August 2022

[doncat]

91° here...hit 89 yesterday.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

91 already and tomorrows forecast bumped to low 90s

Very easy to do in this SW desert type of climate

The low humidity makes it much more tolerable though 

[winterwx21]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Very easy to do in this SW desert type of climate

The low humidity makes it much more tolerable though 

Yeah the 93 here right now doesn't feel bad at all with the dewpoint of 50. Very nice outside.

 

But I'm hoping the higher dewpoints that will will be coming in sunday will help us finally see some widespread downpours sunday night and monday.

[MJO812]

Need the rain . I'm in NJ right now and all the grass is brown.

I was supposed to go fruit picking today but they had to cancel it this week due to the lack of rain

[wthrmn654]

Wow no wonder my head hurts its 87 out! 

[dWave]

92 here.

Central Park got to 90..before LGA at that.

[doncat]

Sea breeze moved thru around 2pm...dropped temp from 91° down to 83 currently.

[MANDA]

Latest 5 day QPF from HPC.  We can only hope.  This has been trending upwards over last several releases.  It is on the upper end of most guidance so they are aiming high.  I'd take half this and be happy.

[bluewave]

We may get just enough rain on Monday for Newark to fall into 2nd place on the driest summer list. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	2022	3.68	13
2	1966	4.46	0
3	1949	5.68	0
4	1957	5.69	0
5	1965	5.83	0
6	1963	6.18	0
7	1993	6.20	0
8	1953	6.47	0
9	2010	6.74	0
10	1999	6.93	0

[CIK62]

THIS:

BECOMES THIS: ....... in one run and it has JB jumping!

[psv88]

92 today. 84 now with a nice breeze 

[LoboLeader1]

90 here today. Currently 83F/RH 45%/DP 59

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I have the feeling that for the NYC Metro Region 90 degree heat could occur off and on through September 20th followed by 85 degree warmth off and on through October 15th. It looks like a warmer than normal autumn ahead for our area with drought conditions contingent upon any tropical moisture that can wander up this way. 

WX/PT

 

[SACRUS]

8/19

EWR: 94
New Brnswck: 93
PHL: 92
ACY: 90
TEB: 90
TTN: 90
NYC: 90
LGA: 90
ISP: 89
BLM: 89
JFK: 88

[Jersey Andrew]

54 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I have the feeling that for the NYC Metro Region 90 degree heat could occur off and on through September 20th followed by 85 degree warmth off and on through October 15th. It looks like a warmer than normal autumn ahead for our area with drought conditions contingent upon any tropical moisture that can wander up this way. 

WX/PT

 

Summer seems to be lasting well into October these days.

[SACRUS]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

We may get just enough rain on Monday for Newark to fall into 2nd place on the driest summer list. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	2022	3.68	13
2	1966	4.46	0
3	1949	5.68	0
4	1957	5.69	0
5	1965	5.83	0
6	1963	6.18	0
7	1993	6.20	0
8	1953	6.47	0
9	2010	6.74	0
10	1999	6.93	0

 

Looking steady on guidance for a 0.75 or > type event.  We'll see how it progresses.

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

8/19

EWR: 94
New Brnswck: 93
PHL: 92
ACY: 90
TEB: 90
TTN: 90
NYC: 90
LGA: 90
ISP: 89
BLM: 89
JFK: 88

Weird that ewr went from 90 to 94 in between hours and then down to 87 with the wind shift

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be another very warm day. However, cooler air will begin to move into the region for Sunday.

Much of the second half of August could see above to much above normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around August 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was -15.78 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.877 today.

On August 17 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.479 (RMM). The August 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.226 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.2° (2.1° above normal).

 

[forkyfork]

2 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I have the feeling that for the NYC Metro Region 90 degree heat could occur off and on through September 20th followed by 85 degree warmth off and on through October 15th. It looks like a warmer than normal autumn ahead for our area with drought conditions contingent upon any tropical moisture that can wander up this way. 

