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April 2022


bluewave
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4 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Dude... Some thoughts are better when you keep them to yourself.

It's kind of funny, you just don't have a sense of humor about this.  I posted them on social media and everyone was laughing and agreeing.  The older crowd loses their sense of humor about these things after a certain age.

Maybe not meant for a weather subforum, but there were a series of posts like this on social media, beginning with a "spring treegasm" gif posted by someone.  It was all meant in humor, but in reality the warming climate is causing this outrageous reaction from local vegetation.

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Today should be our first 70°+ day of April as we get into a warm downslope flow.  We got off to the 2nd  highest number of 70° days by the start of spring. But have fallen pretty far back in the pack by April 11th.The recent leaders like 2012 and 2010 were already into double digits by today. So the same theme of an early start to spring getting interrupted by late season blocking. 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Mar 21
Missing Count
1 2012-03-21 6 0
2 2022-03-21 4 0
- 2020-03-21 4 0
- 1990-03-21 4 0
- 1946-03-21 4 0
- 1945-03-21 4 0



 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Apr 11
Missing Count
1 1945-04-11 15 0
2 2012-04-11 11 0
3 2010-04-11 10 0

 

what exactly is causing the allergy season to be much worse this year than last year?  less snow in the winter than last year?  there's a noticeable difference.  The other thing is last spring was drier.

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41 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what exactly is causing the allergy season to be much worse this year than last year?  less snow in the winter than last year?  there's a noticeable difference.  The other thing is last spring was drier.

Earlier start to spring and overall warmer conditions. 
 

https://theconversation.com/pollen-season-is-getting-longer-and-more-intense-with-climate-change-heres-what-allergy-sufferers-can-expect-in-the-future-179158


 

 

 

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51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

For whatever reason last year was much better in that I didn't have any allergies until May and even then it only lasted for a few days.  I've tried various different allergy medication but none of them seem to work very well, especially late at night.  Last night I woke up with a constricted throat and was gasping for air.  It isn't just me either, I spoke to my neighbors, one of them is elderly and has a medical grade air purifier and even with that he told me  he has difficulty breathing with all the allergens in the air.  The filter on his air purifier has to be replaced every week, because it turns black.  It's amazing how much worse this problem has gotten over just a few years.  I was wondering if this is less of an issue when we have our normal snowfall because the snowpack seems to keep the trees dormant longer.  Last year we had good snows into late February and then it was dry so we didn't have the type of allergy season we're having this year.

Is there a way to track how bad it is from year to year the way we track droughts?

 

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8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I have a feeling that's what's driving the higher pollen counts and longer allergy season too.  I could barely breathe last night and I wasn't the only one.  It's these winds we've been seeing here, they are horrible.  My throat was constricted last night and I spoke to some of my neighbors this morning and they aren't handling it well either.

There would be so much money to be made if someone could make a chemical that would stop pollination, sort of like a plant contraceptive.  How many of these things do we need anyway? I don't get why these trees and what not have to be ejaculating every day, why not just do it one day and be done with it?  This is exactly why we need some form of plant castration.  We're swimming in this yucky stuff.

 

That’s a great idea. Let’s keep those stupid trees from reproducing. All they do is soak up carbon dioxide anyway. 
The reality is this, the amount of trees removed on Long Island in the last two decades is tremendous. As a result pollen count is most certainly lower at your house then it was 20 years ago. Your just getting older and having increasing symptoms. 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

My allergies are the worst they’ve ever been in my life. It started the week of St. Patrick’s Day and have been relentless ever since. My allergist just had to change my prescriptions yesterday afternoon 

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15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

My allergies are the worst they’ve ever been in my life. It started the week of St. Patrick’s Day and have been relentless ever since. My allergist just had to change my prescriptions yesterday afternoon 

Yeah, it has been rough for a number of people that I know. Earlier start to the season and more intense. They are even working on a new pollen forecast model.

 

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s a great idea. Let’s keep those stupid trees from reproducing. All they do is soak up carbon dioxide anyway. 
The reality is this, the amount of trees removed on Long Island in the last two decades is tremendous. As a result pollen count is most certainly lower at your house then it was 20 years ago. Your just getting older and having increasing symptoms. 

Those trees don't reproduce in our area..... not in Nassau County, where it's mostly concrete.  Maybe like 0.0000000000000001% of the pollen ever gets used, most of it is wasted and ends up negatively affecting health or just dirtying up the environment.  I just saw a study mentioned on the news about how seasonal allergies dramatically impact heart health too.

Pollination is needed of course, but it doesn't have to be there every day for 3 months....ideally, it should just happen for one week.  There's plenty of pollen that gets expelled in one week.

The pollen count is tremendously high....for some reason last year it was much less (I think a combo of a colder snowier winter and a drier spring.)

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40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it has been rough for a number of people that I know. Earlier start to the season and more intense. They are even working on a new pollen forecast model.

