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Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!


weatherwiz
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47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Cuz SNE. 
Honestly the mesos had some meh runs despite the dynamics so they saw something. My guess is the clouds screwed it up too. 

Mesos did pick up on something. Kind of want to dig into all the equations that are used within them. 

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There were very little height falls... reflected in the 582 dm barely budging through the day.  Not sure that associated to that, mid level lapse rates were all that great at any point. 

I suspect SPC's issue with today was similar to last week - in that there were tantalizing DPs initially ( although last week it was an advection/ delta issue ), and interesting shear kinematic working over the area.   Same today ... both circumstances lacked lapse rates but for whatever reason - blame luck - we did not trigger today as proficiently.

PR-wise: they were compelled some I suspect because they feel just as badly about kids dying under felled trees, and since last weeks tragedy and the set up is/was some 60 .. 70% analog, they were two-fold definitely pulling the trigger.

I know height falls weren’t great but I didn’t think there were terrible. At least they weren’t rising which is what we had a week ago or whatever. How often do we do height falls well anyways? I mean we should have still had at least some severe or even storms and pretty much nil. I mean they had decent storms in NJ/LI and height falls were probably worse or just the same. 

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It’s like they are reading this thread at BOX… :P

645 PM Update: Activity has certainly been less than impressive so far, but we are still seeing scattered thunderstorms across interior SNE tonight with some additional activity trying to get going across RI. Environment remains favorable for thunderstorms tonight with plenty of instability, effective shear, and marginal mid level lapse rates. So why the lack of storms? We think it may be related to the storms that tracked through NYC and Long Island earlier today, which effectively robbed the moisture that was available to feed the storms in our area. That, plus some low and mid level drying behind pre-frontal trough, were probably the main reasons. Going forward, we still expect to see scattered showers/storms tonight ahead of cold front, especially since environmental parameters remain favorable. Some storms could briefly pulse up and become severe, or we may also see small bows or line segments with potential for localized wind damage. Otherwise, wind shift to the NW behind the front which should usher in MUCH drier air for the late-evening/overnight period. Dewpoints upper 50s to lower 60s should be more common in the interior and coastal plain, with lower to mid 60s across the south coast, Cape and Islands by daybreak. Lows to range from the mid 50s to lower 60s north and west of I-95, to the mid to upper 60s across southeast New England.

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Mesos did pick up on something. Kind of want to dig into all the equations that are used within them. 

I know height falls weren’t great but I didn’t think there were terrible. At least they weren’t rising which is what we had a week ago or whatever. How often do we do height falls well anyways? I mean we should have still had at least some severe or even storms and pretty much nil. I mean they had decent storms in NJ/LI and height falls were probably worse or just the same. 

Dude … there were essentially none. Lol

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