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Tracking the Tropics


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1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

CAT 2 seems NBD for FL, IMO.  Even the rain seems to just sink into the limestone they don't seem to ever flood 

Except for the billion dollar disaster with 10 to 20 inches. 

October 3 – The precursor disturbance to Tropical Storm Leslie produces 10–20 inches (255–510 mm) of rainfall across southeastern Florida, flooding about 93,000 houses. The flooding causes $950 million in damage (2000 USD), along with three indirect deaths.

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Always fun to point-click the hires models.

Date: 60 hour NAM valid 18Z WED 28 SEP 22
Station: 25.84,-85.77
Latitude:   25.84
Longitude: -85.77
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000  -681                                                                 
  1  950  -227                                                                 
SFC  926    -0  27.6  27.5 100  0.1  27.6  62 114 307.4 312.2 303.2 385.8 25.69
  3  900   253  24.1  24.1 100 -0.0  24.2  70 174 306.3 310.3 300.8 371.1 21.47
  4  850   754  21.7  21.7 100 -0.0  21.8  80 187 308.9 312.6 300.3 368.6 19.63
  5  800  1281  19.8  19.9 100 -0.0  19.9  90 186 312.3 315.8 300.5 369.4 18.54
  6  750  1838  18.1  18.1 100 -0.0  18.2  97 176 316.3 319.7 300.9 371.8 17.75
  7  700  2429  15.8  15.8 100 -0.0  15.8  99 161 319.9 323.1 300.9 371.7 16.33
  8  650  3060  13.5  13.5 100 -0.0  13.5 101 160 324.2 327.2 301.1 372.9 15.12
  9  600  3733  10.4  10.4 100 -0.0  10.4 109 154 328.2 330.8 300.9 371.8 13.35
 10  550  4457   8.4   8.4 100  0.0   8.4 112 136 334.0 336.6 301.6 376.4 12.68
 11  500  5243   4.2   4.2 100  0.0   4.2 110 120 338.2 340.3 301.2 373.6 10.42

 

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892mb in the eye and above freezing until 345mb. lol :weenie:

Date: 60 hour NAM valid 18Z WED 28 SEP 22
Station: 25.54,-85.77
Latitude:   25.54
Longitude: -85.77
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000 -1017                                                                 
  1  950  -569                                                                 
  2  900   -80                                                                 
SFC  892    -0  29.0  28.8  99  0.2  28.9 195  37 312.2 317.7 305.6 402.6 28.87
  4  850   431  26.4  25.9  97  0.4  26.0 207  39 313.8 318.6 304.3 393.5 25.48
  5  800   969  26.7  21.5  73  5.2  22.7 206  40 319.6 323.6 303.0 384.8 20.52
  6  750  1541  24.8  18.9  70  5.8  20.4 206  41 323.4 327.1 302.8 383.6 18.68
  7  700  2145  21.9  16.0  69  5.9  17.6 207  45 326.8 330.0 302.3 380.6 16.55
  8  650  2788  19.3  12.5  65  6.8  14.4 209  44 330.8 333.6 301.8 377.5 14.14
  9  600  3476  17.1   8.8  58  8.3  11.4 211  45 335.9 338.3 301.6 376.2 11.96
 10  550  4216  14.3   4.8  53  9.5   8.0 211  46 341.1 343.1 301.4 375.0  9.87
 11  500  5018  11.4   0.9  48 10.6   4.8 212  46 347.0 348.7 301.6 375.8  8.20
 12  450  5894   8.4  -4.4  40 12.8   0.9 215  45 353.8 355.1 301.6 376.1  6.14
 13  400  6861   4.9 -10.8  31 15.7  -3.4 219  42 361.4 362.3 301.8 377.3  4.21
 14  350  7940   0.6 -18.8  22 19.4  -8.2 223  37 369.6 370.1 302.1 379.3  2.47
 15  300  9164  -5.9 -32.9  10 27.0 -14.6 224  23 377.1 377.3 302.3 380.5  0.80
 16  250 10562 -17.0 -52.1   3 35.1 -23.1 229  15 380.8 380.8 302.5 381.4  0.12

 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Eh, if this stalls and weakens...not sure if this would be all that exciting to be honest.

