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Tracking the Tropics


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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Glad to see NHC finally realized it wasn’t going to go from beast cat 4 to a 1 in 12 hours prior to LF lol. That was ridiculous. Should be strong cat 3 into Sanibel Island. 

The intensity at landfall was relative to how far north into the sheer (300mb jet streak it got ) if this was landfalling North of Tampa is would slow big time and get hit hard by shear and weaken alot 

The further SE landfall on west coast the stronger it should be . this may be confusing to you :)

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The intensity at landfall was relative to how far north into the sheer (300mb jet streak it got ) if this was landfalling North of Tampa is would slow big time and get hit hard by shear and weaken alot 

The further SE landfall on west coast the stronger it should be . this may be confusing to you :)

Exactly.

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I just saw you covered that as I was reading last couple pages 

I wonder if this can have some Charley like ticks . I’m not trying to act like I know anything or that the set up favors them but just because I’m not sure how prepped people are for the arrival of a potential cat 4 in Ft. Myers because that would take just a little more of a turn and be on them by morning 

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I just saw you covered that as I was reading last couple pages 

I wonder if this can have some Charley like ticks . I’m not trying to act like I know anything or that the set up favors them but just because I’m not sure how prepped people are for the arrival of a potential cat 4 in Ft. Myers because that would take just a little more of a turn and be on them by morning 

Same page...my original thought on Friday was SW FL, and I may have overcorrected a bit yesterday to just N of TB.

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6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

While we wait for our tropical number to be called, today is the anniversary of Gloria. The last CT hurricane strike predates me. 

 

I vaguely remember that....numerous trees down in Wilmington. I home in my aunt's neighborhood that a tree go right through the roof.

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34 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Man, if models keep trending Ian south it will be heading into the Everglades by the 0z runs.  If this comes in under Naples it is pretty much a bullet dodge for all of the populated areas of the W Coast.   Rain could obviously still be an issue. 

then it would just go over the swampy everglades with not much weakening and crush Miami....pick your poison

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1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Man, if models keep trending Ian south it will be heading into the Everglades by the 0z runs.  If this comes in under Naples it is pretty much a bullet dodge for all of the populated areas of the W Coast.   Rain could obviously still be an issue. 

Between Tampa and Clearwater Tampa Bay will siech in the SSW portion then sway back as the storm gets to its Latitude.  

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10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Always in awe when I see this.  Time sensitive-too big for me to post image which is a pita but oh well....sattelite loops so impressive.

 

I think Tampa Bay gets somewhat spared as lf appears further south now...

 

 

 

 

Swaying back N at 18 Z. Weebles wobble but they don't fall down.

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23 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I agree with you that it may wobble a little N again.  Northport LF is bad news for Fort Meyers and not great for Sarasota. 

My coworker’s parents are in Fort Myers and did not evacuate.   I don’t understand that if you have the means. They are pretty close to the water

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6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

My coworker’s parents are in Fort Myers and did not evacuate.   I don’t understand that if you have the means. They are pretty close to the water

Hopefully they’ll be ok.  Sounds like a risky choice.

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No propane, no gasoline, water flying off the shelves. Highways jammed and then you have the yahoo's who are oblivious and stay even along the coast, D'OH
I fear the power will be gone for days. Irma was 6 days prompting a generator purchase. This is going to be stronger, longer.
I'm glad the latest are going S. A few runs back tracking right overhead. AFD has 100+ gusts, isolated 24"+ in wordage with a lot of extremes to boot.
Venice to Daytona Beach. In at 140 out at 40  

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42 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

No propane, no gasoline, water flying off the shelves. Highways jammed and then you have the yahoo's who are oblivious and stay even along the coast, D'OH
I fear the power will be gone for days. Irma was 6 days prompting a generator purchase. This is going to be stronger, longer.
I'm glad the latest are going S. A few runs back tracking right overhead. AFD has 100+ gusts, isolated 24"+ in wordage with a lot of extremes to boot.
Venice to Daytona Beach. In at 140 out at 40  

Wishing you the best.

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43 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

No propane, no gasoline, water flying off the shelves. Highways jammed and then you have the yahoo's who are oblivious and stay even along the coast, D'OH
I fear the power will be gone for days. Irma was 6 days prompting a generator purchase. This is going to be stronger, longer.
I'm glad the latest are going S. A few runs back tracking right overhead. AFD has 100+ gusts, isolated 24"+ in wordage with a lot of extremes to boot.
Venice to Daytona Beach. In at 140 out at 40  

At least you’re not in Tolland

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18Z UKMET finally came north a bit and is now close to 18Z GFS with a landfall near Rontonda. Fort Myers/Charlotte Harbor look like they could be among the worst spots for surge. People have to realize the track may looks a bit like Charley, but Ian is a much bigger surge threat with the larger circulation.

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