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2022 Atlantic Hurricane season


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9 hours ago, GaWx said:

This is a new one on the 12Z UKMET fwiw, which is at a very low latitude moving WNW in the E MDR:


       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 :  9.8N  26.4W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 09.09.2022  120   9.8N  26.4W     1009            26
    0000UTC 10.09.2022  132  10.6N  30.4W     1009            29
    1200UTC 10.09.2022  144  11.4N  34.2W     1008            33

 

 Also, just looking at Danielle and Earl, alone, per the NHC progs and extending further out, ACE for just about every day through Sept 12 is likely to be above normal at least through then meaning at or above normal ACE days through a good portion of peak season. And this doesn't include any other TC that may develop. If Earl becomes a major (now forecasted), it alone will generate 4+ per day for those days, which would be at a minimum 160% of the highest ACE average for any day for 1991-2020, which is 2.5 (Sept 15th).

 Per 1991-2020 averages, Sep 1-15 average ACE is 33. 2022 could easily end up 40+ for Sep 1-15. That would be quite an impressive turnaround. If Earl were to become a major on 9/8 and remain that way for several days, a 50+ ACE for Sep 1-15 would not just be a remote possibility, especially considering what else may be out there. I'm still at 120 ACE for this season and 6 NS this month.

My dude, are you trying to pretend this is an active season?

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44 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

My dude, are you trying to pretend this is an active season?

 Nope, I'm showing the stark contrast between August's shutout (0 ACE vs normal of 27 for a deficit of 27) and the much more active first half of September. 9/1-15 has a great shot at 40. It even has a decent shot at 50, which would be vs a 33 normal and thus a surplus of 17. No pretending here as I'm just posting the facts.

 Actually, I never forecasted this season to be active vs 1991-2022 climo like some, but rather forecasted an ACE of 120, which is near the 1991-2020 average. We'll see if it gets there. If 9/1-15 were to get 50, that would bring 2022 to 53 as of 9/15 vs a 1991-2020 average of 70. An active 9/16-10/15 could get it to over 100. The average for 9/16-10/15 is 37.

 

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13 hours ago, GaWx said:

This is a new one on the 12Z UKMET fwiw, which is at a very low latitude moving WNW in the E MDR:


       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 :  9.8N  26.4W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 09.09.2022  120   9.8N  26.4W     1009            26
    0000UTC 10.09.2022  132  10.6N  30.4W     1009            29
    1200UTC 10.09.2022  144  11.4N  34.2W     1008            33

 

 0Z UKMET is the 2nd run in a row with this far south latitude E MDR TC moving WNW. It comes off Africa ~Sep 7th and then forms into a TD on Sep 9th. The 0Z ICON has this as a weak low near 15N, 41W, moving WNW at hour 180 (12Z on 9/12). Keep in mind though that this ICON run also has a cat 4 Earl temporarily stuck under a ridge then moving WNW to NW near 68W:

 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 10.9N  25.0W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 09.09.2022  108  10.9N  25.0W     1009            27
    0000UTC 10.09.2022  120  11.1N  29.1W     1008            30
    1200UTC 10.09.2022  132  11.6N  32.8W     1007            32
    0000UTC 11.09.2022  144  12.5N  36.1W     1007            33

 

 Edit: African satellite pics looking unimpressive plus considering the way the season has gone since Bonnie makes me think this is probably a phantom TD on the UKMET even though the UKMET is fairly conservative.

 

 Update for 0Z GEFS:  Fwiw, the 0Z GEFS is the most active run with this AEW that comes off Africa within 60-72 hours. Some of these members (5 of 31) get into or near the E Caribbean as a H 9/15-16. It will be interesting to see what happens with Earl if this actually ends up an active AEW as Earl's indirect effects on steering would be significant. 

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15 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

4 areas of interest at hour 96 from 12z Euro

Earl, 20/50 area, potential GOM area (?), and AEW coming off Africa

ec-fast_uv850_vort_atl_5.png

But season is over!!!!!!

Most interested in the new AEW.  Low latitude.  Earl easily kicking up some EC surf.  20/50 likely to curve out and very low chance something in GOM.  We'll see but no matter what Danielle and Earl adding to ACE.