 

Yeah this is a serious issue, especially for those of us who have heart issues as it is.

Today was our first day in the 70s here on the south shore :)  It actually felt better this afternoon than it was yesterday and especially last night.  For some weird reason my allergies are always at their worst very late at night and very early in the morning.

 

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59 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

My allergies are the worst they’ve ever been in my life. It started the week of St. Patrick’s Day and have been relentless ever since. My allergist just had to change my prescriptions yesterday afternoon 

Sorry to hear that.  If you have time please share what he gave you, I've ran through everything from Benadryl to Claritin to Zyrtec....nothing seems to be working.

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Clouds and light rain gave way to warm sunshine. In response, the temperature soared into the lower 70s in much of the region.

Overall, tomorrow through Friday will generally be warmer to much warmer than normal. There could be brief interruptions of the warmth from backdoor cold fronts.

A blizzard is currently raging in the Northern Plains. Parts of North Dakota could see 1-2 feet of snow with locally higher amounts near 3 feet. Drifts in excess of 6 feet are likely.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around April 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of May.

The SOI was +24.44 today. Today was the 8th consecutive day that the SOI was +20.00 or above. The last time that happened was January 20-27, 2012 when the SOI reached +20.00 or above on 8 consecutive days. The last time that happened in April was March 28-April 5, 2011 when the SOI reached at least +20.00 on 9 consecutive days. Then, there was a brief period of much warmer than normal temperatures following the end of that stretch and a longer period of much warmer than normal temperatures starting about 2 1/2 weeks later.  

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.519 today.

On April 10 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.573 (RMM). The April 9-adjusted amplitude was 0.497 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 48% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.6° (0.1° below normal).

 

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Thanks Don, what's the storm total there the past few days? Over an inch?

NYC on the other hand has not seen an inch or more of snow this late in April since 1983 (April 19, 1983).

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Models continuing with the big weather swings theme. 80s for the warm spots the next few days. Then the GEM and Euro have a storm for next week with coastal rains and maybe some high elevation interior snows mixed in.

F64D28E6-EFAA-4ABD-83AA-59DF044A4184.thumb.png.617732a84afbabc220bfdeecdc8f396a.png

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85E2A0CA-B767-45A7-AF3B-D2391B5D14E2.thumb.png.9879baa6b4c39e8cd33c56749c5b55c4.png

That storm has trended north, a few days ago it was a coastal storm with snow in our interior suburbs

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don, what's the storm total there the past few days? Over an inch?

NYC on the other hand has not seen an inch or more of snow this late in April since 1983 (April 19, 1983).

 

At least 1.3” for the month. That’s still not official, as the 1” total from April 11 hasn’t been put into the books just yet.

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Morning thoughts…

It will be variably cloudy and warm today. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region. Southeast Pennsylvania could see the mercury reach 80°. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 70°

Newark: 71°

Philadelphia: 80°

Much of the week will see above to much above normal temperatures. Back door cold fronts could briefly interrupt the warmth in some areas.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 60.9°; 15-Year: 61.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 61.7°; 15-Year: 62.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 63.9°; 15-Year: 64.3°

In the Northern Plains, a blizzard is raging. Bismarck picked up 10.0” snowfall yesterday. That is only the 3rd daily snowfall on record of 10” or more on or after April 12. Records go back to 1874.

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The next 8 days are averaging 58degs.(49/67) or +4.

Reached 75 here yesterday.

Today: 63-69, wind w. to s., p. sunny, 60 by tomorrow AM.

80 for Thursday continues to be a possibility.

57*(70%RH) here at 7am.     59* at Noon.     61* at 1pm, now Fog<1.0mi., variable at 1:30pm.      Cleared up some and late and reached 67* bet. 6pm-7pm.

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14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

In the Northern Plains, a blizzard is raging. Bismarck picked up 10.0” snowfall yesterday. That is only the 3rd daily snowfall on record of 10” or more on or after April 12. Records go back to 1874.

Yeah, this has been the deepest upper low for portions of the West in April. The raw -PNA values don’t really do this system justice. Impressive SOI rise for so late in the season.

 

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6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Very summer like next couple days. Forecast showing mid 80s on Thursday. 

Not surprising to see such early heat, we've had 90s in April before. 

80 in April isn't that unusual.  If you go over the last, say 30 years, I would think about half of those Aprils have seen a high of 80+ on at least one day.

 

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13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Good question.... what changed to cause this big spike in the SOI?

Looks like it’s related to the record SSTs north of Australia and around Indonesia. So a continuation of this persistent La Niña background state. Unprecedented rainfall in Australia during recent months producing the extreme flash flooding. Models are forecasting a big drop in the IOD this summer. This would enhance the La Niña and contribute to an active hurricane season for the Atlantic. It also means that we could be on track for a rare 3rd year La Niña for next winter.  
 

 

 

 

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