April 2022

[rclab]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Good morning Anthony. For you this photo rates as a wall pinup. Stay well and safe. As always ….

[SnoSki14]

Top 10 day today as tomorrow's more cloudy/rainy followed by a 3-4 day cool spell 

[bluewave]

The new micronet shows how much temperature spread there can be within the 5 boroughs of NYC.

 

13th St./16th / Alphabet City	80	56	67	81	56	85	29	0.13	19 6:55pm	11 3:30pm	20.0
160 Ave. / Howard Beach	71	54	61	71	54	91	35	0.13
28th St. / Chelsea								0.09	23 7:25pm	10 6:40pm	16.2
Astoria	73	56	63	73	56	87	33	0.14	26 6:55pm	12 6:55pm	20.1
Bensonhurst / Mapleton	85	56	67	84	56	88	34	0.34			19.7
Bronx Mesonet	73	57	64	73	57	89	38	0.23	28 6:50pm	16 6:55pm	21.4
Brooklyn Mesonet	81	54	66	81	54	89	32	0.29	36 6:55pm	22 7:05pm	20.4
Brownsville	79	55	65	79	55	88	35	0.28
Corona	83	57	67	82	57	85	33	0.07
E 40th St. / Murray Hill	80	57	67	80	57	83	30	0.14
Fresh Kills	87	56	69	87	56	91	33	0.21	27 5:25pm	15 5:35pm
Glendale / Maspeth	81	55	67	81	55	87	32	0.10
Gold Street / Navy Yard	85	58	69	85	58	82	29	0.13	33 5:35pm	15 9:55pm	19.6
Lefferts / South Ozone Park	73	55	63	73	55	90	35	0.14
Manhattan Mesonet	78	59	68	78	59	81	33	0.09	40 6:50pm	19 6:55pm	18.4
Newtown / Long Island City	80	56	66	80	56	85	32	0.10	20 8:50pm	9 1:10pm	19.2
Queens Mesonet	77	55	65	77	55	88	35	0.09	37 7:00pm	21 7:00pm	20.4
Queensbridge / Dutch Kills	82	57	67	82	57	83	32	0.12			16.8
Staten Island Mesonet	85	58	70	85	58	85	29	0.23	34 5:30pm	21 5:30pm	20.0
TLC Center	80	56	66	80	56	84	31	0.10	26 7:10pm	13 7:15pm	20.2
Tremont / Van Nest	71	57	63	71	57	86	37	0.10	21 7:10pm	7 1:10pm	19.9

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Top 10 day today as tomorrow's more cloudy/rainy followed by a 3-4 day cool spell 

i am shocked you are predicting cool weather!

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The new micronet shows how much temperature spread there can be within the 5 boroughs of NYC.

 

13th St./16th / Alphabet City	80	56	67	81	56	85	29	0.13	19 6:55pm	11 3:30pm	20.0
160 Ave. / Howard Beach	71	54	61	71	54	91	35	0.13
28th St. / Chelsea								0.09	23 7:25pm	10 6:40pm	16.2
Astoria	73	56	63	73	56	87	33	0.14	26 6:55pm	12 6:55pm	20.1
Bensonhurst / Mapleton	85	56	67	84	56	88	34	0.34			19.7
Bronx Mesonet	73	57	64	73	57	89	38	0.23	28 6:50pm	16 6:55pm	21.4
Brooklyn Mesonet	81	54	66	81	54	89	32	0.29	36 6:55pm	22 7:05pm	20.4
Brownsville	79	55	65	79	55	88	35	0.28
Corona	83	57	67	82	57	85	33	0.07
E 40th St. / Murray Hill	80	57	67	80	57	83	30	0.14
Fresh Kills	87	56	69	87	56	91	33	0.21	27 5:25pm	15 5:35pm
Glendale / Maspeth	81	55	67	81	55	87	32	0.10
Gold Street / Navy Yard	85	58	69	85	58	82	29	0.13	33 5:35pm	15 9:55pm	19.6
Lefferts / South Ozone Park	73	55	63	73	55	90	35	0.14
Manhattan Mesonet	78	59	68	78	59	81	33	0.09	40 6:50pm	19 6:55pm	18.4
Newtown / Long Island City	80	56	66	80	56	85	32	0.10	20 8:50pm	9 1:10pm	19.2
Queens Mesonet	77	55	65	77	55	88	35	0.09	37 7:00pm	21 7:00pm	20.4
Queensbridge / Dutch Kills	82	57	67	82	57	83	32	0.12			16.8
Staten Island Mesonet	85	58	70	85	58	85	29	0.23	34 5:30pm	21 5:30pm	20.0
TLC Center	80	56	66	80	56	84	31	0.10	26 7:10pm	13 7:15pm	20.2
Tremont / Van Nest	71	57	63	71	57	86	37	0.10	21 7:10pm	7 1:10pm	19.9

Chris, where can this data be found and is it possible to upload it to an external desktop program to save the data and to put it into a spreadsheet and can similar data be found for Long Island and other regions?