Haha I was thinking that too. Best case for me personally would be an east shift over the peninsula and then take my chances with a second landfall in the SE. Ain't likely though. 

I don't think this is it for the season and I just had a great chase, so not too much sleep lost if this one doesn't work out. 

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

892mb in the eye and above freezing until 345mb. lol :weenie:

Date: 60 hour NAM valid 18Z WED 28 SEP 22
Station: 25.54,-85.77
Latitude:   25.54
Longitude: -85.77
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000 -1017                                                                 
  1  950  -569                                                                 
  2  900   -80                                                                 
SFC  892    -0  29.0  28.8  99  0.2  28.9 195  37 312.2 317.7 305.6 402.6 28.87
  4  850   431  26.4  25.9  97  0.4  26.0 207  39 313.8 318.6 304.3 393.5 25.48
  5  800   969  26.7  21.5  73  5.2  22.7 206  40 319.6 323.6 303.0 384.8 20.52
  6  750  1541  24.8  18.9  70  5.8  20.4 206  41 323.4 327.1 302.8 383.6 18.68
  7  700  2145  21.9  16.0  69  5.9  17.6 207  45 326.8 330.0 302.3 380.6 16.55
  8  650  2788  19.3  12.5  65  6.8  14.4 209  44 330.8 333.6 301.8 377.5 14.14
  9  600  3476  17.1   8.8  58  8.3  11.4 211  45 335.9 338.3 301.6 376.2 11.96
 10  550  4216  14.3   4.8  53  9.5   8.0 211  46 341.1 343.1 301.4 375.0  9.87
 11  500  5018  11.4   0.9  48 10.6   4.8 212  46 347.0 348.7 301.6 375.8  8.20
 12  450  5894   8.4  -4.4  40 12.8   0.9 215  45 353.8 355.1 301.6 376.1  6.14
 13  400  6861   4.9 -10.8  31 15.7  -3.4 219  42 361.4 362.3 301.8 377.3  4.21
 14  350  7940   0.6 -18.8  22 19.4  -8.2 223  37 369.6 370.1 302.1 379.3  2.47
 15  300  9164  -5.9 -32.9  10 27.0 -14.6 224  23 377.1 377.3 302.3 380.5  0.80
 16  250 10562 -17.0 -52.1   3 35.1 -23.1 229  15 380.8 380.8 302.5 381.4  0.12

 

Not quite Wilma...meh

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36 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

True, but I definitely do not chase water. 

That 12z GFS run would be close to catastrophic for Tampa and the surrounding area. 

I thought it was the whole package though. If you’re just chasing wind damage, you’re better off joining hands with Wizzy and head to Oklahoma in April. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I thought it was the whole package though. If you’re just chasing wind damage, you’re better off joining hands with Wizzy and head to Oklahoma in April. 

Underestimating surge is the quickest way to end up with a totaled car or dead lol. Not much interest in that. Hurricanes bring much broader (and longer duration) high winds. Love severe and photogenic tors, but there's nothing like watching and experiencing extreme winds in action. 

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21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Underestimating surge is the quickest way to end up with a totaled car or dead lol. Not much interest in that. Hurricanes bring much broader (and longer duration) high winds. Love severe and photogenic tors, but there's nothing like watching and experiencing extreme winds in action. 

It always amazes me how a few folks don’t get it. The vast majority of us are into and fascinated by the weather for the extremes . Most folks here want to see and experience wind damage, heavy snows, severe weather , floods. People aren’t into weather for Coc k sunny days of 73 .

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3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

The duration of TS force winds and hurricane force gusts could be pretty impressive. GFS bufkit for TPA has some pretty prolonged conditions. 

I'm well inland. Presently, latest model forecasts "if correct" re: Ian's track will be 75-100 miles to the W. Sustained TS winds will begin WED night and not abate till FRI morning. 
THAT'S A GOOD POUNDING.   

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