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Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!


weatherwiz
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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

"tornadoes" are a tough ..because the average tornado is a pinprick over a geographic area that is so vastly large by comparison, you can't really see the tornado at the scale of the watch box its self.  It has to be magnified by an order of magnitude or more to even see the debris path.

But, the thunderstorm and/or aspects containing the vortext are much larger, and can be seen and/or thus experienced with more frequency at any given point, simply for occupying a greater aspect within a watch box.   Still, they are much, much smaller than that the total geographical area, so they are still on the short likeliness of actually experiencing...

Ranging up to MCS, which can be almost equal the spatial dimensions of a watch area, and pour out 70 mph wind events, behind which there are nodel DBZ cores with hail...etc..  Sometimes even tors... That's when severe watches get a bigger unilateral realization.  But, then again... how often are those kind of MCS happening ..  

Bottom line, yeah ... probabilities are low whether the watch is marginal, or very impressively warranted, either way. It's a matter of how low in either scenario.  

I wonder if regional acclimation is part of it.  Like, they'll issue a watch for 2% coverage potential in Maine, because they don't usually get tors...But they may opt for some specials in Oklahoma ?  I dunno

 

Part of the problem is perception. Keeping this tied solely to convection when watches are issued and of course with the SPC convective outlooks...these are probabilistic forecasts - meaning they are that...probabilities. It is very difficult to verify probabilistic forecasts. 

If there is a large say severe thunderstorm watch box  that extends from say Maine through New England and maybe into Pennsylvania and New Jersey the majority of people would probably anticipate and expected widespread severe weather or a significant amount of reports within the watch box - but is that really true? Is that a fair assessment to make? All a severe thunderstorm watch means is that atmospheric conditions are favorable (key word) for any thunderstorms which develop to become capable of producing damaging winds, hail > 1'', or a tornado. Now you would expect that there will be at least some of these events within the box. 

But what accounts for verifying? I'm sure the SPC has a defined criteria which is probably in a publication somewhere but if let's say there were a total of 10-severe reports within that entire watch box, was it really a bust? 

Anyways and this probably answers the question, but there is a reason why watch boxes probably only get thrown up when there is an expectation for a certain number of reports.

But in terms of the SPC probabilities if we have a 10% TOR contour and no TOR's is that really a bust? That defines that there is a 10% probability for a tornado within 25-miles of any point within that contour...or in other words, a 90% probability there will not be a tornado. Obviously in terms of climo that 10% is going to be extremely high...but at the end of the day the probability is still exceedingly low. 

I wouldn't be surprised if some years from now you see major adjustments with convective forecasting, how it's communicated, and even with probabilities and so forth as the data set grows and we become more sophisticated. 

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15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Part of the problem is perception. Keeping this tied solely to convection when watches are issued and of course with the SPC convective outlooks...these are probabilistic forecasts - meaning they are that...probabilities. It is very difficult to verify probabilistic forecasts. 

If there is a large say severe thunderstorm watch box  that extends from say Maine through New England and maybe into Pennsylvania and New Jersey the majority of people would probably anticipate and expected widespread severe weather or a significant amount of reports within the watch box - but is that really true? Is that a fair assessment to make? All a severe thunderstorm watch means is that atmospheric conditions are favorable (key word) for any thunderstorms which develop to become capable of producing damaging winds, hail > 1'', or a tornado. Now you would expect that there will be at least some of these events within the box. 

But what accounts for verifying? I'm sure the SPC has a defined criteria which is probably in a publication somewhere but if let's say there were a total of 10-severe reports within that entire watch box, was it really a bust? 

Anyways and this probably answers the question, but there is a reason why watch boxes probably only get thrown up when there is an expectation for a certain number of reports.

But in terms of the SPC probabilities if we have a 10% TOR contour and no TOR's is that really a bust? That defines that there is a 10% probability for a tornado within 25-miles of any point within that contour...or in other words, a 90% probability there will not be a tornado. Obviously in terms of climo that 10% is going to be extremely high...but at the end of the day the probability is still exceedingly low. 

I wouldn't be surprised if some years from now you see major adjustments with convective forecasting, how it's communicated, and even with probabilities and so forth as the data set grows and we become more sophisticated. 

No...and that's my point, too - agreed.   Expectations and education - despite our hardened enthusiasm and engagement in a "weather related forum" ( debatable some times, eh hm), we are not really well situated to have realistic expectations and/or real experience based education. 

So yeah... 10% chance of getting anything means there is a 90% chance you get jack-shit.  

It's low-yield, high impact.   How does that girl that died last week at the Sebago Lake camp grounds when a big pine fell on the vehicle she was occupying, no doubt to flee the storm, feel about the fact we spent three days lampooning SPC's efforts since the last 'bust'... I'm not trying to gaslight  - though it sounds that way..lol.  It's we all do it.  It gets boring and then we're overcome when anything happens at all - perspective fails in that circumstance.

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

No...and that's my point, too - agreed.   Expectations and education - despite our hardened enthusiasm and engagement in a "weather related forum" ( debatable some times, eh hm), we are not really well situated to have realistic expectations and/or real experience based education. 

So yeah... 10% chance of getting anything means there is a 90% chance you get jack-shit.  