 

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i am shocked you are predicting cool weather!

He was correct with his 80s predictions for yesterday 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Continuation of the big weather swings pattern coming up. Areas that were in the 80s last few days will have another freeze by Monday morning. This is followed by a storm system that could have higher elevation wet snows and heavy rains near the coast. This coming week looks to feature the strongest -AO blocking pattern of the year so far. Late April will be a battle between the -AO block and the SE Ridge trying to flex. This will probably mean more back and forth with some cooler back door days and warmer days if the warm front can push to our north. 

 

How close will snow get?  I will be in the Poconos so hoping to see some accumulating snow at 2000 ft just south of I-80

 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

how close will snow get?  I will be in the Poconos so hoping to see some accumulating snow at 2000 ft just south of I-80

 

We just got NAMed with the 12z run. So we’ll have to see what the other guidance looks like. The other models have been more higher  elevation snows and the NAM is outside its best range.

 

 

[crossbowftw3]

Ratios wouldn’t even be 10:1 in any event with temperatures +-1 on either side of 32 so any real accumulations probably do stay elevated 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We just got NAMed with the 12z run. So we’ll have to see what the other guidance looks like. The other models have been more higher  elevation snows and the NAM is outside its best range.

 

 

wow that looks like the GFS from about a week ago lol that someone posted here.  Accumulating snowfall to sea level based on those?  Temps in the mid 30s even here?

How similar would this be to what happened on April 19-20, 1983?  I keep hoping for someone to post maps and snowfall totals from that storm.....

 

[rclab]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We just got NAMed with the 12z run. So we’ll have to see what the other guidance looks like. The other models have been more higher  elevation snows and the NAM is outside its best range.

 

 

 

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow that looks like the GFS from about a week ago lol that someone posted here.  Accumulating snowfall to sea level based on those?  Temps in the mid 30s even here?

How similar would this be to what happened on April 19-20, 1983?  I keep hoping for someone to post maps and snowfall totals from that storm.....

 

Good morning BW, Liberty. It looks like forky and or Anthony found a way to hack the NAM. As always ….

[lee59]

2 hours ago, rclab said:

Good morning Anthony. For you this photo rates as a wall pinup. Stay well and safe. As always ….

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

He was correct with his 80s predictions for yesterday 

even a blind squirrel can find a nut once in a while..

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

even a blind squirrel can find a nut once in a while..

The 80s were well advertised several days out. 

[Brian5671]

Nice day out there today 68 here.  Wrapping up the best week of weather of the spring for sure.

[forkyfork]

good ol' gfs 

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow that looks like the GFS from about a week ago lol that someone posted here.  Accumulating snowfall to sea level based on those?  Temps in the mid 30s even here?

How similar would this be to what happened on April 19-20, 1983?  I keep hoping for someone to post maps and snowfall totals from that storm.....

 

The 12z Euro looks looks more realistic with heavy rain for the coast and wet snow for the higher elevations. 
 

[MJO812]

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 12z Euro looks looks more realistic with heavy rain for the coast and heavy wet snow for the higher elevations. 
 

Nice

Trend south =)

[forkyfork]

more swings on the way

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nice

Trend south =)

Worcester only needs 0.5 of snow to avoid a rare defeat by Boston.

 

Time Series Summary for Worcester Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to May 31	Boston
2022-05-31	53.6	54.0
2021-05-31	76.8	38.6
2020-05-31	44.9	15.8
2019-05-31	51.4	27.4
2018-05-31	96.1	59.9
2017-05-31	78.3	47.6
2016-05-31	47.2	36.1
2015-05-31	119.7	110.6
2014-05-31	85.2	58.9
2013-05-31	108.9	63.4
2012-05-31	39.7	9.3
2011-05-31	92.6	81.0
2010-05-31	64.6	35.7

[winterwx21]

73 degrees here with a dewpoint of 21 and not a cloud in the sky. Definitely a top 10 day of the year.

[Snowlover11]

lol nam though

[Rtd208]

Nice day out there. Current temp 70

High for the day yesterday was 87

Picked up 0.24" of rain for the day yesterday.

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 66 here.  

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said:

lol nam though

18z back to an elevation storm....

[bluewave]

This continuing La Niña background state is on steroids. So it favors another very active hurricane season. Then maybe a rare 3rd year La Niña for next winter. 

 

Enough preamble—what’s the Walker circulation doing right now? I thought you’d never ask. It’s really feeling its oats these days, as several different atmospheric measurements tell us.

