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Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!


weatherwiz
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HRRR says between 6pm to 1am to get some activity in RI/SE MA.  Let's see if that happens.  I would just be happy with heavy rain at this point, it's quite parched here, we've missed on almost every rain chance this month except for a couple.

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1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

Looks terrible here, but that was the forecast. :stein:

Yup... the radar looked promising this morning with the line of convection associated with the front looking pretty robust in PA and NY... but it hit a wall in southern New England so far.... some cells here and there but overall more :stein:.  Not sure what the fuss was about from the various forecasting agencies... maybe I'll reverse jinx myself with this post.

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Quote
130 PM Update:

Update to issue Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502 until 800 PM for
all of SNE and upgraded thunderstorm attributes to severe
(damaging winds and large hail).

Shield of mid-level cloud cover across areas south of the Mass
Pike, with most active convection mainly along the NH/MA border.
Recent composite radar imagery however shows some shallow
convective towers getting going in western Worcester County.
Despite the cloud cover, due to high dewpoints in the mid 70s
MLCAPEs are still in the 2000 J/kg range with little to nil
MLCIN to inhibit convection. Steering flow/storm motions is
still from the WSW which should keep active convection in
southern NH to that area for the time being. While these
isolated storms in central MA will continue to move NE into the
Merrimack Valley, as 850-500 mb flow begins to veer to the W,
expect storms to develop and/or shift southeast during the later
afternoon to the mid-evening hours, with guidance indicating
storms making it all the way to the South Coast and even Cape
Cod into early tonight. Damaging winds and heavy rain are the
main risks. A brief tornado is possible, but as flow veers to
the W later this afternoon, that reduces the length of the low-
level hodograph and reduces 0-1km SRH.

 

Not feeling confident this is going to happen but we still have a few hours for some surprises to occur.

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I’d be stunned if we don’t see additional development as the front gets a bit closer. The HRRR isn’t showing much but I just don’t buy it. 18z 3km NAM backed off a bit but still is a bit more than the HRRR. Given the degree of CAPE/shear I’d be shocked. 

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Let’s juice up the atmosphere for some red echoes 

I'd be happy if the yellows just to my west hold together long enough to water the garden.  All that juicy-looking radar this morning failed to reach 0.2".

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9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I’d be stunned if we don’t see additional development as the front gets a bit closer. The HRRR isn’t showing much but I just don’t buy it. 18z 3km NAM backed off a bit but still is a bit more than the HRRR. Given the degree of CAPE/shear I’d be shocked. 

Would like to see the line to the NW fill in a bit, but I’d be surprised too if we didn’t get strong storms at least. It’s pretty much going the way it would have needed to…there’s clearing here and not too much crap to the south to rob CT like Thursday, or so I think..

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Would like to see the line to the NW fill in a bit, but I’d be surprised too if we didn’t get strong storms at least. It’s pretty much going the way it would have needed to…there’s clearing here and not too much crap to the south to rob CT like Thursday, or so I think..

Does look like some convection is trying to fill in. Anything that does form though is likely going to become severe quickly. 

0E44DE35-4F5F-408C-9F06-0786E8250E79.png

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