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Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!


weatherwiz
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14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Should see a few pretty nasty storms today. Seems like extensive cloud cover and weak lapse rates will hold overall potential back a bit but if any cell can become mature enough and generate a strong enough updraft that can maintain...oof. 

If your chasing today head to RT 31 in Charlton Ma  (just before old Dresser Hill ice stand); you can continue south on 31 to water tower in Dudley with great views east and south

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2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

If your chasing today head to RT 31 in Charlton Ma  (just before old Dresser Hill ice stand); you can continue south on 31 to water tower in Dudley with great views east and south

Unfortunately I can't do much, if any, chasing today. I may get lucky and be able to do BDL after my dentist appointment depending on timing. 

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I think the tornado potential is rather low, but we should be able to see supercells early on in development but hodographs become more straight as opposed to curved as the day progresses (maybe some splitters?). DCAPE though running decently high though (800-1000 J/KG) so damaging winds is certainly the main hazard here. 

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15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think the tornado potential is rather low, but we should be able to see supercells early on in development but hodographs become more straight as opposed to curved as the day progresses (maybe some splitters?). DCAPE though running decently high though (800-1000 J/KG) so damaging winds is certainly the main hazard here. 

Enough damage was done in the Rt 2 area of Mass near Orange/Warwick with straight line winds….Don’t need a spinner to make the trees thinner!! Lol!

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Pretty good DCAPE values and steep 2-6kkm lapse rates present. There may be room for a good swath of wind damage today

image.thumb.png.9a9ed06f6f46dcd625fd5358d3c7296c.png

 

image.thumb.png.af324bdb2024d80584b7fb443fb4efbd.png

Will those lapse rates remain through the day, though? I like seeing DCAPE over 1k but I have to admit I’m still a little skeptical. Still think it’s active, but maybe not realizing today’s full potential.

I’ll readily admit though that I’m far more in my wheelhouse with tropical than severe. 

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Will those lapse rates remain through the day, though? I like seeing DCAPE over 1k but I have to admit I’m still a little skeptical. Still think it’s active, but maybe not realizing today’s full potential.

I’ll readily admit though that I’m far more in my wheelhouse with tropical than severe. 

As long as we don't get alot of crap we should be able to maintain those 2-6km lapse rates. Based on satellite we should be able to get some good pockets of heating which will help to steep low-level lapse rates as well. Thinking this is going to turn into a Pike South day. northern Connecticut on east may be best spot today.

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3 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

I don't see how all this sky junk will move out today in order to rock...

When shear is as strong as it is you don't need full heating or max instability to generate severe weather. While the cloud cover will certainly be one factor negating a more widespread severe weather event it won't completely kill the potential. What we'll probably see today is a few small clusters or lines which produce a swath of damage each. 

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2 hours ago, Modfan2 said:

If your chasing today head to RT 31 in Charlton Ma  (just before old Dresser Hill ice stand); you can continue south on 31 to water tower in Dudley with great views east and south

That's where I'll be, it's 5 miles from my house. My go to spot, usually a few other cars up there during a storm.

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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0753 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022

   Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong-severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across parts
   of the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England.

   ...Synopsis...
   In mid/upper levels, northern-stream flow is becoming characterized
   by broadly cyclonic character across the northern Rockies to the
   Great Lakes and Northeast, with the Great Lakes part being nearly
   zonal.  This is in response largely to the presence of two dominant
   cyclones over Canada:
   1.  A long-lived gyre over the James Bay region, forecast to move
   eastward across northern QC.  A shortwave trough over its southern
   sector is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from the northern
   ON/QC border across northern Lake Huron and portions of Lower MI. 
   This trough will pivot across southern QC and the St. Lawrence
   Valley region today, with its southern fringe glancing the northern
   NY/northern New England area.  A weaker, trailing vorticity lobe
   will move eastward from Lake Erie across NY this afternoon/evening,
   then weaken as it crosses New England.
   2.  A strengthening vortex digging southeastward from the SK/NWT
   border region across northern MB.  Heights will fall across the
   Dakotas late in the period (overnight) as a basal shortwave trough
   approaches.  In advance of that, a small shortwave trough --
   initially apparent over southeastern MT/northeastern WY -- will move
   east-southeastward to central SD today, while weakening, then across
   southern MN overnight.

   At 11Z, the surface analysis showed a cold front from western NY
   across central OH, the lower Ohio River Valley, and MO Ozarks,
   becoming a warm to stationary front across southern KS to a low
   between LBL-GAG.  By 00Z, the cold front should reach eastern New
   England, southern PA, eastern KY, western TN, then become a wavy/
   quasistationary front over southwestern MO and southern KS.  By 12Z,
   the front should extend across NJ to eastern KY, then
   quasistationary near its previous position across MO/KS.  A separate
   cold front -- related to the trailing northern-stream cyclone over
   central Canada -- will move southeastward across the northern High
   Plains overnight, reaching from eastern ND to central WY by 12Z
   tomorrow. 

   ...New England and northern Mid-Atlantic region...
   Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form through this afternoon
   along/ahead of the surface cold front, near a prefrontal surface
   trough, and farther south over portions of the Virginias, over
   strongly heated higher terrain in the warm sector.  An existing
   plume of clouds/precip and widely scattered embedded thunderstorms, 
   from northern ME into PA, should continue to break up gradually on
   the north end this morning, permitting some destabilization in its
   wake, but also setting up localized to mesobeta-scale areas of
   differential heating that may aid storm initiation from midday into
   the afternoon as well.  Scattered damaging gusts, and several
   severe/50-kt gusts, are possible with the midday/afternoon activity.
    A marginal/conditional tornado threat also may exist over northern
   areas, where low-level and deep shear will be the greatest under
   relatively maximized flow aloft.

   Instability generally will increase with southward/southeastward
   extent away from the early cloud cover, as well as between it and
   the front, under cooler air aloft.  Meanwhile, boundary-layer
   moisture will remain favorable across the entire swath (i.e.,
   surface dewpoints upper 60s to low 70s F).  This will offset modest
   midlevel lapse rates to foster a plume of MLCAPE around 1500-2000
   J/kg from northern VA and the Chesapeake Bay area, narrowing
   northeastward to the southern/eastern coastal areas of New England
   away from marine-layer influences.  MLCAPE should diminish
   northwestward from there, but still may reach 500-1200 J/kg over ME,
   except for Downeast areas with onshore flow.  Forecast effective-
   shear magnitudes range from a supercell-favoring 40-50 kt over
   northern New England to around 20-30 kt or less across central VA to
   eastern WV, though a more strongly-heated, deeply mixed boundary
   layer may develop in southern areas in support of pulse/multicell
   gust potential.
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18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

When shear is as strong as it is you don't need full heating or max instability to generate severe weather. While the cloud cover will certainly be one factor negating a more widespread severe weather event it won't completely kill the potential. What we'll probably see today is a few small clusters or lines which produce a swath of damage each. 

Yeah it just seems more conducive to line segments like you said, with a few embedded strong storms with minor rotation, versus those individual supercells we all want.  we'll see!

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Already 2000 J/KG of MLCape region wide which is pretty remarkable for the time of day. Very tough to get MLCAPE values that high with weak mid-level lapse rates, but this is being compensated by dewpoints which are in the 74-77F range. We are pretty capped right now though which is very good, otherwise I think we would see lots of crap going up. With 45-55 knots bulk shear over the region and the high dews we don't need much heating to get things going. Solid height falls through the day and good shortwave support. May be able to see some widespread wind damage from CT into RI and E MA to the coast later on. 

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