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April 2022


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9 minutes ago, matt8204 said:

You're a true diehard.  Once we get nice days like this, I don't even want to think about snow until November or December.  :lol:

Brutal up there now and in MT where lows will be in the single digits. As wintry there in mid April as it ever gets here. Always fascinating to be in a blizzard especially a historic one like this in the region. They usually get 4-8” type storms not 2 feet. The drifting there must be absolutely insane. The heaviest amounts will probably be near Minot which is under the pivoting upper low. 

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Marine layer/fog bank encroaching into southern Brooklyn and Queens. Coney Island, Rockaway Park in reduced visibility with this dense low cloud deck. Coney Island webcam verifies not a day to be on the beach https://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/coneyisland/?cam=coneyisland unless you're a seagull, or into this type of spring like microclimate on the shore.

Coney-Island-Cam_1649872666236.jpg

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like it’s related to the record SSTs north of Australia and around Indonesia. So a continuation of this persistent La Niña background state. Unprecedented rainfall in Australia during recent months producing the extreme flash flooding. Models are forecasting a big drop in the IOD this summer. This would enhance the La Niña and contribute to an active hurricane season for the Atlantic. It also means that we could be on track for a rare 3rd year La Niña for next winter.  
 

 

 

 

Weren’t they just in an extreme drought and wildfire season?

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Going solely by Mondays and Thursdays (my main campus days), there are some promising signs the warmth will return. While Monday’s out of the picture, next Thursday has a (very slim) shot at being warm again. Getting into the mid 60s on Thursday I think is actually a realistic scenario, though.

For the week after, Monday the 25th is showing some promising signs. The 28th though, not so much (though that date hasn’t gotten into the ECMWF forecast yet).

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15 minutes ago, Tekken_Guy said:

Going solely by Mondays and Thursdays (my main campus days), there are some promising signs the warmth will return. While Monday’s out of the picture, next Thursday has a (very slim) shot at being warm again. Getting into the mid 60s on Thursday I think is actually a realistic scenario, though.

For the week after, Monday the 25th is showing some promising signs. The 28th though, not so much (though that date hasn’t gotten into the ECMWF forecast yet).

In about a month or so it'll be 80+ everyday for the next 4 months. Summer is just around the corner

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

In about a month or so it'll be 80+ everyday for the next 4 months. Summer is just around the corner

My college semester ends on May 5 though (aside from a couple of finals). I just want the warmth to be there by then.

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1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

I reached 80 for a bit over here. 

 

1 hour ago, Juliancolton said:

See, that's just excessive.

Good evening, Irish, Julian. It will take me another 5 years but I intend to give it my best effort. Stay well, as always …

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The warmth will crest tomorrow. Under partly sunny skies, thermometers will soar into the upper 70s and even lower 80s in much of the region. The south shore of Long Island and the Connecticut shore could be exceptions where it is cooler. A shower or thundershower is possible.

Overall, tomorrow through Friday will generally be warmer to much warmer than normal. There could be brief interruptions of the warmth from backdoor cold fronts.

A blizzard continues to impact the Northern Plains. Parts of North Dakota could see 1-2 feet of snow with locally higher amounts near 3 feet by the time the storm ends tonight or tomorrow. Drifts in excess of 6 feet are likely.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around April 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of May.

The SOI was +25.74 today. Today was the 9th consecutive day that the SOI was +20.00 or above. The last time that happened was December 20-28, 2011 when the SOI reached +20.00 or above on 9 consecutive days. The last time a streak of 7 or more such days occurred in April was March 28-April 5, 2011 when the SOI reached at least +20.00 on 9 consecutive days. Then, there was a brief period of much warmer than normal temperatures following the end of that stretch and a longer period of much warmer than normal temperatures starting about 2 1/2 weeks later.  

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.968 today.

On April 11 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.712 (RMM). The April 10-adjusted amplitude was 0.570 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 46% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.5° (0.2° below normal).

 

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4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The warmth will crest tomorrow. Under partly sunny skies, thermometers will soar into the upper 70s and even lower 80s in much of the region. The south shore of Long Island and the Connecticut shore could be exceptions where it is cooler. A shower or thundershower is possible.

Overall, tomorrow through Friday will generally be warmer to much warmer than normal. There could be brief interruptions of the warmth from backdoor cold fronts.

A blizzard continues to impact the Northern Plains. Parts of North Dakota could see 1-2 feet of snow with locally higher amounts near 3 feet by the time the storm ends tonight or tomorrow. Drifts in excess of 6 feet are likely.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around April 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of May.

The SOI was +25.74 today. Today was the 9th consecutive day that the SOI was +20.00 or above. The last time that happened was December 20-28, 2011 when the SOI reached +20.00 or above on 9 consecutive days. The last time a streak of 7 or more such days occurred in April was March 28-April 5, 2011 when the SOI reached at least +20.00 on 9 consecutive days. Then, there was a brief period of much warmer than normal temperatures following the end of that stretch and a longer period of much warmer than normal temperatures starting about 2 1/2 weeks later.  

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.968 today.

On April 11 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.712 (RMM). The April 10-adjusted amplitude was 0.570 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 46% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.5° (0.2° below normal).

 

As always, thanks Don. I wouldn’t want to live in North Dakota, but a quick visit now would be awesome.

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly cloudy and very warm today. There could be an afternoon or evening shower or thundershower. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 80°

Newark: 81°

Philadelphia: 82°

The unseasonable warmth will continue into the start of the weekend.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 61.3°; 15-Year: 61.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 62.1°; 15-Year: 62.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 64.3°; 15-Year: 64.7°

In the Northern Plains, following a blizzard, the temperature fell into the single digits at Billings for the second consecutive day. The previous latest two consecutive days with such readings occurred on April 11-12, 1997. 

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