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July 2022


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4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

that rain out west better stay away, going to a concert at metlife.

Would not be too concerned about the echoes out in central/eastern PA right now.  You have to go back to the Susquehanna River to find amounts of more than 0.10” (generally speaking).  Most places to the nearby south and west of Allentown are not measuring.  There are a few spots near Lancaster and Harrisburg that are approaching 1” as of now.

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3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Not a drop on the south shore. You know the deal having grown up in Long Beach. We call these secret days at Jones beach. It’s been sunny all day

I'm at Long Beach today and it was nice avoid storms all day, first driving through heavy rain in northern Queens to seeing a storm pass just north then the east of here.  Also the water is quite warm now.

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A small but intense thunderstorm dumped 1.10" of rain on New York City this afternoon with 1.02" falling within an hour. That was this year's first hourly rainfall of 1.00" or more. During 1889-1999, New York City saw one such rainfall about once every 26.1 months. Since 2000, New York City has experienced such a rainfall once every 8.9 months. July accounts for 30% of such cases. August is second with 22% of such cases.

Tomorrow will be a similar day. It will be variably cloudy and warm. Showers and thundershowers are possible.

Another spell of heat is likely starting early next week. The potential exists for the longest heatwave so far this summer.

Across the Atlantic, the extreme heat that has continued to topple daily, monthly and some all-time records in parts of Andorra, France, Spain, and Italy will spread into the United Kingdom. The national UK record could be challenged or broken on Monday and/or Tuesday. The possibility exists that the UK could see its first 40°C (104°F) temperature on record.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The latest guidance all indicates that July will wind up among the warmer than normal cases.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +3.32.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.226 today.

On July 14 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.054 (RMM). The July 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.778 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 79% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.3° (1.8° above normal).


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