First, let’s talk Equatorial Southern Oscillation, an index that measures the relative sea level pressure in the far western Pacific vs. that in the eastern Pacific. When the EQSOI is positive, it indicates lower-than-average pressure over the west (more rain and clouds) and higher-than-average pressure over the east (less rain and clouds), i.e., evidence of a stronger Walker circulation. In March, the EQSOI measured 1.4, the 6^th strongest since 1950.

As I mentioned above, stronger trade winds are key to the La Niña feedback between the ocean and atmosphere. The trade winds were enhanced through March, and remain stronger than average into mid-April. You want a number, you say? Okay! There’s an index that measures the near-surface winds in the central Pacific region of 5°N–5°S, 175°W–140°W; it was 4.3 meters per second (9.6 miles per hour) faster than average in March. This is the strongest March value on record, but there’s a catch—this record only goes back to 1979.

One more index! The central Pacific was much less cloudy and rainy than average in March. We monitor cloudiness via satellite, by looking at how much radiation is leaving the Earth’s surface and reaching the satellites. Less radiation making it to the satellite means more clouds are blocking the path.

The index that measures outgoing radiation (and therefore cloudiness), the CPOLR, tells us that this March featured the least amount of clouds for any March on record over the central Pacific. We’re number 1! Again, though, like the winds, this record only goes back to 1979, when the satellite measurement era began. So, a grain of salt with your records.

One last measurement today—let’s look under the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean. The amount of cooler-than-average water under the surface increased in March. This cooler subsurface water provides a supply of cooler water to the surface, contributing to ENSO forecasters’ prediction that La Niña will remain into the summer. Index-wise, last month the water under the surface was the 9^th coolest March since 1979.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Under bright sunshine temperatures rose into the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region. Tomorrow will be another warm day.

However, a strong cold front will slice across the region bringing showers and perhaps gusty thunderstorms. Noticeably cooler air will then pour into the region and persist through at least the middle of next week. The duration and magnitude of the upcoming cool spell could determine whether April finishes with a cool or warm anomaly.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around April 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of May.

The SOI was +19.54 today. That ended the 10-day stretch during which the SOI was +20.00 or above. The last time a streak of 7 or more such days occurred in April was March 28-April 5, 2011 when the SOI reached at least +20.00 on 9 consecutive days. Then, there was a brief period of much warmer than normal temperatures following the end of that stretch and a longer period of much warmer than normal temperatures starting about 2 1/2 weeks later.  

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.178 today.

On April 13 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.630 (RMM). The April 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.750 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.7° (normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 12z Euro looks looks more realistic with heavy rain for the coast and wet snow for the higher elevations. 
 

isn't this similar to April 19-20, 1983, when there was like 2 inches of snow followed by heavy rain? I keep thinking that was a coastal hugger too

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This continuing La Niña background state is on steroids. So it favors another very active hurricane season. Then maybe a rare 3rd year La Niña for next winter. 

 

Enough preamble—what’s the Walker circulation doing right now? I thought you’d never ask. It’s really feeling its oats these days, as several different atmospheric measurements tell us.

First, let’s talk Equatorial Southern Oscillation, an index that measures the relative sea level pressure in the far western Pacific vs. that in the eastern Pacific. When the EQSOI is positive, it indicates lower-than-average pressure over the west (more rain and clouds) and higher-than-average pressure over the east (less rain and clouds), i.e., evidence of a stronger Walker circulation. In March, the EQSOI measured 1.4, the 6^th strongest since 1950.

As I mentioned above, stronger trade winds are key to the La Niña feedback between the ocean and atmosphere. The trade winds were enhanced through March, and remain stronger than average into mid-April. You want a number, you say? Okay! There’s an index that measures the near-surface winds in the central Pacific region of 5°N–5°S, 175°W–140°W; it was 4.3 meters per second (9.6 miles per hour) faster than average in March. This is the strongest March value on record, but there’s a catch—this record only goes back to 1979.

One more index! The central Pacific was much less cloudy and rainy than average in March. We monitor cloudiness via satellite, by looking at how much radiation is leaving the Earth’s surface and reaching the satellites. Less radiation making it to the satellite means more clouds are blocking the path.

The index that measures outgoing radiation (and therefore cloudiness), the CPOLR, tells us that this March featured the least amount of clouds for any March on record over the central Pacific. We’re number 1! Again, though, like the winds, this record only goes back to 1979, when the satellite measurement era began. So, a grain of salt with your records.

One last measurement today—let’s look under the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean. The amount of cooler-than-average water under the surface increased in March. This cooler subsurface water provides a supply of cooler water to the surface, contributing to ENSO forecasters’ prediction that La Niña will remain into the summer. Index-wise, last month the water under the surface was the 9^th coolest March since 1979.

 

 

Yeah we can't really say the oceans are warming everywhere when we have such a large chunk that are actually cooling down.

How bad would climate change have to get to completely end this cooler water and make even the ocean subsurface warm?

[forkyfork]

i miss yesterday