WX/PT

 

[nycwinter]

31 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

 

 

3 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I have the feeling that for the NYC Metro Region 90 degree heat could occur off and on through September 20th followed by 85 degree warmth off and on through October 15th. It looks like a warmer than normal autumn ahead for our area with drought conditions contingent upon any tropical moisture that can wander up this way. 

WX/PT

 

zero chance of that happening..

[forkyfork]

we have a better chance of seeing the aurora than 1" of rain

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I have the feeling that for the NYC Metro Region 90 degree heat could occur off and on through September 20th followed by 85 degree warmth off and on through October 15th. It looks like a warmer than normal autumn ahead for our area with drought conditions contingent upon any tropical moisture that can wander up this way. 

WX/PT

 

It really depends on whether or not the drought breaks. If it doesn't then you're probably right. 

We'll also likely see a quick switch from summery to wintry. An early bout of snow wouldn't shock me either. 

[bluewave]

Highs near 95° today at the usual NJ warm spots.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  81degs.(74/88) or +5.5.

Month to date is 79.2[+2.4].          Should be  79.7[+3.3] by the 28th.

Reached just 81 here yesterday with s. wind.

Today: 85-90, wind s,. p. cloudy, 73 tomorrow AM

EURO Monthly Outlooks look like the Twin-Tag-Team of HOT&HOTTER

Like the GFS, KWO-35 is going in circles right now.       An endless, digital merry-go-round, of their Preamble.      Useless  JWB 1865

75*(80%RH) here at 7am.        77* at 9am.        80* at Noon.       82* at 2pm.      Reached  83*(72%RH) feels like 89 at 3pm.          76* at 9pm.

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny and very warm. A few locations could see a shower or thundershower. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 89°

Newark: 92°

Philadelphia: 93°

It will turn cooler tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 83.0°; 15-Year: 82.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 84.4°; 15-Year: 84.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.5°; 15-Year: 85.2°

[LoboLeader1]

Noticable up tick in the humidity this AM.  72F/DP 67/RH 84%

[SACRUS]

 

78 / 64 , some showers and clouds into EPA/ NW NJ should clear out in the next hour.  Upper 80s low 90s for the warmer spots.  Sun (8/21) could see clouds and onshore flow move in before trough pushes a front through on Mon (8/22).  Mon into Tue (8/23) best shot at rain since the last best shot, widespread 0.75 / 2 inches of rain (lets see).  Beyond there Wed (8/24) - Sat (8/27) warmer to  - hot, more shot at 90s for the warmer / drier spots.  Monday rains could mute 90 degree heat in the park.  Overall warm to hot at times the last 10 days of August.  Rain chances Mon / Tue and the week of 8/29.

[bluewave]

The actual number of 90° days in Central Park is probably closer to 30 away from the deep shade trees around the castle. NYC used to almost always have 30 days of 90° when Newark reached 40 days. This was when the equipment was out in the open instead of under the trees. The years before the tree growth took off after 2002 featured NYC running much closer to Newark with just 10 or fewer 90° days. This number has increased to 18-24 fewer days since 2016. I am a bit surprised the big media outlets in NYC haven’t taken notice of this growing differential in their weather reports. They would realize how inaccurate the NYC high temperatures have become.
 

Years before tree growth bolded 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	NYC  90° Days
1	2010	54	37….-17
2	1993	49	39…-10
3	1988	43	32….-11
4	2022	42	20….-22
5	2021	41	17….-24
-	2002	41	32….-9
-	1991	41	39….-2
8	2016	40	22….-18
-	1983	40	36…..-4
-	1959	40	27……-13

[SACRUS]

 

[the_other_guy]

On 8/19/2022 at 9:57 AM, forkyfork said:

your normal low is 64

Dude, please stop quoting me. You harassed me and I want to deal with normal people.  Thanks.