ocasionally heavy in a few spots particularly as the GGEM has, way out east. I like the earlier/faster timing. WX/PT 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Nice improvements from the 0z Euro and GEM getting 2.00” to Long Island now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly and somewhat cooler. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 67° Newark: 69° Philadelphia: 71° The week will end with cool temperatures. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 71.0°; 15-Year: 72.3° Newark: 30-Year: 72.6°; 15-Year: 74.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 73.9°; 15-Year: 75.1° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 6z Euro has more rain up here than previous runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 55 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 6z Euro has more rain up here than previous runs thank god this ain’t winter i’d lose my shit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 8 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: thank god this ain’t winter i’d lose my shit Get use to it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 The last 2 days of September are averaging 60degs.(55/66) or -4. Month to date is 70.3[+0.7]. September should end at 70.0[+0.8]. Reached 70 here yesterday. Today: 66-71, m. sunny-clouds late, wind n. to ne. late. 56*(71%RH) here at 7am. 58* at 9am. 61* at Noon. 63* at 1pm. Reached 68* at 4:30pm. 62* at 8pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now