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20 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

4 areas of interest at hour 96 from 12z Euro

Earl, 20/50 area, potential GOM area (?), and AEW coming off Africa

ec-fast_uv850_vort_atl_5.png

But season is over!!!!!!

250 mb winds are parallel to the front, satellite shows it is screaming aloft, ~50 knots at 250 mb.  And that screaming jet only occupies more of the Gulf by hour 96 on the GFS.  The entire Gulf looks to have hostile shear per the GFS through the weekend, or any weak LL reflection of the upper low in the Gulf isn't going to develop.  The shear lightens in a week, from completely hostile to somewhat unfavorable.

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1. The 12Z GEFS, like the previous two runs, has a good number of strong members from the AEW coming off 9/7-8 with 8 of 31 that become hurricanes. The timing is slightly slower and the mean position a bit NE of the prior two runs meaning less threat to the NE Caribbean. It looks like the 12Z GEFS control (assuming I'm looking at the right member) plunges down to 939 mb SW of Bermuda on 9/20!
 

2. The 12Z UKMET has it for the 3rd time albeit genesis is delayed til hour 144, meaning a 48 hour delay vs the prior two runs (phantom alert!) and still in a similarly pretty far south latitude in the MDR:

  NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 12.5N  40.6W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 11.09.2022  144  12.5N  40.6W     1010            26

 

3. Meanwhile, the 12Z Euro has this as a very weak low moving W to WNW at 21N, 57W at hour 240 as of 12Z on 9/15. If this were to be near reality and then develop, it would subsequently probably become a threat to the western basin near 9/18-9/20. You can see that the run slides a rather strong surface/H5 high westward to its north throughout the preceding 7 days keeping it from recurving early and instead taking it toward the western Atlantic.

  Is this just a phantom? I wouldn't bet against it, but we don't know yet.

  This is the AEW that @Floydbusterbriefly talks about in his latest video that he shows coming far west on the 6Z GEFS.

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 The 12Z EPS looks a bit menacing with this AEW position at 240, especially considering the high to the north moving west with this. The highest concentration of members with surface lows is right where the 12Z Euro op is at 240. Note that a number of members that earlier in the run were moving WNW curl back to a westerly heading. That is a recipe to bring AEWs into the western basin.

 This run has ~40% of its members with surface lows from this AEW. The prior run had ~60%. So, a tick down fwiw.

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Regarding the AEW I've been discussing that will come off Africa in 24-48 hours:

1. The 0Z ICON has this again and a bit stronger as it gets down to 997 mb. Based on the end of the run's motion and the weakening high to the north, it appears to be fishing.

2. 0Z GFS has this as a hurricane in the MDR after hardly doing anything with it on previous runs. With it much stronger, it also looks to be fishing on this though the run isn't finished yet.

3. 0Z UKMET has genesis much earlier again, similar to the two runs prior to the last one:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  60 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 :  9.5N  19.9W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 08.09.2022   60   9.5N  19.9W     1008            33
    0000UTC 09.09.2022   72  10.6N  21.8W     1009            27
    1200UTC 09.09.2022   84  10.7N  25.1W     1009            27
    0000UTC 10.09.2022   96  10.8N  28.6W     1008            28
    1200UTC 10.09.2022  108  11.3N  32.4W     1007            32
    0000UTC 11.09.2022  120  11.9N  35.7W     1006            33
    1200UTC 11.09.2022  132  12.8N  38.4W     1005            41
    0000UTC 12.09.2022  144  14.2N  40.5W     1004            47

 

4. 0Z CMC is also doing more with this than the prior run though it appears like it will likely fish on this run.

 

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 For the same AEW, the 0Z GEFS is by far the most active run yet with more than half the 31 members with hurricanes. About half of those recurve harmlessly, but the others threaten at least the Caribbean 9/15-17+ fwiw.

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12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 For the same AEW, the 0Z GEFS is by far the most active run yet with more than half the 31 members with hurricanes. About half of those recurve harmlessly, but the others threaten at least the Caribbean 9/15-17+ fwiw.

