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April 2022


bluewave
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31 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Good morning after the fact but revisiting a comment made I think in late March about the prolonged hard freeze killing blossoms (buds) this spring.  NOT happening. Magnolia surviving and blossoming right now here at home in Wantage NJ. 

 

 

Good morning Walt. I’m happy to hear it. My Camilla’s, are now in full bloom with the assist of the UHI effect. Perhaps after years and with longevity the trees/shrubs that are at the northern extent of their growing zone are possibly becoming/adapting cold tolerant. Stay well, as always …

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Adding to confirmation of hail reports, Maspeth, Queens pea-sized smattering catching many people on their Saturday morning walks/drive by surprise. Seen pedestrians take cover under canopies and dash back to their car. Convection is very showery and sporadic, in partly cloudy intervals. Will be interesting to see what daytime peak heating will introduce to this airmass.

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8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Tue-Thurs-Fri will see 70s minimum with Thursday touching 80+

Average May temps are in the low 70s

ok

 

Tesday
A 30 percent chance of rain before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 47.
Wednesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 66.
Wednesday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49.
Thursday
A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64.
Thursday Night
A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Friday
A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68.
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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

A warm week on tap. Very May like. I still think we'll see 80s

I am skeptical. There is too much energy in the upper atmosphere to allow it with little if any sustained heat source. There will be lots of showers and thunderstorms in the warmer air for any brief period of time we're in it. Lots of cold air aloft. The atmosphere will destabilize quickly with any daytime heating. We might eke out a 78 one day.

WX/PT

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34 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I am skeptical. There is too much energy in the upper atmosphere to allow it with little if any sustained heat source. There will be lots of showers and thunderstorms in the warmer air for any brief period of time we're in it. Lots of cold air aloft. The atmosphere will destabilize quickly with any daytime heating. We might eke out a 78 one day.

WX/PT

What exactly needs to happen for a warm pattern to sustain itself?

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57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 12z Euro and GEM  are coming in warmer for next week.  Looks like 70s on Tuesday. Then the backdoor stalls near NYC on Wednesday. Very sharp gradient  with 60s east to around 80° south. Then the warm front comes north with highs around 80° on Thursday. 

 

B6D29A56-AA31-4FDF-B55A-A06325D531FB.thumb.png.dc7eddbacd92d9d213dfedcdaa2e4f05.png

56FF5CE9-5AE8-47EF-A38A-2C94C117233D.thumb.png.3db2d20c0ec2fd25da9e427db81821ea.png

3B9D17A5-1C41-4BD9-BFCE-8856685454B0.thumb.png.cedbf30e9b1d0367ee335e66795db91a.png

 

Yup it's coming

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5 hours ago, qg_omega said:

ok

 

Tesday
A 30 percent chance of rain before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 47.
Wednesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 66.
Wednesday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49.
Thursday
A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64.
Thursday Night
A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Friday
A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68.

Ok

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2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

last day of may temps are in  low 70's not the beginning of the month..

Here in Caldwell, the average high for May 1 is just shy of 70 percent so it’s far from unusual for the highs to reach the 70s on any day in May.

By the end of the month the average high is 76, so “low 70s” is actually rather cool for May 31.

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3 hours ago, Tekken_Guy said:

What exactly needs to happen for a warm pattern to sustain itself?

First of all, you have to slow things down. The jet is super-charged with one piece of energy after another moving across the CONUS from the west coast to the east coast. There is no room or time for a high pressure center to sit and pump warm humid air northeastward. There is no Bermuda High. Everything is moving along from west to east. If this continued it would probably yield a cooler and wetter than average summer. But it's unlikely it will continue since this kind of pattern often does occur in April. As we get into May look for the westeriies to begin to retreat northward and the pattern to gradually relax. It might take until the end of May or the beginning of June. I hope not.

WX/PT

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6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Tue-Thurs-Fri will see 70s minimum with Thursday touching 80+

Average May temps are in the low 70s

In New Jersey near Philadelphia maybe. In NYC that kind of outcome is unlikely. There's a chance that the warmest day of the week in NYC would be Tuesday. On Thursday the front separating the warmer air from cooler maritime air mass will be close by.

WX/PT

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I doubt it will look like this when we get closer in time, but this is what warmth looks like. Notice the confluence over the northeastern U.S. and se Canada is gone. Again, do not be surprised when the next run of the GFS looks completely different. 

WX/PT

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_56.png

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3 hours ago, Tekken_Guy said:

Yesterday it looked like Thursday would peak in the 60s. What changed?

Less high pressure over New England now for Thursday so the warm front can push further north. 

12z EPS today 

C78A1CF4-BFC5-44F7-9AEA-70C4742C4604.thumb.png.1049ff6d457823811aeffa70072915e1.png

12z run yesterday


148F056E-86F8-4885-B58C-706E83F92766.thumb.png.fecfbc9ede2f10885f9aa51894890c7d.png

 

 

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