It's low-yield, high impact.   How does that girl that died last week at the Sebago Lake camp grounds when a big pine fell the vehicle she was occupying, no doubt to flee the storm, feel about the fact we spent three days lampooning SPC's efforts since the last 'bust'... I'm not trying to gaslight  - though it sounds that way..lol.  It's we all do it.  It gets boring and then we're overcome when anything happens at all - perspective fails in that circumstance.

We're too quick to judge every weather event as bust or not...and then quick to make a judgement based on what happened in our backyards. Now I don't think there is anything totally wrong with that mindset, but when that mindset is then used to try and justify to a group of people...I think that's problematic. 

Now at the end of the day if you're going to forecast something as significant as tornadoes or widespread wind damage or a widespread 1-2 foot snowstorm...there really better be something, otherwise the public loses faith, especially if it happens over and over. 

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Crispy towers around but they're tipping over and ripping away from their updraft sources prior to glaciation.   Have seen some alto-strata altitude severed heads moving west to east over top lower/newer attempts.    Sat confirms these observations/ type of sky. 

 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Crispy towers around but they're tipping over and ripping away from their updraft sources prior to glaciation.   Have seen some alto-strata altitude severed heads moving west to east over top lower/newer attempts.    Sat confirms these observations/ type of sky. 

 

That's not something you hear everyday

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mcd1606.gif.8ee40eff3d95a058df3919b07e37b3c6.gif

 Mesoscale Discussion 1606
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

   Areas affected...Central/eastern/northern NY

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 505...

   Valid 281717Z - 281915Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 505
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An evolving cluster across central NY should continue to
   pose a threat for two-three west/east-oriented swaths of damaging
   winds.

   DISCUSSION...Deepest updrafts are located on both the northern and
   southern flanks of an emerging cluster from the Finger Lakes to the
   Upper Saint Lawrence Valley. 17Z mesoanalysis indicates MLCAPE has
   increased to 1000-1500 J/kg ahead of this activity as surface
   temperatures have broadly warmed through the upper 70s to mid 80s.
   The BUF VWP has consistently sampled 40-kt westerlies as low as 2-km
   AGL in the wake of the cluster, while strong mid/upper-level speed
   shear evident in TYX will foster organization potential, including a
   threat for small hail. With a 52 mph gust measured at 1635Z at the
   Penn Yan NY Mesonet site, expect a threat for 45-60 mph gusts within
   the deepest cells and small bowing segments as they spread towards
   eastern NY.

   ..Grams.. 07/28/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
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16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

mcd1606.gif.8ee40eff3d95a058df3919b07e37b3c6.gif

 Mesoscale Discussion 1606
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

   Areas affected...Central/eastern/northern NY

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 505...

   Valid 281717Z - 281915Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 505
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An evolving cluster across central NY should continue to
   pose a threat for two-three west/east-oriented swaths of damaging
   winds.

   DISCUSSION...Deepest updrafts are located on both the northern and
   southern flanks of an emerging cluster from the Finger Lakes to the
   Upper Saint Lawrence Valley. 17Z mesoanalysis indicates MLCAPE has
   increased to 1000-1500 J/kg ahead of this activity as surface
   temperatures have broadly warmed through the upper 70s to mid 80s.
   The BUF VWP has consistently sampled 40-kt westerlies as low as 2-km
   AGL in the wake of the cluster, while strong mid/upper-level speed
   shear evident in TYX will foster organization potential, including a
   threat for small hail. With a 52 mph gust measured at 1635Z at the
   Penn Yan NY Mesonet site, expect a threat for 45-60 mph gusts within
   the deepest cells and small bowing segments as they spread towards
   eastern NY.

   ..Grams.. 07/28/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

We have these cutesy crispy but narrow towers glaciating along an E... well, along the Pike and scattered about down here.

It's hot man.. wow.  Wasn't expecting a 90 deg day but it's 89 to 91 at all home sites within a mile or two of mi casa, and the DPs are 70 to 73.  HI of 97 with crispies poking over tree top horizons is high high summer. 

I wonder if we can organize a cool pool wedge to come plowing into this region toward dark..

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4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Tornado by Glens Falls NY? Radar sure looks like it

in a tough radar spot. rotation seems perhaps a bit too weak but it's gotta be dropping some hail. 

Starting to see a slight uptick in intensity as they move through the Hudson Valley. Some decent CAPE and shear...lapse rates are quite poor so that will really limit how much stronger these can get. Probably see this activity pulse up and down through sunset. 

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37 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I have been getting off and on showers and thunderstorms.  About .20"

Cells are producing some good downpours.  I grabbed this picture a bit earlier from my friends webcam overlooking Newfound Lake

ww.jpg

That’s a sick grab!

Thunder and lightning here with some torrential rain.  I think someone 5-10 miles southwest of here probably got 2-3” of rainfall.

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33 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

not for us, but yes some will get a good storm.

"

The KENX VWP depicts
   around 40-50 kt of 0-6 km unidirectional bulk shear oriented oblique
   to the band of convection, which should continue to support
   deep/persistent updrafts embedded in the line. "

 

Eh. No expectations but it would be cool 

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