Your model analysis is awesome Keep them coming

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Definitely a significant uptick in activity on GEFS and EPS. Only saving grace appears to be east coast trough breaks down the Atlantic ridge allowing most members to recurve. Some activity showing in western Caribbean especially on GEFS. First time in a while anything has shown there and the GFS op picked up on this with most recent run. The “dead” season is not dead, by any means, as we continue to move through peak climo. Most development may be fish food but from an ensemble perspective this is the most active look we have seen this season and there is agreement between different suites, something we were lacking last month. It would not surprise me if we were constantly tracking active systems from now through the end of the month

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2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Definitely a significant uptick in activity on GEFS and EPS. Only saving grace appears to be east coast trough breaks down the Atlantic ridge allowing most members to recurve. Some activity showing in western Caribbean especially on GEFS. First time in a while anything has shown there and the GFS op picked up on this with most recent run. The “dead” season is not dead, by any means, as we continue to move through peak climo. Most development may be fish food but from an ensemble perspective this is the most active look we have seen this season and there is agreement between different suites, something we were lacking last month. It would not surprise me if we were constantly tracking active systems from now through the end of the month

Meh. The usual disclaimer about never wishing death and destruction on people, yadda yadda...

However, I'd be lying if I didn't say that guaranteed fish lose of some of their interest for me, even satellite-photogenic high-ACE ones like Sam from last year. It's the days of nail-biting as the models windshield-wiper from New York to Corpus Christi and back, the hype on the Weather Channel, Morgerman nerding out on social media and agonizing about where he's gonna go, etc.

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43 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Meh. The usual disclaimer about never wishing death and destruction on people, yadda yadda...

However, I'd be lying if I didn't say that guaranteed fish lose of some of their interest for me, even satellite-photogenic high-ACE ones like Sam from last year. It's the days of nail-biting as the models windshield-wiper from New York to Corpus Christi and back, the hype on the Weather Channel, Morgerman nerding out on social media and agonizing about where he's gonna go, etc.

Not sure there would be weather forums if all the bad weather stayed out in the Atlantic in summer or around the North Pole in winter…

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53 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Meh. The usual disclaimer about never wishing death and destruction on people, yadda yadda...

However, I'd be lying if I didn't say that guaranteed fish lose of some of their interest for me, even satellite-photogenic high-ACE ones like Sam from last year. It's the days of nail-biting as the models windshield-wiper from New York to Corpus Christi and back, the hype on the Weather Channel, Morgerman nerding out on social media and agonizing about where he's gonna go, etc.

LOL.  "Of course I don't want anyone to get hurt, but I get real excited at the possibility of someone shooting a gun into a coastal crowd", posted from a state safely far away....

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9 minutes ago, Witness Protection Program said:

 

LOL.  "Of course I don't want anyone to get hurt, but I get real excited at the possibility of someone shooting a gun into a coastal crowd", posted from a state safely far away....

Do we have to do this?

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10 minutes ago, Drummer said:

Do we have to do this?

The first part of my post was tongue-in-cheek directed at this sort of reply, which I knew was coming...

I'm an unapologetic "big weather" weenie and I'm on these forums to see Mother Nature put on a show. No one of us has any control over whether storms happen or don't happen or where they go. The best anyone threatened by any hazardous weather (winter, tropical or land-based severe local) can do is prepare ahead of time (hurricane kit, tornado plan, etc), stay weather aware and have multiple ways to receive warnings, and take cover/evacuate as necessitated should one be issued for their area.

 

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40 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

The first part of my post was tongue-in-cheek directed at this sort of reply, which I knew was coming...

I'm an unapologetic "big weather" weenie and I'm on these forums to see Mother Nature put on a show. No one of us has any control over whether storms happen or don't happen or where they go. The best anyone threatened by any hazardous weather (winter, tropical or land-based severe local) can do is prepare ahead of time (hurricane kit, tornado plan, etc), stay weather aware and have multiple ways to receive warnings, and take cover/evacuate as necessitated should one be issued for their area.

 

In New England I do not want to see a repeat of the 1938 hurricane because of the destruction it would cause. Not that I am rooting for a destructive hurricane to hit any other location. 

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